"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Happy Easter! Strong Lightning Storms Possible West of I-75 in Florida Today

A personalized outlook for stronger lightning and small hail activity for later today over the west side of Florida, with a somewhat enhance threat from near Sarasota to just north of Tampa Bay, although anywhere within the light green bounds on the west side has a chance at seeing lightning today. Further east is where some light, quickly moving rain showers could occur with the East Side mostly clearing out to the north, whereas over South Florida some additional showers could occur.

RECAP: Some light showers occurred during the evening along the East Coast from near Port Canaveral south to Miami with totals less than 1/4" is the swiftly moving showers last night through this morning, although some moments of heavier rain were briefly observed. 

TODAY: While a significant round of severe weather will ensue today over parts of the South Central U.S. from Central Texas east and North into Arkansas/ Oklahoma (to name only a few locations), Florida will enjoy a mostly uneventful Easter Sunday, with breezy conditions along the East Coast (watch the rip current threat) and late afternoon lightning storms along the West Coast.  Temperatures aloft today are quite cool/cold today, with forecast soundings looking a bit unusual where the bulk of the moisture will be concentrated in the mid-levels. Therefore, I would not expect that without a dry layer in that area that strong downburst winds would be an issue, although I am considering the potential for a wet microburst given the drier air closer to the surface through which the hail/rain cooled air could accelerate and spread out at ground level.  Otherwise, winds aloft are weak and steering is almost non-existent, so I'd expect the storms to pretty much die out in nearly in place. Could bring in some bigger rainfall totals though where storms decay over.

Afternoon sea breeze winds along the East Coast could pick up a bit during the late afternoon, so despite the comfortable beach side temperatures and partly cloudy to near clear skies and alluring waters which are now warming into the mid-upper 70Fs, rip currents will be a big threat today.  Meanwhile, expect that the thunderstorms will get going in earnest between the hours of 4-5pm off to the west. Anvil debris from these storms could spread out as far as the East Coast after 6:30 - 7:30pm resulting in a thin high overcast near the coast becoming more dense the further west one goes.  As drawn in, expect most of the big storms today to remain west of I-75 North of Tampa but a bit to the East of I-75 toward Ft Meyers.  I am watching the potential for some stronger activity (although not highlighted) in that area further south should the West Coast Sea-breeze manage to penetrate a bit further east and inland from the coast than currently depicted.

MONDAY: Looks at bit like an instant replay with activity perhaps shifting a little more Eastward by 25 miles or so.  A better chance of rainshowers over all of  South Florida into portions of South Central Florida, but believe the thunder will again be late in the day favoring the west side and portions of the interior of South and South Central Florida.

TUESDAY: High pressure which will be generating the stronger onshore winds along the east coast the past few days now will relax eastward a bit in response to the naughty, nasty severe weather maker further West from the Southern Plains through the Ohio River Valley  (an upper level trough and associated co-hortial atmospheric parameters).  In doing so, the surface flow over Florida will become much more SSE and allow moisture from the old sub-tropical system (91L) to run up the spine and east side of the state of Florida beginning overnight Monday (first  South Florida) into the morning hours. There could be some early morning coastal showers as the moisture works at the coast.  By early-mid afternoon through early evening expecting thunderstorms (isolated) to form over South Central to North Central Florida, favoring interior portions of the East Side of the State from Southern Osceola County north toward West Volusia.  The activity will remain west of I-95, but during the period of sunset hours some of the rain/storm activity could reach the East Coast from Brevard County and South in a much weakened state. Too soon to say for sure, but that has been the going trend in guidance the past 24 hours. In either case, it will likely be a cloudy late afternoon into sunset for the East Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Perhaps a very early predawn/dawn time  east coast shower, but more likely the chance will remain just offshore as the upper level system moves further east into the Mississippi River Valley Basin and portions of the Deep South. Much of Alabama looks to be under the gun for severe storms this day as Florida could dry out for a day most everywhere. Could be a warm one too with lack of a seabreeze from near North Brevard northward due to increasing SW flow ahead of the trough and associated mid-spring cold front.

Shes laying on the 'sweet looks' hard and heavy!

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary will be pushing through the Panhandle reaching NW Florida and portions of North Central Florida from mid-afternoon through early evening. Thunderstorms (some strong and maybe isolated severe) will be possible along and just ahead of the front, whereas some more isolated late afternoon storms are possible further south along the East Side of the state, mainly north of Lake Okeechobee.  The cold front now appears it will cross into Central Florida during the mid- late night hours, when perhaps a secondary round of storms will be possible (assuming there is even a first one) over a portion of East Central Florida.  As of this morning, believe that any possible chance of severe weather with and before the actual front will be limited to NW Florida and northern portions of North Central Florida.

FRIDAY: Thunderstorm/rain chances just about anytime over portions of South Central and all of South Florida from early morning through afternoon before the front clears the majority if not all of the state by late Friday afternoon. Winds will shift almost immediately behind the boundary to ENE, and lingering moisture might ensure a continued chance of showers of Southern portions of the state .

NEXT WEEKEND: Looks nice. Another frontal boundary could be on the approach early next week. This would be the final system to shut the severe weather ravaged portions of the country down for good for a while...and bring our last chance of rainfall to the state of Florida as well for a while. But this is still way out and beyond the world of reality to make such a determination. South Florida could really use the rain though, with the worst of the drought conditions now existing over that portion of the state.


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