"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, November 23, 2009

What Does a "Chance of Rain" Mean To You?

( Be glad your weekend game didn't end up this way)
Copy-paste yesterday and put it into today and there you go. No matter what perspective one looks at it from everything about today will be similar to yesterday. There are hints that by noon time and points on we might not see quite as many clouds, but we're pulling threads at that point. Suffice it to say that today it will again get into the upper 70s and be mostly cloudy with some partly cloudy breaks. The wind will be variable at 10mph or less. The culprit is a stationary front situated almost perfectly from Central Brevard to just south of the Tampa area, and it is there that the front will remain for the entire day. Believe it or not, there was 1 or 2 severe thunderstorm warnings issued for parts of the Central Peninsula but no where near here. In fact, other than that storm or two, there was very little rain to be found (no counting the stuff that was further north ala yesterday's morning). Also be advised that the official forecast is calling for a chance of rain. But that can be misleading...that chance means that somewhere in the forecast area of responsibility some measurable rain (at least 0.01") is possible. And that's a big area...and given that the chance is low...that means from the optimist's view the majority of the area (basically all of Central Florida from coast to coast) will remain rain free. I guess you could say the chance of getting rain today is the equivalent of winning 2 bucks on a scratch off lotto ticket.

[But what does a 20% chance of rain mean? From how I've understood it, that would mean that 20% of the area under which the area of which your National Weather Service forecast office has responsibility for could experience measurable precipitation at anytime within the forecast time is not specific down to a city or even a county. So in other words, it's possible that a 20% chance of rain is the equivalent of it raining continuously for 6 hours over only Cocoa Beach and there only (after all, that's less the 20% of all of Central Florida areal coverage speaking).] Of course that would never happen, but the possibility is amusing. (if any one reading this needs to correct me on what this "%-age" means...please do so. Much appreciated).

The same deal looks to be in the offing for tomorrow as well. Sigh. If you want a change then so be it. And at this time it is appearing that such will be in the offing commencing late Tuesday and through Wednesday. Although there is some disparity due to an event that has yet to even materialize, there is consensus that a weak low pressure system will form along our friendly boundary in the eastern Gulf by Monday night that will essentially trace right along or just south of this stationary front. The affects of which could be realized here by sunset Tuesday and anytime Wednesday in the form of rain, and heaven forbid, yes...maybe some thunderstorms around. We'll have to see what becomes of that situation when (or if) this event materializes...but in the interim expect to see more of the same until Thanksgiving morning with an increasing "possibility" of rain from late Tuesday through Wednesday evening.

In the longer term, it still looks like Friday through Sunday might be nearly cloudy free other than maybe some high cirrus clouds (few and far between), with somewhat frisky NW winds on Friday and parts of Saturday. In fact, our chance of rain in the longer term is pretty much zero until we get into the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame of next week. From there on out some really COOL (neat-o) weather is in store for a broad expanse of the southeast states in the form of potentially two severe weather from late next Monday through Wednesday...and then the next ..NEXT weekend (not the one coming up). Way out there, huh? (both in time and perhaps thinking). And for good measure as long as we're at it, nothing tremendously cold is knocking at our chamber door either until at least the second week of December.

In summary, for Thanksgiving: cloudy to partly cloudy with a high in the mid 70s and a slight chance of showers the first half of the day. Clearing overnight into Friday with temperatures varying little on Friday hanging around the upper 60s and maybe even dropping during the day (hence, the warmest part of Friday might actually be in the morning). Saturday and Sunday look for lows in the mid-upper 40s inland and upper 40s to near 50 along the coast with highs in the mid-60s.

Further Extended: If indeed the next two systems develop as mentioned above, a return to warmer (maybe even warmer than of late) is in the offing for Monday night and Tuesday. But holy smokes, we haven't even digested the turkey let's save more of the investigation for at least until we're eating left over pumpkin pie.

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