"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 16, 2017

Active July Pattern , Monday-Thursday

Sunday Morning - Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY: No changes from previous post of the other day. Pattern change from days of late slowly in progress today most notably will begin for the wee hours Monday morning as surface winds along the east coast (at least north of Palm Beach County) become light offshore (westerly) before day break as opposed to easterly or near calm . Mid-level winds also to shift from light east to west to more  from a southwest component as the mid-level ridge axis drops from Central Florida late today to near Lake Okeechobee  by tomorrow morning (though quite light).

Otherwise, for today moisture to be ample enough though some dry - pockets (like today) might well remain. 

Sea breeze converge appears will be maximized mainly North of "Dead Central" across the Interior from the Suwanee River Basin south into parts of eastern Lake County/ Western Volusia then south-southwestward  toward Central and  eastern Polk county (?) , but over all coverage appears will restricted inland except north of Ormond Beach. Better chances of seeing activity nearer the coast from St Augustine  northward.

Increased moisture was anticipated in previous post for South Florida which was the case, and as a result rain showers were set off  earlier day  ; however, at this stage it appears said activity set off outflow boundaries that 'might' have scoured out large portions off inland South Florida unless those areas can 'recover their loses'    for late day storms (which is always possible).

Not all areas in 'Orange" will see thunder or even rain today; most will be more isolated
except north of I-4 over the interior toward I-10

MONDAY: The GFS and now the NAM as well as other models have shown a curious 'thing' to occur tomorrow over the peninsula taking the form of what appears would be something like a mesoscale, perhaps heat induced surface low pressure circulation centered either near interior North Central or South Central Florida.  All in all, it looks like a thermal trough up and down the spine of the state might evolve, which in some cases results in long, prolonged rainfall eventually by the end of the day with quite a bit of cloud cover. Time will tell. Often in such cases , if this does occur, we might see more storm coverage than anticipated. 

Otherwise, it appears some storm might even come to be on the 'stronger side' from near Canaveral and North from near Orlando and east toward Off shore up toward Daytona Beach and then more toward I-95 for  North Brevard late in the day. Some activity might be able to drift offshore even from Brevard and north (eventually), bit in the form of merely light rain or thunder is too soon to say.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: So far these days appear will carry on the same themes more or less. Light west to east steering, ample moisture, and sea breeze collisions point to a rather 'on the wetter side' for July pattern, but not unusual.  Biggest hazard will be lightning and expect there will be quite a bit of it. Some storms might be able to press offshore the east coast or form near it even on some days with the strongest activity mostly limited to 5 miles of more from the coast except north of I-4; however, more details are needed for refinement as these days come . 

Expect we might be hearing that on either one or both of these days that 'some storms might be strong' (due to stronger surface wind gusts near the heavier storms  later in the day). All storms will bear the hazard of lightning, however, and seeing as how some of this activity could be close to the coast the threat of cloud to ground strikes near the beaches prior to the beginning of rainfall would present a precarious situation if that is the case.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Storm coverage might begin to decrease overall with most activity limited to 'away from the immediate coast' ..but again too far out in time to say.  The GFS shows most activity restricted to interior Central Florida during the late day sea breeze collisions with South Florida drying out a bit.

Over all, the next week looks like it could carry on perhaps three different summer themes in groups of 2-3 days at a time as the varying ridge axis' at different levels of the atmosphere toggle for position. Outside of that, what occurs each day might be slightly dictated by remaining boundaries that lie dormant from the previous day's activity.

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