"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Mild to Very Warm the Next 10 Days (at least)

"..they will be as many as the sands of the seashore"
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Warm to 'very' warm with temperatures running 'at to above' normal and muggy with early morning fog or low clouds possible any of those days. Warmest days appears will be Sunday and Monday (Tuesday south of 528) as well, with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs in a few locations away from the immediate sea shore.  Afternoon high temperatures though will largely be dependent upon cloud cover or lack thereof on any given day.

A 'cool' front is forecast to sink south down the peninsula on Tuesday with cloud cover and possible some showers Central late Tuesday afternoon into early evening. Wind almost immediately wings around to northeast to east behind the boundary so lows might never get below the lowers 60Fs along the immediate east coast south of The Cape along the A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral south through the keys Wednesday, Thursday mornings. 

...The Seventh Step

NEW YEAR's EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY: Chances of cloud cover and maybe some sprinkles near the coast as a secondary 'cold plunge' impacts most of the west half of the U.S., especially the Inter-Mountain Regions of the Rockies eastward into the North Central Plains state. Meanwhile, Florida will continue to be 'the hot spot' as herds of wild buffalo and snow geese flock south, man your 'insanity' locals. Temperatures will be crazy cold out west, but Florida will remain 'high' and for the most part, 'dry' as well.

With a frontal passage on Tuesday, the quick wind shift would induce a fairly long lasting 'coastal trough' along the Gulf Stream waters and to the east of them which could induce periods of cloud cover or even some fog mostly during the over nights to early-mid morning time frames once again. no truly dry air is foreseen nor are cold temperatures forecast the entire first week of January (so far at least).

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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Highs into the 80F's - Strong Storm Chance Dwindling?

TODAY: Warm with a southerly wind becoming more SSW-SW during the day, highs in the upper 70Fs into the lower to mid 80Fs mainly south of I-4 with warmest temperatures inland (Central) and all of South Florida away from bodies of water. 

Chances of showers south of I-4 after 3pm through dark, but not thoroughly convinced these will take on the form of thunder though there is a remote chance. Overall, the scenario from the last post is becoming 'less threatening' in regard to severe weather, with some guidance suggesting that many areas might not see rain at all today or tonight. The upper level trough is deepening more toward the west toward Texas rather than further east with the most upper level support for a continued QLCS type  (Quasi-linear Convective System) squall line dampening out as the lower level features outrun that upper level support.

A tornado watch is currently in place across most of the Panhandle this morning as the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK. , suggests that it might need to be extend further east in their 7:AM update.

THIS AFTERNOON: Again, warm this afternoon outside of any shower chances. The cold front on approach is not forecast to reach diagonally across Central Florida until well after midnight. Some guidance suggests that the front itself will go through completely 'dry' other than cloud cover with not a significant drop in temperature behind the boundary, with lows falling behind it only into the lower 60F's south of a line running from Titusville toward Tampa Bay . Though some stronger storms are possible near I-4,   winds from the surface up through the mid-upper levels will become increasingly unidirectional with height in the midst of poor lapse rates and weak surface instability; thus, this appears to  be a cause for a weakening 'squall line' with time with some moderate to heavy rain showers with some lightning aloft) possible as far south as shown. As of this early pre-sunrise hour, the graphic below 'might' even be overly generous on the 'strong storm' side of things

(though some glancing strikes are possible a bit further south as well.)

CHRISTMAS EVE: Cloudy with a chance of light showers after 7PM. The better 'rain chance' now appears will occur from after 2:30 pm through 6:pm prior to what will remain of a pre-frontal 'trough' mainly south of I-4. The front itself will still be many hours away. Temperatures running mainly in the lower 70Fs most of the evening with 'gooey' air mass conditions.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Front will have cleared to South Florida by mid-morning in a vastly weakened state with a lingering boundary but barely even clearing the state. Cloud cover to decrease all of North Florida at first into Central but suspect some high clouds might begin to stream back in later in the day from the southwest. Highs mainly in the mi-upper 60Fs toward 70F , warmest South Central and South Florida.

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: No longer looking to even be a hint of 'cold'. Wind to veer more northeast to east northeast remaining light with lows in the lower 60Fs near the coast and a bit cooler inland (colder north Florida). This day might also see cloud cover to partly cloudy skies with showers near the east coast south of Sebastian inlet as the frontal boundary remnants begin to lift back north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday might be a bit cloudy once again but temperatures return to the lower-mid 70Fs , coolest at the coast north of Fort Pierce as sea surface temperatures off Cape Canaveral this morning have been hovering around the 67F -68F mark, and the light onshore flow will affect those nearest the ocean for the next several days. Clearing possible though on Sunday, so as of now, Sunday looks like the nicest day post-Christmas.

BEYOND: Next front not slated until another week from now, in the meantime we'll experience continued somewhat cooler evening and mild afternoons, running close to or a bit above seasonal norms.

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Monday, December 22, 2014

"Weeping May Endure for a Night, but Joy Comes in The Morning!"

TODAY: The 'Winter Season" Officially began at 6:03PM Sunday Evening. Comfortable temperatures with little fan fare other than persistent bands of light to moderate rain across mainly North to far North Central prevailed under otherwise pleasant temperatures and increasing cloud coverage which we will be under off and on through the first parts of Christmas Day, though not sure South Florida will ever clear.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY: Continued pleasant and 'muggy' conditions as far as December norms run, with temperatures running at to a bit above 'normal'. A cold front will be approaching Central Florida late Wednesday into early Christmas Morning. Otherwise, warm again Tuesday but not as warm as could be due to cloud coverage. Rain chances look to be very low however

WEDNESDAY= CHRISTMAS EVE: Chance of strong to near severe storms appears limited to a line running from Southern Volusia County west toward north side of Tampa Bay and north. Heavier rainfall totals are also in for the making especially closer toward I-10 as a series of 'impulses aloft' pass along the slowly progressing frontal boundary.


Rain chance then increase for all of Central Florida after 1pm Christmas Eve Day and more say as we head toward the 2:30pm time frame through 10pm. Latest guidance in the rainfall fields are not showing much in rainfall totals however, likely due to poorer low level lapse rates and antecedent cloud coverage despite the favorable winds that otherwise could call for severe weather; hence, no bets are solid on whether strong severe storms could occur  , but the rain chances do look pretty good, if even for only a brief period in any one location. It does look like it could be raining in various locations across almost any where in Central or North Florida during the normal Christmas Eve church services, but exactly where is not possible to determine at this time.

"Weeping May Endure for a Night. but JOY Comes in the Morning"

THURSDAY = CHRISTMAS DAY: The front will be clearing Central Florida around midnight through sunrise Christmas Morning with WNW-NW winds to follow. It does not look now that it will be either as cold as previously thought nor as windy .  Clouds might be slow to clear though, especially running along a line from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota zones, and even so Central should be clearing from north to south through late morning into early afternoon . Otherwise, any showers will be long gone out of Central although a stray one cannot be ruled out up until around the 1pm hour across that region. For the most part though, clouds will be the rule until later in the day except South Florida will they will persist. Christmas Day looks to be mild with temperatures mainly in the 60Fs and closer to the lower-mid 70Fs parts of South Central / South Florida, though again, clouds might be about the only issue for at least part of the day.

BEYOND: Not much now to speak of. Guidance is backing off an any significant weather catastrophes to head toward Florida but balances that off with continued mild temperatures running near to above normal (though not 'hot' by any means). The coldest day over all foreseen now is the Day After Christmas and even that is nothing more than what we've already experience more than once since November.


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Friday, December 19, 2014

Increase in Rain Chance Late Sunday - Possibly Severe Storms Tuesday Evening

But He replied to them, "When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.' "And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times? "

TONIGHT - SATURDAY: Little change in the current pattern in all regards with periods of some high clouds and cool temperatures The real shift in the pattern commences on Sunday as winds become southerly and a warm up ensues. There has been not a whole lot of change since the previous post nearly   5 days ago (at least), but guidance has jumped to and fro   in regard multiple times since it was made in regard to 'will it rain or not ?' 'if so, "will it be storms or only light rain or drizzle?' or "will it get really cold perhaps colder than it's been yet this season?" , or "will it not get all that cold as it now looks after all"? 

These are all questions that have arisen off and on the past few days   up through this morning   with the final resolve being right  back where we started and that being, 'a chance of some storms possibly strong to severe and perhaps some localized heavy rainfall totals(for this time of year) coming up next week".  
The other question then  was, "but if so, then when ?" .

SUNDAY-MONDAY:    6:03PM  WINTER BEINGS Sunday evening. 

Increasing high clouds working down into the mid levels from west to east during the day. Chance of rains along the west coast perhaps before dark spreading east with time by late night and continuing into most of Monday across Central Florida. There is a chance of some thunder with this activity as well but 'severe' storms (so far) will probably not be an issue with the position of the jet stream as being depicted. But wouldn't fully count it out either. Even if there is only heavier rain storms, could be some pretty strong wind gusts.

TUESDAY: Previously the GFS was showing two fronts going through and one lifting back north, but this is no longer the case. No fronts ever actually go through but do approach North Central Florida before lifting north and setting up for 'Round 2'. Both Monday and Tuesday might be cooler than depicted due to cloud cover and the low sun angle this time of year but otherwise we could be seeing mid-70Fs for temperatures  .     

LATE TUESDAY: Model runs this morning are not easily accessible from either of the two more commonly utilized websites, but if the third option  being seen is correct ( for the second run in a row now) the GFS is implying that there is a chance of Severe Weather Late Tuesday toward late afternoon or early evening up through perhaps as late as near sunrise Wednesday morning or the morning of Christmas Eve. 

If the GFS implications are correct, a Tornado Watch might well be necessary especially all of Tuesday night across all of Central and North Central Florida . At time, it appears there might end up being a  QLCS Squall Line moving through with precedent storm cells forming as well, but time is still early and things could change easily, and if so, we'll be able to whittle down to a more realistic time frame.

CHRISTMAS EVE:  Gradual clearing and breezy after mid-morning Wednesday morning with W-WNW winds gusting over 22 mph in the afternoon and cool with highs in the lower 60Fs falling quickly with the setting sun. After dark, lows falling into the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs and winds dying down through out the night and into Christmas Day.

CHRISTMAS DAY: High pressure following the stormy previous days will be centered very close to over head making for a clear , nearly calm day, with highs in the mid-60Fs , maybe a bit cooler. Winds then swing to more southerly by the next two days as another front approaches. 

Will that front also poise for another potential severe bout? So far, it's up and down , back and forth on the verdict, way too far out in time to say, but wouldn't surprise me one bit. These kinds of events tend to come in families during the winter months, as the period from around the  Dec 38 -January 3rd continues to reflect a wavy, disturbed weather pattern overall.

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Sunday, December 14, 2014

Pleasant This Week - Big Changes Loom From DEC 21 - 31

Cold Winter Morning Collides with High Tide

TODAY- UPCOMING WEEK: Very pleasant, cool weather continues with   colder mornings as high pressure at the surface is to migrate across Florida early in the week with two possible 'frontal passages' on the way which will go through dry, at least until possibly next weekend. Monday and/or Tuesday could be near "Chamber of Commerce" like days with near calm winds with abundant sunshine, though there are hints we could be in for some periods of Cirrus Cloud decks streaming over head though timing is difficult to nail down (but there does appear that some on Monday which might hold temperatures down a few degrees in the afternoon if so, and not be as stellar as was advertised in previous model runs). Otherwise, The next front appears slated for early Wednesday as a non-event only to reinforce the current conditions we've seen of late.

BEGINNING THE DECEMBER 21 - 25 TIME FRAME: The GFS has hinted for a number of runs the past few days that some big changes could be in-store for the Eastern half of the U.S. in various ways, especially along the Gulf Coast states, Florida and up the eastern seaboard.  It's too early to say for certain what and how things will manifest, but the implication is for one if not two 'potential' near severe-like opportunities very close to Christmas Day as well as 4-6 after Christmas Day as well could be on the Holiday Platter. It's all speculation this far in advance, but such a pattern has occurred in the past in recalling a year when a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued on Christmas Eve and of the same year a Tornado Watch on New Year's Eve for once the pattern sets up, shes' good to go.  We'll just have to see what the winds of change will roll this way.

Otherwise, expect continued cool to very cool mornings with some slight modification in the morning temperatures toward the east coast later in the week but afternoons for the most part will begin to see the steady stream of the 70Fs range from low to mid 70Fs for the most part, with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland toward and into the lower-mid 50Fs (mainly at the east coast beaches) later in the upcoming week.

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Thursday, November 27, 2014

Colder Yet On Bleak Friday - Warming Trend Sunday through End of Next Week!

FRONT to Clear Central between 2-5PM.
Image shows position of today's front per the GFS model at 4 PM
HAPPY THANKSGIVING: Odd temperature spread across the state this morning, with the cold air not playing favorites. Some areas in South Central are colder than in Pensacola even as a second front will go through 'dry' today. It seems to be easiest to locate outside of a wind shift line by the dew points at 2000 ft (or the standard 925mb layer) as shown above. The boundary being marked by the moisture to dry air (shown in whites and grays).  Otherwise, breezy this afternoon with winds from the NW and highs in the lower to mid 60Fs with only few to none clouds over all but a quick temperature fall late in the day as the sun begins to set.

BLEAK FRIDAY: Lows ranging through the 30Fs from the Daytona to Crestview Line (interior mainly) and then a cross the lower to mid 40Fs most everywhere else except parts of South Florida. Tomorrow afternoon will be cooler than this afternoon with highs in the 50Fs and up to the lower 60Fs Central and South (where it will be a bit warmer yet still). North winds but not strong or gusty at all.

SATURDAY: Wind begins to swing around to the NE  on Saturday with a warm up toward highs similar to what today's highs will be, perhaps a few degrees warmer. The true warm up begins overnight Saturday night toward Sunrise Sunday as easterly winds will bring mid-upper 60Fs to the east coast toward sunrise Sunday Morning but coler still inland as winds decouple overnight away from the beaches (mainly locations west of US1 will be the coldest) but warmest air will be found east of A1A from Canaveral and south.

SUNDAY: Highs in the lower to mid-70Fs  with east wind around 8-12 mph, very pleasant.

MONDAY - THURSDAY: Very little temperature variations along the immediate beaches with round the clock 70Fs or close to it. I bit warmer inland during the day, but also cooler inland over night. Prevailing east winds at a deeper level of the atmosphere will commence to allow low topped stratocumulus clouds to advect on shore at any time, but wouldn't expect any showers except south of Brevard County along the east coast, and light ones at that. 

WHEN IS THE NEXT COLD FRONT?: Good question, none for seen within 7 days and beyond that we lose model credibility so won't even surmise. The Jet Stream has been digging south over the East half of the country for quite some time, and after tomorrow will begin to lift up and out to the east of the U.S., and a much broader disorganized 'split flow' is to develop. 

As such, much of the country north of the Mason - Dixon line will be warming up next week with the colder air in general well to the north other than across parts of the Rocky Mountain region.  

Images below are radar estimated rainfall totals from the past couple of days off the JAX and MLB radars. The highest reported unofficial total I could find was a location in Edgewater where a CoCoRAHS observers came in with 8.10".  As surmised in a previous post, the biggest totals appears would be from Port St. John and north, as so it was (based on GFS model continuity).

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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Rapid Clearing This Afternoon, Much Cooler through Friday

Storm Moves in on a Canaveral Marina Tuesday, Cape Canaveral Florida

TODAY: No change from previous post. At time, it is still raining lightly at this location but clearing is coming in a big way later today accompanied by drier and colder air. But before that time, the actual cold front is nearly knocking on the door. .. as can be seen below. The front will be crossing Brevard County as a reference point between 6:45 AM through around 7:30AM on the way to clear the state well before noon time with a rapid temperature drop by as much as 20F degrees over the first hour or so after  'fropa' abbreviated way of saying, 'frontal passage'. 

Clearing of the skies is a bit lagging, however, and some light rain to perhaps a drizzle like condition could well follow the front for several hours while the colder air advects in; therefore, do not anticipate the first half of the day to be very pleasant at all, but conditions will improve rapidly sky wise this afternoon for the most part from west to east.

From the NWS, Melbourne, FL LDIS Plots Web Page showing temperatures at 6AM

Infrared imagery shows the sharp clearing   anticipated
 in the previous post off to the west of the state at 5:45AM
The dashed line is a guess on about when that clear air will arrive, but low clouds linger until that time
THIS AFTERNOON: With clearing there might be a very brief warm up to the lower or 'maybe' a middle 60F, but it will be brief for as the sun sets so will the temperatures descend. Temperatures this afternoon will mostly be in the middle to upper 50Fs as winds blow from the NW at about 10-18mph, and could pick up more once the skies clear   and heating tries to mix in with the equation of cold air advection  from the NW. A secondary front will edge on by over Thanksgiving which will go by un-noticed but for the chance that the wind will back toward the WNW a bit before it goes through.

THANKSGIVING: Clear with lows in the middle 40F's (interior north), through upper 40Fs to near 50F at the beaches. NW-WNW wind around 10 mph picking up to 15-20 mph gusts in the afternoon for a time but rapidly dying off inland after dark. The wind might remain a bit elevated though east of the intracoastal due to mixing primarily from the cold air advection with the warm air above the waterways. Highs in the lower to mid-60s; warmest South Florida and South Central, with only lower 60Fs north of I-4 for the most part.

FRIDAY: Colder yet still in the morning as the second front will have cleared the area. Lighter wind though as day works on through with interior north lows in the lower 40Fs in some locations, more widespread mid 40Fs though to upper 40Fs near the beaches. NW wind around 10-15mph with highs in the mid 60Fs.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Both days are very similar as winds begin to swing around to the north and then northeast to ENE on Sunday. Both evenings all weekend the winds decouple inland overnight to near calm to 5 mph while at the coast they might remain up just a bit. Slight warming trend along the east coast overnight Saturday especially notable at the beaches by Sunday morning. Morning lows at the beaches could be in the lower to mid 60Fs with highs around the lower 70Fs with mostly clear to partly cloudy pancake stratocumulus clouds occurring here and there but no rain in sight (for quite a while).

MONDAY: Temperatures return to 'normal' round the clock from Monday through most of the rest of the week. It's quite some time before another cold front is being foreseen, and even rain chances are close to zero until around perhaps Saturday.

  Mini-Golf Anyone?

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Monday, November 24, 2014

Larger Rainfall Totals / Narrow Strong Storm Corridor Both "Possible" Tuesday/Wednesday

Cape Canaveral Path Early Monday Morning
TODAY: Warm with near record highs possible. Vero Beach looks to have the best chance of tying or breaking a record as of noon time but the area down into West Palm Beach appears to be yet even warmer still with a current temperature of 87F and other upper 80Fs being shown 'down there'. Guidance shows dry today, but there is a model that has twice now shown the potential for a strong storm near to offshore the Ft. Pierce to West Palm region (perhaps forming off shore), and with another late day over Central Brevard though not as strong. At this time of writing  it is difficult to come upon exactly why this would be; however, it is worth noting.  

TONIGHT-TUESDAY: A frontal boundary now across the Western Panhandle will work south, and as it stands now will not make it as far south as 'Dead Central" or south of there as was mentioned yesterday. Instead it comes closer to wavering near the I-4 Corridor to North Brevard  at the surface, but into the lower to mid-atmospheric levels it is titled back to the north such that at 5000 feet the front is still back over the panhandle. Meanwhile, disturbances CURRENTLY emanating off the mountains of Mexico (see second image below) could ride along the frontal boundary to approach Central Florida as soon as 9AM Tuesday morning, but exactly where the front is laying at that time and the strength of said disturbances will hugely determine the degree of rainfall and where it will fall. 

The latest GFS (Global Forecast System forecast model) is fairly consistent run-to-run showing a swath of largest totals surpassing 2" over a 24 hour period from near a JAX to CEDAR KEY zone south to a line running from near PT. ST JOHN toward SARASOTA on the West Coast (with highest amounts last run over Volusia and Northern Brevard County close to 3", yet the NAM model shows nothing even close to said amounts).

This is of the classic TYPE of "Central Diving Line" or "Dead Central" set ups that might be evolving (as referred to in these posts) for a strong storm to form along the southern periphery of the heavier rainfall totals demarcation. As such will be aware that though upper level temperatures are not as cold as cold be, the best shearing winds near the surface will be right  along and near the southern boundary of heaviest cloud cover and/or rainfall, with the best instability  all south of it. As such, will watch the zone where the best wind shear meets the instability as  shown below  by the purple 'just in case zone'  of 'Dead Central" or 'The Central Dividing Line Zone" anytime from between 11:AM Tuesday through as late as 5:AM Wednesday morning (around the time the actual front actually comes through).

The reason for that latter time frame is that the latest GFS shows a very sharp wind shift line and temperature drop with the front (by as much as a 20F degree temperature fall across the boundary) which could make for a quick 'TOUCH AND GO" spin up like 'tornado in the dark' which are but impossible to forecast or foresee outside of near the time and said type of radar return pops up. Chances are no such creature will evolve though.

SPC (The Storm Predication Center) does have Central Florida in a 'marginal severe threat' on their web page though it is a larger swatch on their page. Would be aware that heavier rain fall and colder air could send outflow into the warmer moist air south of the front which could 'self-induce' a 'quick severe or strong storm' if guidance of GFS is correct
WEDNESDAY: Rainfall could last off and on as late as around 9-11AM Central even behind the front, but RAPID CLEARING commences with the wind shift so by noon-2pm most of Central would be scoured out by much drier and colder air. It is this clearing that might be the bigger story when all is said and done.

The front is forecast to make a rapid drop from Central Florida to clearing South Florida between 7AM and noon. If so, the warmest time of day will be right near to before sunrise. With clearing skies, recovery into the lower 60Fs is possible though it could also be quite breezy with winds from the WNW-NW at 18 G 28 for a time, especially by the early afternoon Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THANKSGIVING:  Sunset Thanksgiving eve yields clear or 'near clear' with temperatures in the mid-upper 50Fs with slowly dying off winds from the NW-NNW.

Thanksgiving dawns with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland and closer to 49F - 52F along the immediate east coast as winds become more northerly with time at about 10-18mph during the afternoon. (hopefully less!).

BEYOND through Weekend: Wind very slowly shifts around to northeast and eventually east-northeast by the end of the weekend at 10-15 mph, but dying off inland at night where winds will decouple and allow colder overnight lows over the interior zones. Dry but with continued 'below' normal high temperatures and near normal low temperatures. Highs warming to the lower-mid 70Fs by Monday but look to be in the upper 60Fs and lower 70Fs Saturday and Sunday. The next cold front could be another week away going into early December. 

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Sunday, November 23, 2014

Large Rainfall Totals Possible Late Tuesday/Wednesday

At 6AM A warm front is lifting north toward South Georgia (early this afternoon).
The boundary is marked mainly by increasing dewpoints in the 70Fs and winds becoming southeast to south southeast
TODAY: Very vigorously dynamic storm system in the wind fields department affecting all of the southeast for the next few days with multiple changes and variations overall across Florida . Wind today to become more SE-SSE by mid-afternoon with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs. Over the past 30 hours, the temperature at my location has only varied by about 2 degrees over the entire time due to strong onshore winds gusting to above 25 mph across tempered ocean waters. 

Little change from the last post though overall, with a chance of a shower or two, or even a thunderstorm later today mainly across parts of East Central north from Osceola to Brevard toward Ormond Beach.   Winds also will be decreasing later today, and could be a notable decrease at least for a short times as the warm front passes by any one location. Clearing skies as well, but not totally clear per se, but much improved skies from I-4 and south mostly as the morning wears on.

MONDAY: Wind becoming more SW and warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80Fs (South). Chance of showers actually looks pretty low except parts of North and North Central. A cold front will work its way into Central by Monday night though which will make for a chance of showers and some thunder.

TUESDAY: This is where it gets very sticky. The frontal boundary might get as far south as Lake Okeechobee or not quite that far south, but a mid level area of low pressure is forecast to form along the boundary across the Central to Southwest Gulf of Mexico and lift east and east northeast overnight into Wednesday. In doing so, the surface front could retrograde back north in the presence of a 100kt + jet streak across North Florida .and much stronger than normal winds below that as well down to 4000ft above the ground (from the southwest). The latest GFS showed tremendous amount of BULK Shear across Central and North Central with instability limited to the 'north-south dividing line' and south. This COULD set the stage for severe weather across Central Florida, but so far that has not been directly enough implied; however, larger rainfall totals have been during the time between late Tuesday afternoon through as late as mid-day Wednesday. Timing will still need to be refined in those regards, if they do in fact manifest at all.

Worse, it appears the front could slide south by Wednesday morning setting up a cold front with over running situation meaning moderate rain in the presence of  mid-50F degree temperatures. Overall, Wednesday is not looking like a pleasant day, at least not the first half of the day.

THANKSGIVING: Front clears state with lows in the low through upper 40Fs and highs in the lower to mid-60Fs, but skies do look almost entirely clear for this day.

WEEKEND TO COME: So far looks very mild, with cool but not cold temps, and no rain to be seen  

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Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Big Warm up on Sunday!

Early Afternoon Visible Satellite Imagery and Notes Referring To Sunday to Come
TODAY :  Cloud cover looks like it could continue south of I-4 for much of the remainder of the day. Though some clearing is sinking southward there might still remain some higher clouds later to come with the lower sun angel that would create the illusion of no significant change overall with the lower sun angle after 4pm. Otherwise, continued quite cool with upper 50Fs to around 60F most areas and lower 60Fs further south. 

TONIGHT-THURSDAY : Thursday might compete with this morning in some areas with low temperatures but the 17F degrees reported in two official locations in the northern panhandle might be hard to beat and don't' suspect those readings will be eclipsed. Lighter wind tonight though and more clearing than last night might permit some areas inland to come down a few notches from this mornings lows across parts of Central except right at the immediate beach from Canaveral and south where a more northerly wind might allow temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than last night. Wind to become more north to north north east on Thursday but the warm up will only be minimal with highs in the mid 60Fs most areas.

FRIDAY :  Winds over night become more NNE-ENE which should keep the overnight lows much warmer at the beach-sides with highs closer to the lower 70Fs but perhaps a bit breezy, otherwise nothing much to speak of.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY  :  A very potent disturbance coming out of South Central Texas will swoop across the Deep South rapidly from Saturday through Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic states, but a cold front is not in toe with it. This system could set up for some strong storms and maybe some tornadoes near the Gulf Coast from Eastern Texas, Louisiana and even toward the Western Florida Panhandle going into early Sunday. Otherwise, return southerly flow over Florida will commence in earnest over night Saturday through Sunday. 

So far guidance is greatly varied as to when rain chances resume..anywhere from late Friday to early Sunday for eastern portions of South Florida to work north with time. The GFS is consistent on Sunday before sunrise for east central though, and this might need to be watched a bit closely as wind profiles do show some directional and speed shear..though suspect if anything beyond a rain shower were to occur it would remain out over the Gulf Stream.  Later in the day though east central is showing a chance for a thunderstorm (?) ...and even a strong one. If so, it would be a very odd anomaly but nonetheless it's impossible to ignore the wind profiles accompanied by the quick rebound in instability Sunday afternoon which the GFS (Global Forecast System model) is depicting.

MONDAY :  Very warm with highs in the lower to mid--80Fs (very close to Sunday's high temperatures) but it appears Monday will remain dry but for parts of North Florida.

TUESDAY  and .... : Not going to discuss this time frame just yet, though guidance is consistent with a cold front to be across Central 'sometime' Tuesday, but what affects and for how long those 'affects' will be in the area (namely rain/thunder chances) is too far out in time to bother noting for now.  

 .... BEYOND: Likewise, guidance bounces around on what is to occur by Thursday of next week (Thanksgiving) other than by then any cold front should have cleared the state, at least as it stands now. Likely will not post again concerning the weekend rain chances and beyond for another 48 hours or even 72 hours. Until then, expect the weekend over all to be very nice except the rain chances from south to north late Saturday into early Sunday, and maybe another chance late Sunday afternoon east Central. Warmest on Sunday though and again on Monday with 80Fs stoking the air waves once again. Phew!  

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Sunday, November 16, 2014

Near Record Warmth Monday - Coldest Yet on Tuesday into Wednesday (?)

 Out to Sea on a Cloudy, Cool Fall Evening

TODAY: Warm and pleasant with a few more clouds than yesterday with light wind. High near 80F at the beaches and lower to some mid-80Fs interior areas, especially South Central and South Florida regions.  Increasing moisture later today at the lower levels advecting northward ahead of a cold front that the local press has been advertising for a few days now. (Go 'Noles!)

MONDAY: Near Record High Temperatures! Highs in the mid-80Fs many areas (depending on precedent cloud coverage) , with Vero Beach looking to be the one official reporting location most likely to break the threshold of 86F whereas other areas would have to surpass 88F or 89F degrees, but who knows though suspect some clouds might prevent  records to break at other locations. 

Increasing cumulus cloud coverage as heating ensues and/or as clouds break up from the overnight (if a low stratus deck forms overnight tonight in 'the warm sector' as appears could be the case early in the day) as winds pick up from the SW late morning into the mid-afternoon hours  with the cold front  across the panhandle region.

General  GFS Surface Plot for  1pm Monday afternoon with highs in the 80Fs over Florida
  Later Monday  afternoon through mid Evening:   Probably a bit of a weak pre-frontal trough could set off some thunderstorms with gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center is out-looking for a severe potential over North Florida  and into the Big Bend where winds aloft will be strongest. The problem there will be very little low level instability. As is the case quite often, the best instability will be over Central and South Florida but the best winds will be over North Florida. And, as is often the case, the stronger winds could pull off to the east and north before  the front gets close enough to generate  "would be" strong storms further south where the best instability is located; however, there still remains a chance of stronger storms from near and north of a Bradenton to Sebastian Inlet line toward I-4, with the better overall threat along and north of I-4 ; especially along the immediate west coast and again toward the immediate East Coast from Daytona to Melbourne more specifically from 4:30pm through around 9pm. Outside of any storm threat there still looks to be a respectable chance of rain (though rainfall totals do not appear to be over 1/2 -3/4' (inches) tops and mostly much less than 1/2") ...the chance of rain Central will exist well past midnight if not for only significant cloud cover.

TUESDAY: The models continue to disagree on exactly how quickly (or slowly) it will take for the front to cross "Dead Central" as a point of reference, with the GFS much faster than the NAM by a good 6-8 hours at least (see next image). 

If the GFS is correct, the front will stretch across "The Dividing Line" (of the peninsula) around 1AM but if the NAM is correct it could be as late as 7-8AM or near the time of sunrise.

Either way, TUESDAY, appears could end up being the Coldest Overall Day we've had yet this season sum total from sunrise to sunset from a Melbourne to Bradenton line and north. Even the NAM though has been showing a strange temperature discontinuity in the afternoon with Sough Florida being actually cooler than further north in parts of Central, perhaps because of denser cloud coverage as cold air advection sets in..who knows.  Either way, it could be as much as 20F - 25F degrees colder on Tuesday than on Monday (!) 

WEDNESDAY: Regardless of what the press has been advertising in regard to the cold to come, the immediate east coast from Canaveral and South (along the A1A strip) MIGHT NOT get as cold as it was a week or so ago back at the beginning of November, though from  Orlando and points west and north it well could get down into the  mid 30Fs. That would be because the wind becomes more North to North-Northeast overnight and those locations closer to the ocean will be spared the brunt of the worst of this brief chill down this go around. That is, under the assumption that the wind does take that turn. The GFS and NAM both agree on this scenario though, and have been showing it to be the case for a solid two days and 8 model runs. An example might be that while temperatures in the NW Side of Orlando into Lake County are near 36F - 38F, the temperature at Patrick AFB as a point of reference might be much closer to the 49- 52F line.

BEYOND: Slightly warmer Wednesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs to near 70F (a bit warmer south Florida) or about 6-9 degrees warmer than Tuesday afternoon and less windy as well...but the real return to overall 'normal' will be slow to come, likely Friday and into the weekend when the next chance of showers could come by Sunday early. Mornings will again follow the trend of the season so far  in regard to the warmest air residing along and east of the A1A Strip all the way into Saturday morning at least with lows in the 60Fs by Friday morning , but much cooler inland.

The next front is scheduled as would be the norm this time of year in about 6 1/2 - 8 days which puts the next  frontal passage just before Thanksgiving. Models have varied on the exact date and that front's affects though, so will avoid going into any details given the limited time constraints of guidance accuracy. in the peak of winter the fronts  can come as often as ever 5 days (and sometimes even more frequently). 

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Saturday, November 8, 2014

Rains Possible Tonight Through Sunday (w/Some Thunder Possible)

Radar at 5PM - Area South of Yellow Line is for mostly Sunday (additional rain chances possibly all day)
NOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Area of mostly light to moderate rain is encroaching on the west coast while convergence near the east coast is setting off some convective low topped type showers late this afternoon from West Palm Beach and north to the Cape area. Though these showers might end after night fall, the main area of interest will still be on the approach.

Latest guidance shows increasing bulk shear and much higher helicity values in the 0-3KM layer near Tampa Bay and south spreading east overnight. A focus for 'elevated thunder' in the presence of cold air aloft along the old frontal boundary now running from near Mims toward South Tampa Bay could act as a catalyst for storms especially as upper level winds increase after midnight through Sunday morning (see between red lines below). Over-running wind profiles just north of this boundary could also set up a cause for some larger rainfall totals further north toward I-4, but no two models agree wholeheartedly (thus, only potential) on any of the aforementioned scenarios, with the better bet being rainfall (possibly briefly heavy at times).

SUNDAY:The ECMWF model seems to coming out the winner on the overall set up regarding rain chance duration as the latest NAM has been running along side it per other discussions being read. If so, that means rain chances could continue south of I-4 all through Sunday with a better chance of thunder South Central mainly, with some pretty strong vertical velocities showing up near and north of Lake Okeechobee in the afternoon to early evening hours. Low pressure off shore Brevard could give cause for some wrap around rain chances well into Sunday into Sunday night as well.

MONDAY: Any rain chances to remain will be almost all east of I-95 and will end by mid-morning at latest if not much sooner.

BEYOND: Cooler mornings with NNE winds, with overnight lows in the mid 50Fs in the interior and west but much closer to 67-72F along the east coast from Brevard County and south through the keys. Afternoons in the mid-upper 70Fs warming to the lower and some isolated mid 80Fs (away from the immediate coast) by Tuesday through Thursday as sky conditions will be much improved all areas by the time Monday ends.

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Friday, November 7, 2014

Continued Chance of "Stormy Weather" Late Saturday Through Midnight

"Cold Front" location at 1PM as noted by Lower Dew Point Air, Front to Continue South through Tonight

TODAY-TONIGHT: Short post since little has changed since yesterday's post. The frontal boundary that was to cross Central around sunrise was several hours behind the previous forecasts   and is only now crossing central a good 6 hours later than thought. 

This boundary will end up across the keys or just south of there in a greatly diminished fashion with a secondary boundary to remain near to  south of The Lake Region into tomorrow. Not much change in temperatures for the immediate east coast but the interior and western side of the state will be cooler tomorrow morning mostly because of the drier air mass which allows overnight lows to fall more generously in the absence of the warmth holding higher dew point air.

SATURDAY: Using a blend of the NAM (North American Model) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) models as there is a bit of surprising consistency between the two as of this morning's model runs. 

Both show a slightly sooner arrival of 'stormier potential' weather from around near sunset on the west coast near Tampa Bay southward toward perhaps the Punta Gorda area as a series of 'vorticity lobes' (upper atmospheric level energy impulses at and above 2000 - 20,000 ft)  in waves across the state.  

There are implications of a weak surface low forming over East Central Florida at the same time a more discernible weak circulation is still off the SW Coast for Florida to move toward the ENE toward Central/South Central Florida as well. 

Otherwise, upper level energy will also cross all of North Central Florida as well. Most of Saturday will be dry however, until late day, UNLESS storms can manage to spring up late day near the east or west coast which the NAM is hinting at. Any thing to spring up might be worth watching, though the upper levels winds and strong mid-level shear and colder air aloft is not set to arrive until after dark and be overhead until at least after 9 p.m.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Better chance of locally heavy but brief rainfalls with gusty winds to sub severe and possibly some near severe hail (?!) ?  Questions abound , but mid level circulations are possible, just not down to the level below about 4000 ft. Still, such conditions could give rise to storms with out much cloud to ground lightning but strong gusty winds . Most activity of strong category is being shown to exit the east coast after 1:AM Sunday morning except possibly along the east coast from near Vero to West Palm or further south until around 5:AM or so.

SUNDAY: Slow clearing if at all South and South Central Florida with a remaining chance of rains until at least noon time some locations, with the Far North parts being in the clear as far as rain goes. Strong activity though will be long gone most everywhere by late morning.

BEYOND: This weather even will not be leaving cold air behind really much at all. Warm temperatures for the south half of the state toward the lower to mid 80Fs (interiors) by Tuesday afternoon .  

We will likely be hearing words of 'The Polar Vortex" over the news lines soon since those 'words' won't be going away anytime in the future since being brought to the fore front last year ; blog posts here sometimes mentioned the James Bay Low instead.

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Thursday, November 6, 2014

Strong/Marginally "Severe" Storms Overnight Saturday toward Noon Sunday?


TODAY: Cold front approaching Florida to slide through Central Florida around sunrise Friday morning and to proceed South to the Florida Straits. This is a very shallow boundary and other than some mostly cloudy skies with the front, little active weather is anticipated, yea nary a rain-shower if even.  An upper level low meanwhile is winding up as shown below toward N. Mexico / SW TX which will open up and proceed eastward in the next 48-72 hours as an upper level trough and instigate weak cyclogenesis east of Brownsville , Tx. The front over Florida will lift back north toward Central (as it stands now) during the day on Saturday to just south of I-4 or perhaps not even as far north as a Tampa bay to Canaveral line by nightfall or even after dark. Position of that boundary will be critical in regard to rainfall, and if possible even some 'marginal' (dare we say) severe weather.

Rainfall over Florida mainly beginning afternoon along the West Coast in various places spreading eastward mostly overnight. There might be TWO shots of active weather somewhere across Central or North Central Florida, if not even south Florida. Just too far out in time to say for certain.

FRIDAY: Clearing skies from North to South early morning toward noon time but more clouds it appears will be across South Florida as the mid-level trough never clears that area. Northerly wind behind the front with highs it appears in the mid-upper 70Fs, otherwise pleasant on Friday North half of state by early afternoon if not sooner.

SATURDAY: By this day we'll have a better handle on what if anything transpires across the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance has been showing several vorticity (energy) lobes at various levels of the atmosphere over time to cross Florida from Late Afternoon and into the over night hours. Usually, guidance is not very accurate in regards to these perturbations, esp. this far out in time; hence the post is Very Preliminary; note that no official outlets are calling for any 'severe weather' as of this time.

SUNDAY: Latest Guidance has slowed the oncoming 'set up' a bit, which was previously forecast to occur and clear the area prior to sunrise Sunday, but now the GFS has a second upper disturbance which could affect parts of Central and/or South Central into the early afternoon on this day with more rainfall. Much could occur especially across the Loop Current over the Eastern Gulf so it does bear some watching.  GFS shows plenty of Bulk Shear sometimes down to the 2000 ft level and much more so aloft in the presence of divergence aloft with the jet stream. Very  cold air in the 5000-10,000ft layer by Florida standards could set off some surprises (storms) as the newer model run shows as later as later morning toward Noon time toward the east coast, but in what way is hard to say though 'hail' is always a possibility if , and only IF some true storms can get going..esp. in the presence of so much directional and speed shear. Right now it does not seem out of the question for elevated rotation in storms to manifest but again, it's still way to early to make the leap with any degree of confidence for continuity's sake.

BEYOND : Front to clear by later Sunday as it is now but updates will be necessary.  For now, expect your fav TV weathercaster to shift his or her tune several times between today and early to mid day Saturday though as models change around.

Northerly winds to NNE wind will make for very cool inland to west coast mornings, but at this rate the immediate east coast appears will again escape the worst of the cold air, with as much as a 15 degrees temperature difference from west to east across the state at sunrise hours through at least Tuesday/Wednesday mornings with afternoons in the 70Fs.  Another big front is being forecast by the weather headlines to impact the eastern 3/4 of the U.S. later next week, and much banter is being bounced around about that next system currently taking shape in the Gulf of Alaska. Time will tell just how low we can go, but Florida so far is being etched in as escaping the worst of the entire mess. Fingers crossed.

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Friday, October 31, 2014

Wind Chills Saturday Night with near Record High Minimums During the Day?


TODAY: Frontal boundary located across Central Florida pressing slowly south during the late morning to mid afternoon with much drier air and hence clearing skies in it's wake as the day wears on. 

There is sufficient low to mid level moisture though for some clouds once the sun gets working on the atmosphere, so not expecting an entirely CLEAR day but for perhaps later in the day. Temperatures to hover mainly in the mid-upper 70Fs to near 80F especially South Central/South.

Halloween Cat Scratch Fever

HALLOWEEN NIGHT: Cool and clearing with temperatures lowering from low 70Fs into the lower to mid 60Fs by around 10pm. Otherwise, very pleasant.

It is the next front that is the 'hum-dinger of Daddy Fronts' to come across Florida early Saturday that is going to have something to say though.

SATURDAY: After morning lows occur mainly in the mid 50Fs Saturday morning with lower 60Fs limited to the immediate beachside residents, the next front will glide invisibly across with increasing winds on its heals. Strong low pressure will be forming just off the coast of the Carolina s with a strong anomalous mid-level jet aloft of 110 Kts across North Florida and 10,000 foot level winds across Central Florida of 70 + kts as high pressure dives south through the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin. 

This is an extremely unusual set up any time of year  esp. this time of year. With 2000 foot level winds showing to be around the 35 kts mark, with heating of the day atop strong cold air advection, wouldn't be surprised if we might see some winds gusts near 40 -42mph on Saturday afternoon, but more likely in the 25-38mph range.  

The next factor will be to mix the temperatures in. Afternoon highs as noted the other day might not crack 60F parts of North Central Florida. 60Fs looks for Central parts of Central and south to South Florida..but where to draw the line of 60F and below has been wobbling north/south somewhere across Central. Either way, it's going to be very dry, very windy, and unusually cool for what we've been used to. Not a good day for boating by any means.

SUNDAY: Wind chills overnight?! Last NAM is coming in showing upper 30Fs to just inland of Vero Beach and across almost all of the west side of Orlando toward Ocala, whereas the GFS implies closer to low 40Fs along the 27 Corridor and mid-40Fs elsewhere. 

There could be a huge temperature gradient (difference in temperature) between the IMMEDIATE BEACH side east of A1A Sunday morning from anywhere to the west toward US1 and then I95. West of I95 is guaranteed 40Fs and near US1 looks close to upper 40Fs, with the sand shores east of A1A from the Cape South   perhaps in the lower 50Fs, with a continued breeze but decreasing just a bit and shifting to NNE.

Noting that most of the U.S. along and east of The Mississippi River will be in the 30Fs Sunday morning save parts of Florida and the eastern parts of the Carolinas likely because there will be some cloud cover and perhaps precipitation.

Sunday to 'warm' to the mid to 'maybe' upper 60Fs many areas by near noon to late morning though and thus endeth the cold spell for the beaches from the Cape and south. Overnight lows continue toward upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs as winds might decouple a bit after dark inland, but remain just strong enough to actually never fall much after dark at the beach near the A1A strip mainly.

MONDAY - BEYOND: Beaches to wake up to mid-upper 60Fs but remaining cooler well inland with highs in the mid 70Fs and from there on out the beaches will be in the 70Fs 24/7 through the end of the week. Deeper easterly winds with time could advect and dense low level cloud deck across the east coast and into the interior Tuesday through Friday with some sprinkles perhaps possible at the immediate beaches region mainly with probably no measurable totals if any falls at all. 

Cloud cover if it does manifest though as it looks like it could might actually hold afternoon high temperatures down, but then again, keep over night lows warm (hence in part, round the clocks 70Fs).

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