"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Large Rainfall Totals Possible Late Tuesday/Wednesday

At 6AM A warm front is lifting north toward South Georgia (early this afternoon).
The boundary is marked mainly by increasing dewpoints in the 70Fs and winds becoming southeast to south southeast
TODAY: Very vigorously dynamic storm system in the wind fields department affecting all of the southeast for the next few days with multiple changes and variations overall across Florida . Wind today to become more SE-SSE by mid-afternoon with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs. Over the past 30 hours, the temperature at my location has only varied by about 2 degrees over the entire time due to strong onshore winds gusting to above 25 mph across tempered ocean waters. 

Little change from the last post though overall, with a chance of a shower or two, or even a thunderstorm later today mainly across parts of East Central north from Osceola to Brevard toward Ormond Beach.   Winds also will be decreasing later today, and could be a notable decrease at least for a short times as the warm front passes by any one location. Clearing skies as well, but not totally clear per se, but much improved skies from I-4 and south mostly as the morning wears on.

MONDAY: Wind becoming more SW and warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80Fs (South). Chance of showers actually looks pretty low except parts of North and North Central. A cold front will work its way into Central by Monday night though which will make for a chance of showers and some thunder.

TUESDAY: This is where it gets very sticky. The frontal boundary might get as far south as Lake Okeechobee or not quite that far south, but a mid level area of low pressure is forecast to form along the boundary across the Central to Southwest Gulf of Mexico and lift east and east northeast overnight into Wednesday. In doing so, the surface front could retrograde back north in the presence of a 100kt + jet streak across North Florida .and much stronger than normal winds below that as well down to 4000ft above the ground (from the southwest). The latest GFS showed tremendous amount of BULK Shear across Central and North Central with instability limited to the 'north-south dividing line' and south. This COULD set the stage for severe weather across Central Florida, but so far that has not been directly enough implied; however, larger rainfall totals have been during the time between late Tuesday afternoon through as late as mid-day Wednesday. Timing will still need to be refined in those regards, if they do in fact manifest at all.

Worse, it appears the front could slide south by Wednesday morning setting up a cold front with over running situation meaning moderate rain in the presence of  mid-50F degree temperatures. Overall, Wednesday is not looking like a pleasant day, at least not the first half of the day.

THANKSGIVING: Front clears state with lows in the low through upper 40Fs and highs in the lower to mid-60Fs, but skies do look almost entirely clear for this day.

WEEKEND TO COME: So far looks very mild, with cool but not cold temps, and no rain to be seen  

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