"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 31, 2011

New Year's Day Will Be All Right - Followed By The Chilly Bite

Depiction from the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the surface layer of the atmosphere for New Year's Day morning.
A cold front will be approaching the SE states and Florida as well...Monday morning.

NOW: Florida is now being encompassed by high pressure at the surface and upward into the middle levels of the atmosphere. The air within the high pressure is also rather dry, so as it can be seen upon a glance outside, the clouds are few and far between. Additionally, the wind is nearly calm at times. Does it get any better than this! (that is not a question). The same conditions will prevail for New Year's Day, but the high pressure area will be shrinking in size and strength in prelude to the very big local weather change which is on the approach for the entire state.

NEW YEAR'S DAY:  Much like today sums it up, perhaps a few degrees warmer, with light to calm winds at time. Dewy in the morning. Epic with few clouds.

MONDAY: Based solely on the afternoon run of the GFS model which is just becoming available as I write, the model is showing that a cold front , the cold front, will be located closely in the area of Central Florida during sunrise Monday. Timing naturally as to exactly when remains a small question, but in the big picture is rather irrelevant. The point is, behind the front is when the 'big change' in temperatures will occur. I would not expect given the circumstances shown in the moisture fields, that we will have any precipitation with the front -- mostly a band of clouds in association with moisture just ahead, along, and just behind the surface front. Winds behind the front will be from the NW, with little to no temperature rise once that front goes through..even with full sunshine at noon due to cold air advection (cold air moving in). Mixing of this cold air moving in under clearing skies in the afternoon could result in a very cool and breezy mid-late afternoon with temperatures falling through the 50Fs (which is a good 20F colder than those of today and tomorrow). In short, it looks like jackets and sweaters will be needed on Monday, especially later in the day out of wind protected areas.

TUESDAY: Coldest statewide morning of the year and season, and only 2 days into it. 2012 is starting our fresh, crisp, clear, and cold. Air mass will not only be cooling, but drying. The Wind will let up on Tuesday after a cold start with lows in the mid-upper 30Fs most areas...working toward the lower to mid-40Fs along the immediate coast of the outer most barrier islands of Brevard County southward. Tuesday will be very cool to cold all day, hardly working through the mid-50Fs except toward South Central Florida and further yet south. Becoming very cool to cold again as the sun begins to set due to the dry nature of the air mass as winds decrease with the setting sun.

WEDNESDAY: Much like Tuesday with a cold start. Frost might become an agricultural issue inland areas along the NW side of Lake Okeechobee northward across the breadth of the state except along the coasts south of Titusville. This might very well be the coldest day yet, with temperatures at or just a few degrees cooler than the previous morning.

THURSDAY: Another cool morning, but the full impact of this cold air surge will begin to be released up and away, hence, a slow warming trend. By the weekend, it looks quite nice with seasonal temperatures not too far off from recent days. There is no rain being portrayed into the second week of January. Too soon to say, naturally, if that will be the case; but, given the current set up and lessons learned from previous years, it seems that at least this  pre-conceived notion would warrant some merit.

I Hope Your Past Year was Everything You Had Hoped It Would Be and More. And if not, We Can Hope that This Coming Year Will Certainly Be At Least Better if Not Much More That That. Happy 2012 

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