"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Near Stellar Weekend With Moderating Conditions Through MidWeek

Graphic Depiction of Temperatures one hour before sunrise. Ideal radiational cooling  upon North Florida under a calm wind and  clear sky set the stage for an ASTOUNDING record low temperature in Tallahassee of 23F, with numerous mid- upper 20F in locations such as Crestview, Monticello, Cross City, and Marianna. The 23F surpasses the previous record by 4F and  was very hard pressed to be matched  nationwide even at International Falls, Minnesota. It was colder there than in most locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Canada to boot,  as well as the Grand Canyon, nearly all stations in Maine, and Aspen, Colorado.  The only location for the most part that out-shined was Mount Washington at 10F with winds gusting to 75 mph , blowing snow, and a wind chill of 19 below zero!  Thanks for blowing it this way Washington. (although, temperatures around where most folks living in TLH were likely much warmer, as this record low was recorded in low/flat/grassy terrain at the airport).
TODAY/SUNDAY: No change in the forecast reasoning of Thursday's post . As expected, lows in the mid-upper 20Fs occurred across North Florida. The very cool to cold air made it as far south as Ocala (34F),Crystal River (34F), and Inverness (39F) whereas the warmest overnight lows occurred from Canaveral and South along the immediate east coast east of A1A to MIA /  US1 to Key West which was around 70F. Winds toward Ft. Lauderdale were already switching to NE and up went the temperature to water temperatures or nearly so as well as Virginia Key (near Key Biscayne) with a pair of 71Fs.

Slow warming through mid-morning inland (but the lows in the 20F will rise into the 40Fs by the time some folks are heading to church), with a quick rebound in temperatures expected interior by 11AM with all locations reaching the low to mid 70Fs as light ENE develops with daytime heating. Skies could be partly cloudy with  'dollar pancake stratocumulus' clouds in passing but little more. Exactly how rich the sky will get with these clouds could be in question. Might see some nearly mostly cloudy skies for a time toward sunset. Neither here nor there though.

TONIGHT: Temperatures near the coast should be a few degrees warmer as well as those along and east of I-95, but interior and west will likely be similar to this morning within 4 degrees of 50F either side.

Winds near calm or light with partly cloudy skies from time to time. There could be some shallow fog by Sunday morning as moisture levels slowly increase from the current level PWAT air of only 0.4 to 0.7 inches under an evening inversion which will quickly disperse with the rising sun contingent upon cloud coverage.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: High pressure responsible for the cold morning which is now centered over South Central Georgia will progress ENE well out in to the Atlantic through the mid-levels. Winds start to become ESE to eventually SE by later Tuesday with the ridge axis across Central Florida and eventually South Central, whereas south Florida remains mostly easterly. Daytime highs near the coast in the mid-upper 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover during peak heating (between 11:30AM - 1:30PM). Possibly another morning of fog ' slim chances' Monday but not on Tuesday.

***Side Note: Ocean temperatures are now running in the mid 60Fs north of the Cape and in the lower 70Fs south of the Cape toward Miami, so onshore winds won't be quite the ticket for truly 'warm' afternoons much longer but will buy us warmer overnight lows than inland counterparts.  Eventually, and might as well say it now, these water temperatures will become a big player in afternoon highs along the east coast north of MLB before year's end and the first few months of 2012.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: By Wednesday the first of two frontal boundaries being transported by 140kt jet stream winds heading across the NE Ohio Valley will already be over the Panhandle. Much warmer on Tuesday most places, but Wednesday seems to be  primarily the best day for temperatures most locations to record something in the lower-mid 80Fs, but again, near parallel winds to the coast could hold A1A readings from MIA to the Cape teasing closer to 80F. 

Winds more SW toward I-4 should allow the readings to get into the lower-mid 80Fs as well. After a slight chance of showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly North Florida on Tuesday, precipitable water values will have more than tripled from today reaching almost 1.75".  The first boundary could make it toward I-4 on Wednesday with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two between I-4 and south to north of Lake Okeechobee, or rather, along and south of  wherever the boundary eventually ends up.  

The second boundary mostly notable by a mid -level trough screaming by well to the north along those strong jet stream winds will progress the initial surface front south toward South Central/South Florida on Thursday, with another chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms right along the CDL (Central/Magic Diving Line) across the state, with some showers and maybe thunder South Florida. Already though, by now the front is washing out and becoming absorbed in the humongous but 'ovately flat' area of high pressure which will be re-enforced by passage of the front, extending half way to Europe across the Central Atlantic ENE of Florida.

Deep easterly fetch of over 1000 miles, but not very strong results in remaining elevated atmospheric moisture content (at least 1.3") for quite some time to come. This means overnight lows in the mid-upper 60Fs and probably highs in the mid 70Fs contingent upon cloud cover, which could be quite ample at times.

Showers will be possible or more likely sprinkles Thursday through Sunday morning. The next front will be approaching in the generic "7 Day" Time Frame, or perhaps a day or two sooner. Whenever that might be..the easterly flow will be disrupted and end the shower chance, but clouds could continue with more "Room Temperature" days and "Ceiling Fan nights".

**For kicks, watching the Tropics .... Temperatures in the Caribbean are running in the 80Fs round the clock. Last nights GFS showed a Cat 2 Hurricane coming out of the Gulf from where Rina formed last month..taking a solid tropical storm toward the Big Bend by the 27Th. The following run completely dismisses such fugue state of affairs, but it is worth looking for. Plenty of time and Thanksgiving as well before this early Christmas Gift can be delivered. Chances are more probable this figment will be nothing more than a lump of coal as opposed to a shiny Corvette named Tammy.  Central and North Florida experienced a Hurricane/Tropical storm around this same time frame (November 23rd) in 19988 named Keith.

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