"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, August 8, 2011

Not As Warm Today, Most Lightning Far East Side and South

Image shows those areas requiring the most recovery from yesterday/overnight in white.
North Florida is more of on a normal diurnal cycle though. Early on, showers and some thunder along the west coast are running into a capped environment in the mid-levels and decaying. This should change by late morning toward noon time as was the case yesterday. Please read colored text for details and gratuities.
TODAY: As expected, today appears will be just a variation of yesterday, but very well might end up similar when all is said and done.  Like yesterday, SE Florida is the most stabilized..but has significantly less (to zero) early day cloud cover as opposed to yesterday. North Central is already the most unstable and least capped, so is ready to go shortly within hours after sunrise.  Other areas will more readily fill in with cumulus clouds since there are NO DRY opposed to yesterday. Dry in the sense that everyone already has a PWAT (precipitable water values) over 2"..and in some cases like off the SW coast up to 2.4" !. Watch that area in days ahead...I'll refer to it later in the tropics section.

Overall, today is not looking all so much different from yesterday with these three exceptions: 
1) More moisture state wide from the onset - much less cloud cover South Florida;

2) More moisture, less high clouds, less capping Central, should mean not as hot today except perhaps SE and NE Florida where rains might be most delayed because of early cumulus cloud development.... even cumulus clouds will offset the high temperatures not expecting any recording breaking highs along A1A..although any area to not receive them will reach their high temp likely between 12 - 2pm. Melbourne tied their record high yesterday of 97F, and my porch was reading 98F which was probably a record for Cape Canaveral...but who knows.;

3) Sea breeze is possible from Ft. Pierce and South..hugging the coast and maybe of only short duration. Any sea breeze to form for Martin through all of Palm Beach County could enhance storm activity when combined with the Lake Shadow...especially near Ft. Pierce and West Palm Beach.

I will say though, just to write out what "Thee Models" read. There is a consensus that the most accumulated rain today will occur over far East Central Florida...with very little over SE Florida..and almost none near Miami (with the exception of the immediate east and southwest coasts from Lauderdale and north.  The other area that has been highlighted for higher rainfall totals is the barrier islands of Brevard County with some spottier areas from near Ormond Beach to JAX. In other words...not a whole lot different from yesterday.  The GFS for two runs (and the NAM last night)..has highlighted the Barrier islands for some reason.  But do note, higher rainfall totals (and not significantly so anyway), does not necessarily equate to the strongest storms. Theat could be from stronger storms offshore (like yesterday) leaving rain trails along the coast in backflow.   Guidance is showing though that mid-level temperatures are to be coolest from near North Brevard and South Today...thus, I drew in the stronger (most lightning type storms) along the east coast in that location.

Another note, no model picked up on all of the rain and thunder do the degree it is occurring over SW Florida...again that area in days to come.

Here's is a possibility for today. Note the orange areas for chaotic storm directional growth and propagation, especially if a weak east coast sea breeze can form. I noticed yesterday that storms over Southeast Florida were behaving as if there was a sea breeze, so I do believe that the configuration of the peninsula (alignment of the SE Coast) in a more prevalent WSW-ENE flow (but weak) might have something to do with it.  Although, a weak 700mb trough associated with Emily (later analyzed after the fact) might have had something to do with the bizarre storm motions over Palm Beach and Broward Counties. That trough has moved offshore, which is probably also why this area is currently so stabilized..on the back side of the trough.  For today, I'm pretending that will have little affect though by early-mid afternoon.
Since this area might not really light up until after 3-4pm...these storms could be strong...mainly due to lightning
as could other activity anywhere along mainly A1A to Playalinda Beach in Brevard. ALSO NOTE: I did not put SW Florida in the afternoon activity...hmmm...still needs to be watched for further development of potential tropical nature.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: More of the same with a twist each day. It does appear though that a good mid-upper level trough will be crossing the state (other than far South Florida) on Wednesday. This could create a much more widespread rain chance..I'm thinking our forecasts might be reading 60 -70% chance of rain almost anywhere on Wednesday by the time we get there.

THURSDAY: Significantly drier North Half of the well as HOT...near record highs possible in the wake of the 700mb trough...the cold front will have gone through..huh? It is a surface front, but in this case the high pressure behind it will not come from the Arctic or Canada, the high pressure will have some of its origins, courtesy of that of Texas Drought Fame. Rain chances go to near Zero along and north of I-4.  Dead Central could still hold on to a rain chance along and south of SR 50 over to North Tampa Bay.
I am watching for the possibility of STRONG STORMS somewhere from Central Osceola County in a triangle toward Miami on the east side (south of Indian River County). Some of the dry air could get entrained in the mid-levels enhancing the lightning and wind gust potential. And with a NW steering flow..storms combined with an odd ball Lake Shadow could really enhance storms over South Palm Beach County toward Miami. In short, Thursday looks like a very bizarre and completely NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL DAY.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Given the circumstances...Friday and Saturday will not be so strange..other than we might need to watch that area off the SW Coast of Florida. The GFS keeps hinting at something bizarre as well happening over this time frame. Before it was a low near Tampa..but now it is latching on to that area off the SW Florida coast that is already active with showers (analysis does show a weak cyclonic circulation already)...That area has really flared up with thunderstorms as of sunrise and needs to be monitored. Storms over South Florida and west central working up toward Lake County/Ocala by Saturday.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: A return to a more normal summer like pattern as the Atlantic Ridge axis builds into South Central Florida with all of the state having recovered from the heat as temperatures will have fallen to normal.  Sea breeze convergence storms favoring the east side late but probably remaining west of US1 or I-95 north of Ft. Pierce.

TROPICS: As noted yesterday, there is a Sorry Old Lad (SAL) out there...combined with the Boy King TUTT, the non-dynamic duo whose threats are all but hot air...although they do a good number on tropical systems. But guess what? Our next tropical system might not come from the Atlantic at all! It would come from SW Florida where all that activity is today.  The 700mb trough axis expected to cross most of the state on Wednesday is thought to wash out over far South Florida and merge with this area...Also..for South Florida concerns, the TUTT/SAL team are not expected to impinge on SE Florida and the Keys...but rather remain to the east..fill..then erode and pass south of the straits.

Can't say it always works that way,,,but given the current state of affairs over southwest Florida this morning it sure does look convincing.  That low is forecast to become a depression or minimal storm and track toward the Central Texas Coast much like Bret next week. It also runs into the high pressure drought ridge much like Brett and washes out just off shore. Guidance is showing a big precip bulls-eye near Houston, but I have my doubts...that is shown because the system is forecast to meet up with a 700mb trough..for that reason only. Will that trough be there one week from now?...Heck..that's a long time from now to know such details.

This image shows the Atlantic. I am watching that most eastern wave. The SAL has decreased a bit over the far Western Atlantic..and I'm not seeing the big dry feed continuing at the end of the animation. The most western Sorry Old Lad north of the Dominican Republic is moving little and seems to be rotating over on itself. The TUTT low is forecast to remain in place and slowly cut off there without affecting (drying out) the Keys or extreme South Florida. There also appears to be some circulation in that most eastern wave..and note how the dry air feed ends with that last wave as well...shown by the dashed green line.

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