"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

"Cold Front" Sliding Slowly Through Florida Today - Not a Big Change Maker

9AM Position of cold front with moderate rain showers and some thunder over the Gulf of Mexico
The front to slide into Central Florida mid-late afternoon through midnight (South Central by then).
SMALL chance of elevated thunder as show in the image, but minimal. If so, even a heavier rain shower if possible could manifest a wind gust or so in the 40mph range, but again, chances are low but not completely unattainable for thunderstorms. 
Here is how the same area appears on satellite imagery. Note how long the front will take to get into Dead Central today. In other instances of cold frontal passage, the distance to be traversed  with strong fronts could take a matter of a few hours rather than 12 hours at least as will be the case today.

And Finally........

Wind fields MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure/The Surface/Ground Level). SW-WSW wind today and warm most areas except North Florida before cloud cover moves in. No problems for peak heating all of Central and South..but far North Central might get the clouds in before peak heating  north of I-4. Note the  projected cold front positions, and how it barely skits by far South Florida before pulling off more toward the east rather than south. Rain showers or a sprinkle possible between the green lines.

TODAY: It is Wednesday, January 18. Cold front moving South and East today through Florida with warmer temperatures most areas except the barrier islands of Brevard downwind of the cooler waters of the Two Big Rivers but even there it will be warmer today (just not 'as warm' as inland); highs even still will be in the mid-upper 70Fs and maybe some lower 80Fs South Florida toward the East Side of the state. The front is accompanied by cloud cover expected to reach I-4 and south during early-mid afternoon in varying degrees, reaching Dead Central toward late afternoon.

If there is to be any thunder heard today suspect it will be up until 9pm toward East Central, but lightning even then SHOULD be either cloud to cloud or in-cloud (and not hitting the ground). There is a sliver of opportunity in there for cloud to ground strikes along and just north/south of I-4 as far south as an area near Sanford/Mims until 7pm. Any showers or even a thunder producing 'storm' especially could result in wind gusts around 40mph. ..

HOWEVER, this discussion is based on 2AM EST forecast model runs, thus early morning information has not been assimilated yet into the model depicted outlooks which will be spewing out of the computers shortly after noon time. Thus, refinement if necessary, of this post could be necessary by early afternoon. Anticipating that if anything, conditions will not be even as 'bad' as written in this post. Better case scenario will be very little rain anywhere south of I-4 except toward the East Side of the State. Rain is not expected as far as this blog post is concerned south of a line running from Palm Bay to Sarasota, and most of the official NWS offices seem to be in agreement on that from what I briefly read this morning.  

I did look at the morning Storm Prediction Center (SPC) which is located in Norman, Oklahoma, Outlook for thunderstorms today..and this is their line of thinking for POSSIBLE thunder, not definite thunder.

The "Storm Prediction Center" (SPC) Thunderstorm Outlook for today issued around 8AM EST this morning. Note that no Severe Storms are anticipated per the other colors indicating "Risk" of Severe Levels Ranging from Slight to High Risk of Severe

BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY: Cooler temperatures for a day or so after the front the north half of the state, or another way of looking at that same area in green above where thunder is possible today. The warmest morning lows will run down the Barriers of Brevard toward Palm Beach County and across toward Sarasota and South as winds will quickly swing around to NE-ENE-E during the day on Thursday and then become more SE on Friday. Mornign lows in the mid-upper 40Fs interior Central and North, but along the Barriers and South in the mid-upper 50Fs ..much like those of yesterday and today.

WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY: Warm! Overnight lows along the east coast from the Cape and South possibly in the mid-upper 60Fs by Sunday morning if not 70F and daytime highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near the beach and into the low 80Fs by Sunday inland. No real chance of rain is in the extended, nor is any cold air through the remainder of January anticipated. As noted before, that last cold spell could have been our last of longer than 1 or 2 day duration for the winter. Still have the first 1/2 of February to go though. Severe weather chances will need to be looked out for as well as we approach Florida's severe weather month (officially) of March, although, with the La Nina Pattern in full-hold, even that might be dealt with in ease.   

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