"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Other Than Some Clouds at Times, Pleasantly Benign

Images: (1) First image: 9AM Thursday morning visible satellite image with the weak surface features sketched in. We see a very weak bubble low east of the Space Center with a weak coastal trough off shore annotated with the dashed yellow line (get used to those the next 10 days from time to time). This low has been meandering around the Cape since yesterday, and re-emerged (along with the coastal trough) after dark last night as expected would occur. Also shown is where fog still remained on the hour at 9AM, it was previously more extensive (within the yellow area). The lime green shows where some rain showers had been occurring at the time. The fuchsia lines show where the most extensive lower cloudiness resides. Note the clouds over NE Brevard county within the bounds of the surface low where winds are near calm (2) Second image shows the RUC forecast for roughly the same time. We again see the low analyzed by that model along the coastal trough, and the ridge axis running down through North Central/North Florida at the surface under which the most fog resides. The very weak surface low reflection (motion) along the coastal trough, shown by the black arrow, is in the of process of relocating further north toward off the coast of St. Augustine late morning as it starts to become absorbed in the much more prevalent high pressure over the eastern Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean which is dropping southeastward.

TODAY: SKIES - Some more showers over SE Florida today will wash out by late morning with partly cloudy/sunny skies to remain as temperatures reach the upper 70s...perhaps an 80F here or there. The only bug-a-boo today over Central Florida will be the extent of the clouds over N. Central Florida (along and north of the Beach line toward Orlando). Satellite animations and personal observation since waking up this morning has shown that they are going no where just yet. Based on some model guidance trends, satellite/radar animations, and some half-witted experience, believe that some of the areas in the fog right now might transition to partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy this afternoon...breaking up going into late morning but then reforming again as clouds with heating of the day. But from Cape Canaveral to Orlando it is very sketchy. Believe this area over East Central Florida will end up being partly cloudy with mostly cloudy conditions from time to time throughout the day...50/50 both modes but hedging more toward 70/30 for extreme NE Brevard County (70 being mostly cloudy). Further south will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Winds will remain light today, but believe a light sea breeze will form by mid-afternoon and push inland which could aid in clearing out clouds along the coast near the Cape. This boundary might act as a very weak lifting mechanism to form a line of low topped cumulus clouds down the spine of the state north of Lake Okeechobee later today that will slowly migrate toward the west coast then die as the sun sets before reaching the other coast (west).

SHOWERS?:Also, not so sure there won't be some trace rain amounts west of I-95 as the weak seabreeze pushes from Brevard County and north toward the inland locales where low level moisture is pooled and large areas of clearing skies currently exist. Should this transformation occur, the chances of even a spit will end after 5pm. Again, west of I-95 from near Orlando and North. Showers over South Florida should end before noon if they haven't already. Even so, most people won't even know a drop has fallen unless they are in the car and see the drops appear on the windshield.

TEMPERATURES: No big changes from those of yesterday. Mid-upper 70s inland after warming from the mid 50s this morning. A1A will be right around 68-72F from Cocoa Beach and north (most assuredly if the clouds remain. )...a degree or two warmer further south and into the mid-upper 70s from West Palm south.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: More chances of fog in the mornings inland as high pressure ridge settles right across Central Florida in a very moist low level environment (dry aloft). No rain and temperatures running status quo to that of today. Coastal lows SE Florida around 72F, cooling to low 60s as one gets north of West Palm to Daytona Beach (A1A). Further inland morning lows in the mid 50s, afternoon highs in upper 70s. Coastal highs from Port Canaveral and north will be near equal to the coastal lows they will have from West Palm Beach and south (near to just above 70F).

SUNDAY: As mentioned two days ago, and is still be indicated, another backdoor wind shift boundary works down the Atlantic Seaboard from the Georgia Coast. Looks like this one's influence will remain offshore in regard to any rain chances, but could see an increase in coastal clouds Sunday sometime and a shift in the wind direction to NE. Either way, winds remain around 12mph or less throughout the time frame. This boundary does not affect SE Florida.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Continued dry, but could see coastal high temperatures from JAX to Sebastian reach the upper 70s to near 80F along with the rest of the state, namely because this region on the east side could lose the cooling sea breeze. All other areas remain status quo, but could reach low 80s on the east half of the state just about anywhere north of Sebastian Inlet. Not so sure they won't hold on to an afternoon seabreeze further south, keeping SE Florida in the upper 70s.

WEDNESDAY: Frontal boundary moves in, and we look at a small chance of showers and increased cloudiness. In my mind, it's a bit up for grabs as to whether this front will quantify as a backdoor front or just a very weak 'regular' one. Either way, little impacts other than a shift in wind direction to NE right after passage of the boundary and the items noted in the previous sentence regarding clouds/showers.

BEYOND: Potential for a little bit more of a dynamic pattern to begin to emerge heading into late February/Early March. Even so, with the hints of what 'was' a very dynamic storm system to affect Florida in yesterday afternoon's GFS run (no longer shows this morning), the temperatures never fall much in the post-storm layout. In other words, no freezes or even frost the rest of the calendar winter for South or South Central Florida. So far. SE Florida can totally right it off though more than likely.

On this day in 1992 - 0920AM - Gulf County, Apalachicola - A small tornado lifted a car with three occupants up and slammed it down on the road several times. It blew the hatchback door up on the roof of the car. The tornado also uprooted trees and damaged two houses.

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