"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Strong Storms Possible Today Mainly North Down through East Central

Sunrise Tuesday, June 27 2017 Off the Florida East Coast
TODAY: Frontal boundary this morning remains near I-10 and most guidance implies that it will wash out today somewhere between there and the I-4 Corridor from Daytona west toward North Tampa Bay area later in the day if it can make it that far.

Morning soundings show slightly cooler air aloft across the boards both at 500mb and 700mb though the coolest from near Ormond Beach to Jax on the east coast. Steering hasn't changed much though there is about a 10mph nudge on average toward the east coast for Brevard and Indian River Counties , and a bit more of one further north. Thinking is a possible severe category storm could occur in that area around the St John's River Valley as was the case yesterday though haven't included in the graphic for 'severe' as if so, would be far too isolated to be 'forecast-able' without any real synoptic scale features of dominance at play  .

Other stronger storms along the east coast sea breeze front might occur however as far south as Indian River County closer to or just west of I-95  (and maybe even yet further south due to more of the mesoscale boundary interactions than for other reasons further north, namely better instability at the lower levels where cloud cover is not as prevalent. This activity might be able to work toward the east coast but might not retain the 'strong' caliber in the process of doing so.

Rains could dwindle Eastern Parts of North Central or Central to after dark, and even some thunder could occur then as well.

Activity might get an earlier start too near the immediate coast as the sea breeze kicks in anywhere from West Palm Beach and north, with favored areas being near Lake Okeechobee (St Lucie, Martin Counties) and the north side of the Cape (Brevard).

WEDNESDAY: High pressure  moving across the Carolinas, though not exceptionally strong will begin to take the steering aloft further south to almost nothing but with a tendency, especially later in the day for storms to drift more toward the west rather than the east.   Remnant boundary moisture could pool however across Central so even locations 'near the coast' might get a shot at some showers or thunder as the sea breeze along the east coast develops with any stronger activity waiting until later in the day further inland.

THROUGH FRIDAY: Mostly interior thunder and over toward Route 27 - I-75 appears to be where the better chance of storms will occur. Showers still possible earlier in the day some east coast locations but too early to peg down where at this stage.

FOURTH WEEKEND To THE FOURTH: Not much change in thinking . Will likely be some isolated bursts of lightning around on the fourth , mainly inland  while the east coast beaches for the most part remain rain free (?). Overall, looks very like typical July pattern coming up this weekend into early next week with the ridge axis oscillating to be located somewhere between Central to North Florida favoring the I-4 corridor and most of Southwest Florida...then also up across much of North Florida.

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Monday, June 26, 2017

Greater Rainfall Coverage - Isolated Rainfall Amounts over 2" Possible

On this date, June 26, 2014. Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: We'll, give'r yet another try to see what can be brewed up today across the state. Morning soundings came in similar to yesterday morning's temperature wise aloft, but with a bit more moisture above 700mb. Last evenings soundings showed that the 700mb level had warmed up to 10C from a cooler morning reading and in part resulted in less activity (and of less strength), but will surmise that the same will not occur today due to consistency across model guidance shown between models and within model runs that more coverage is to be expected. Will it ring true ?

Per surface analysis combined with mesoscale features appears ye olde frontal boundary is close to the I-10 up along the Panhandle whereas a secondary zone of 'contention', almost like a broad pre-frontal boundary or deformation zones lies roughly along a line, on the south end, running east to west from near Titusville west to Brooksville, with the northern side running from near Ormond Beach toward Cedar Key on the west coast. Within that zone is where the greatest coverage is expected at least for starters but wouldn't bet that's where the activity will be toward early evening as suspect that area will be the first to blow up north. 

Further north yet still colder air aloft combined with convergence along the boundary  itself might yield a stronger storm or two which could even move off shore at such locales as JAX , Ponte Vedra, St. Augustine,  and south toward Palm Coast.

Further south sea breeze converge combined with greatest moisture running along to just north of the I-4 is the next bone on contention to pick .  Some activity could move off shore here as well for at least Central Volusia and north if things were to work out just so. Other activity even over Pinellas County however, might be able to get an early start just prior to or as the west coast sea breeze manifests.  In this area and perhaps a bit further south, due to slow storm motions we could see an isolated report or two of over 2.00" of rain before all is said and done.

Dead Central might see some isolated showers pop up mainly along the northside of the Cape earlier in the day but suspect the real show for Central will primarily not begin until after 4:30-5pm and could last up through 10pm or so. Most activity will eke toward US1 but might not be able to  bridge the gap across the rivers due to extremely slow steering in competition with the sea breeze.

As we journey further south toward Vero on down expect sea breezes will have worked will inland before any activity can really get going with any true punctuated vigor, more like a comma to the day,  other than a few showers and maybe some thunder near Lake Okeechobee as the sea breeze sets up. Though this graphic shows thunder well south, most of it will be isolated (within those areas, except for Central/Northern parts of the state where the concentration might be a bit greater later today) Okeechobee County comes to mind.

TUESDAY: Though this day has looked for a while like a 'good coverage' day for the most part, not sure how well cloud coverage from today's activity will have cleared and as a result we'll just have to wait until then. Other than that fact though, better rain chances continue south of I-4, with even a better chance of east coastal rains well down the remainder of the state while the far north begins to dry out a bit.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Storms will mainly favor the spine of the state to the west a bit, though showers could occur further east, even at the coast  earlier in the day but be isolated at best.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY - FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: Looks like a typical summer set up so far, with perhaps a bit above normal in the rain chance category. GFS model keeps going back and forth on which side of the state (if any) might be more favored for late day thunderstorms on the Fourth. The last GFS run was   favoring the east side of the state just a bit, whereas the previous run showed no chance of storms for the east coast for nearly a good 2 weeks. Just too far out in time to make that determination.

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Sunday, June 25, 2017

Slightly More Shower/Storm Coverage Today - Stronger Storms Possible North on Monday

TODAY: Slight 'improvement' in the rain chance category over the Interior today, mainly for North and North Central to parts of Central.

Morning soundings at MIA/Tampa/and KSC all came in with a shallower dry layer air in the mid levels at and above 700mb , though there is still an inversion it is not as strong. Temperatures aloft at the standard 700mb/500mb levels have cooled 2C to 2.5C as well with 700mb no longer reading the difficult to penetrate 11C but rather around 8.5C at the Cape. This should allow showers to form more readily except where a thin veil of higher clouds is currently located over parts of North Central (and as seen below).

Last evening a storm or two lasted well into the evening where remaining boundaries interacted across regions that retained some instability during the day and suspect the same will hold true this evening as  at this time of year small patterns of 2-3 days tend to repeat themselves in the absence of any large (synoptic scale ) invasions or changes.   Image shown above is but a general representation of where the better chance of thunder might occur, but not necessarily exclusively so.

 MONDAY: Aforementioned frontal boundary mentioned in previous post now near the Florida/Georgia border will be undergoing frontalysis as it is forced toward Central Florida on Tuesday. In the interim, another day of storms , some possibly 'strong' mainly near to north of I-4 is in the cards as colder air aloft starts to over take that region. For now it looks like 'possibly stronger than usual' storms will be along the east half of the spine of the state or close to the St Johns River Valley basin west of JAX southward toward Interior Volusia and Seminole to Orange Counties. More activity possible elsewhere down to Lake Okeechobee.

TUESDAY: Again frontal boundary as of the last GFS model to make it to about Titusville or Canaveral toward Sarasota before losing all identity later in the day. Stronger storms possible most anywhere on this day across the same regions as the day before but with an even closer favoring toward the East Coast with some making it off the coast mainly from near South Daytona northward. Increasing cloud cover as well most areas by later in the day, though more than likely the morning will start off with more clouds as well from remnant debris  clouds lingering from the day before yet to have been completely dissipated.

WEDNESDAY: Easterly flow starts to take hold through the remainder of the week favoring the west side of the state for afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Friday, with a remote chance of an early to mid morning shower at the beaches in isolated fashion mainly from the Cape south before noon time.

WEEKEND: Appears we could enter a phase, especially by Sunday that will continue to favor the west side but will also manifest storm coverage over much of the interior as flow could become less easterly and more southerly in nature. All but the areas east of I95 could see storms though the further south one goes the more to the west the storms will be as the Atlantic ridge axis meanders between Dead  Central northward up to the Florida/GA border at this time; quite typical of a summer like pattern.

FOURTH OF JULY: Looks like a typical summer time pattern will be fully in place with showers/thunder possible driven mainly be sea/lake breezes (at least for now), and remaining over the interior with perhaps a leaning that would favor more toward the east side of the state later in the day into early evening (though it's too early to say for certain as guidance this far out is extremely inconsistent )

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Saturday, June 24, 2017

Showers/Storms Possible Mainly Well Inland Central/North Central (with a caveat)

June 23, 2014 Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Slowly approaching a more summer-like pattern in the 'storm arena' today. Surface ridge axis is pulling a bit off to the east of Central Florida and dropping a bit south as well during the course of the day.  This was immediately notable over night as wind at the surface picked up from the south (rather than from the east as it has been the past few days).

 Conditions unfavorable for showers/storms most areas to start the day but this will quickly change going into early afternoon  from west to east as moisture at the necessary level creeps back into frame .  Better chances or earlier day convective showers appears to be running along a line about 50 miles north of I-4 earlier today and south toward Sarasota. 

In fact if the latest RAP analysis has any credence, there is a very poor chance of anything but low topped showers anywhere over the entire peninsula south of a line running from near Brooksville northeast toward St Augustine as or 9AM.

Steering is from the SW but extremely weak and net affect of it will be almost nil. Thus, apparent storm 'motions' today will be inland along sea breeze/outflow/and lake boundaries.

Earlier activity 'anticipated' further north as noted could set up a secondary boundary a bit further south toward I-4 by late day.  Temperatures aloft remain warm today per models but the early morning KSC sounding says otherwise at around -8.5C for 500mb at least; on the other hand the 700mb temperature came in a nearly impenetrable +11C for updrafts. Further investigation of the Miami and Tampa soundings shows that they too are showing a very warm 11C and very dry above that level. All in all, that would spell out mostly 'showers' at best (or worst, depending on how one looks at it) for the entire day unless something can change 'rather drastically'.

All in all, will give the benefit of the doubt during this time of transition and stick with the chance for some thunder very late today toward early evening when sea breezes and random boundaries work their magic.

SUNDAY: Earlier guidance wasn't showing much of a difference for today though the situation is different. The Atlantic Ridge axis by now having pulled away from the state is replaced by one stretching across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and breaching across North Central Florida.  Have seen this before in past summers, and when it does occur the storm coverage is meager at best. But will the same hold true this time?  

The over all affect is for similar conditions with little to no steering aloft is what model guidance implies. As usual in summer, things will likely change in the guidance by tomorrow as even the latest GFS of the 2AM run shows more coverage and closer to the east coast (mainly Central and North Central/North) southwest toward Naples than it has in previous runs.

MONDAY: Frontal boundary will be near I10 later in the day to work southward as advertised in previous post. The big change from that post is that the boundary is no longer forecast to get hung up near the FL/GA border but rather make it's way into Central Florida.

Noting, this 'boundary' is more of the leading edge of high pressure building east and south from the Deep South region rather than a bona-fide 'front' by the time it gets to Central Florida.

In any case, increasing moisture pooled within the remnant boundary as it undergoes frontalysis should lead to good coverage of showers and storms on Monday mainly in from the immediate coast except north of the Cape where some activity might be able to work or even propagate offshore the east coast. More cloud cover this day as well, especially by later in the day many areas.

TUESDAY: This day is 'up for grabs in the region of Central Florida and north depending on how fast the high pressure area builds east and south and just how expansivee it will be. The GFS is oscillating from run to run in either have the leading edge or 'the front' make it through Central well before noon time, whereas other runs old off until around sunset. This will be an integral factor on where it will thunder/rain on Tuesday. 

If it holds off a bit there is a  good chance of thunder Central Florida, even at the coast from Sebastian and north, but if it presses south faster than expected (which is possible) chances are greatly diminished. Temperatures aloft his day should be cooler as well, or at least are thought will be, which could yield some stronger storms. For now will go with strong storms Southwest Florida (Tampa and south).

BEYOND: Regardless of what occurs with the 'boundary' , traces of it are consistently show to lay across North Central Florida or Central more or less for another day or two. The overall scheme will be 'easterly flow' as the high pressure builds across to the north of the state in which means all thunder will be limited to the west side of the state for the remainder of the week. 

On the other hand, with ample moisture in place we could see showers even at the coast at almost anytime but most likely manifesting either over night or during the mid-morning to noon time hours before working inland along the east coast sea breeze.

How long this easterly flow pattern will remain is uncertain. Hints that it will last until around Saturday are showing up when another mid-upper level trough and associated frontal boundary works across the mid-Atlantic states which would in turn  shift the steering  from east to west to more of one being from south to north and eventually favor the east side of the state more so come the Sunday , Monday or as late as Tuesday time frame.

TROPICS: No tropical threats foreseen and likely will remain of little concern at least until around the last week of July. Investigation of historical records shows there have been a very low number of named tropical system in 'recorded history' to hit Florida prior to July 24 (in July); any that did were weak.

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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Mainly Dry Today - "Summer Classics Begin Next Week"

Sunrise at Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Potential to be named Tropical System in Gulf centered at the surface is to the west and south of the large canopy of clouds as forecast models at time are in agreement for the low to eventually make a landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border in the next 48 hours. This of course might change, but will go with what we got. Regardless, closer to home as suspected might end up being the case if the system got more wrapped up, much of Florida would 'dry out' (that is, in the mid to upper levels).  

There is a moisture gradient from West to East Florida with the east half of the state drying out a bit which will continue for the rest of the day. Temperatures aloft are a bit warmer, especially at 700mb right in the middle of a dry layer so see no need to even mention rain outside of quick low topped shower almost anywhere due to lack of moisture and poor lapse rates.

 Lack of sea breeze convergence along the west coast might preclude the thunder chances there too (despite what the Tampa Forecast Discussion reads, will omit). The better chances for thunder is up along I-10, from around Gainesville out up through Tally to Pensa.

TOMORROW: Better chances of showers and/or thunder from mainly Central Polk or Osceola County and northward. Guidance hasn't come to terms with where the better chances of the rain might fall , for the NAM has it more toward the western side of the state but the GFS points to Central with a workings toward the east coast.

 Regardless, will take it while we can and go in favor of the GFS for showers/thunder possible from Polk/Osceola/Parts of Brevard/Volusia and north ( but mainly interior) because...

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: .... these days look much more on the drier side. Note that there couldn't be a shower, even thunder over the interior, but it's just not looking to ripe for the pickins so won't bother elaborating for now, besides that some things will change along the way in regard to moisture availability but for now it's looking a bit grim to go for much beyond  'isolated chance'.

MONDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK: Finally, say it is so, because for the first time since June began it looks like we will have a prolonged period of 'summer type' weather at last. 

Temperature wise that hasn't been too much an issue, it's been the overall synoptic (large scale pattern/patterns) we've been under the influence of that has been far from playing to the tune of  " sea-breeze convergence over the interior" exclusively type feel that one looks for during the summer across the peninsula.  

At this point, appears a frontal boundary will press south toward the Florida/GA Border come around Wednesday and wash out somewhere near there in the days to follow. Ample moisture , boundary collisions and weak steering toward the east coast and some days and more toward the west coast on other days.  The surface to mid level ridge axis appears will waver  between Lake Okeechobee (the 'Big Lake) region to as far north as South Georgia. 

 If it is to the north of Central Florida..flow favors the west coast for late day storms. 

If the ridge is from just north of the lake and South, flow favors the east coast. 

And if it is give or take within 50 miles of Central direct..neither coast is much favored but for the interior. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it all ...plays out.

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Saturday, June 17, 2017

Stronger Storms Possible Interior Central/North Central Later Today

"Strong' Thunderstorm Approaching Parts of North Brevard Late Friday Afternoon

TODAY: Not much change in thinking from  yesterday's post in regard to a bit less moisture and ridge axis gradually lifting north from South Florida as the day progresses. These two combined will alter the overall coverage and location of said coverage later in the day as a result of where the sea breeze collision is most likely to occur. (side note: Some 'stronger' storm reports did filter in yesterday , namely in regard to wind gusts  in the 38-52 mph range over parts of Brevard and Southern Volusia County).

For today, ridge axis across Far South Central will lift north after noon time as sea breezes begin to develop. There is a chance of showers and even thunder to occur interior area of St Lucie and/or Martin Counties as the merger of sea-breeze/Lake Okeechobee Breeze occurs. This activity, if it does develop, could further aid to spread outflow boundaries further inland and north toward Central Florida.

Meanwhile, activity around the Big Bed and across I-10 which may develop and spread east (remnants of 'energy' from the Southern Plains region) could also help to spread boundaries south and eastward.

Grungy Shelf Hinting at Cool Outflow Beginning to Take Over by Lower Clouds as Storm Presses East

Overall atmospheric moisture content I will surmise has decreased a bit though early morning soundings are not yet available. Regardless, will base the discussion  on continuity that even if they come in 'moist' (like yesterday) it will decrease a bit during the day. Regardless, whatever moisture there is will be at the proper levels of the atmosphere (lower and mid -levels) to permit storms to form. 

Expecting then the best 'convergence' for greatest lift will occur a bit further inland and more northward today as the east coast sea breeze will have been able to have manifested both for a longer amount of time with greater inland penetration  as the ridge axis lifts north before wedding with the west coast sea breeze boundary.

Image shows a potential region of best low level converge / lift (in red) though not exclusively so. Another area which is highly conditional for some stronger activity is far SW Interior Florida or toward the Southwest side of Lake O.

Some rains might be able to find their way back to the coast eventually as light, debris type rains as winds in the upper levels (beginning around 20,000 ft) will remain a 'good' WSW strength to at least bring cloud cover back, mainly North Brevard northward.

SUNDAY and BEYOND: Again, not much change in the highly questionable, 'what will become of what is to become of what might occur around the Yucatan' time frame. 

Guidance is still in disparity about what will occur in this region going into Monday. Regardless, deeper moisture is still forecast to make a return from South to North from morning through mid-late afternoon tomorrow from mid-morning through late afternoon. 

Suspect that earlier day activity will begin across South Florida and spread north and west during the day. Along the immediate east coast north of Vero Beach this might manifest eventually only as cloud cover but no guarantees. 

If the moisture spreads north more quickly before too much of an onshore (ESE-SE wind) flow develops, we might see an area of showers/storm working south to north even up the coastal areas, though as of this time thinking is that 'true rainfall' will remain 'just west' of I-95 north of Vero or Sebastian.

Increasing cloud coverage might also limit the extent of actually 'thunder' on Sunday as well as that we might not see a vigorous sea breeze collision this day, and as a result, not as many thunderstorms.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Much is contingent on the outcome of strength/movement of what is to occur in the tropics. Overall, the better chances of rainfall and storms appears to be over the western 1/4 or 1/3 of the state from Ft Myers up to the Big Bend in the next few days, with coastal activity (esp. in the late night/early morning) along the east coast also a possibility. Again, though, this time frame appears to be a big TBD.

 Regardless, it seems most likely that rain chances for the regions east of I-95 may significantly decrease going into Monday or Tuesday through late week next week as flow becomes more southeasterly from bottom to top.

Outside of 'that potential' the next pattern shift to favor more toward the east coast is not foreseen until around the 24th time frame.

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Friday, June 16, 2017

'Strong' Storms Possible Near East Coast Today

Recent Weather Pattern has made for some interesting sunrises
TODAY: The recent cyclical nature of the 'wash, rinse, repeat' weather pattern of recent days is undergoing some subtle but pertinent transformations at time and will continue to do so through Saturday.

Abundant moisture in the atmosphere (higher PWAT, precipitable water) will still be in place today  as will the cool air aloft ..the subtle shift today is in that there will be more of a gentle nudge in the winds aloft to bring some 'bona fide' thunder to the immediate east coast beaches (particularly north of Vero Beach).  

Even at  pre-sunrise showers and some storms are well off both coasts with the activity off the Florida East coast clearly lifting out to the northeast; this is often a fore-bearer or sign of what might transpire later in the day, namely pretty good coverage of showers and storms.

The news overall is 'big heat' across parts of the Desert Southwest building into West Texas and parts of Oklahoma and Western Kansas as a heat ridge. This building heat out west and a bit of a blocking pattern to the east of the U.S. will allow an upper level trough to drop or even 'squeeze' south a bit more  today across of the eastern 1/3 of the country , including Florida. 

In response, the steering winds aloft will manifest from a more WSW component as the day wears on; whereas in the past few days there has been almost no steering at all, and apparent storm motions were mainly along outflow boundaries merging with lake breezes and what little of a sea breeze would form along either coast making for very slow and erratic storm motion.

The pattern change (for today) actually began to develop late yesterday but will be much more in affect today, and more so on Saturday.

The low down, for blog purposes (only) is in thinking that some stronger storms could form along the easterly progressing west coast sea breeze accompanied by outflow boundaries leading the way as activity develops along the west coast mainly from Tampa and north. As this activity converges with the east coast sea breeze is where the stronger storms might form, and they then would press east and offshore.

If any really stronger storms will form, the better chances are those areas that will be the latest to receive them  - that is to say,  the areas where the atmosphere has not been 'worked over' by earlier day rain activities.

For now, given the current forecast wind pattern aloft, will surmise that mainly East Central and East South Central will be the areas to watch today for stronger storms where the east coast sea breeze might have the greatest opportunity to conflict with incoming boundary propagations and/or the west coast sea breeze after the most heating, and thus  where destabilization of the atmosphere will have had the best opportunity to amass over the longest time frame.

SATURDAY: Guidance is fairly consistent that the "Deep Moisture" of recent days will have shifted off shore and south with today's activity this evening. 

As a result, overall atmospheric moisture levels will be lower tomorrow though the wind fields will remain about the same, if not even a bit more favorable for the east coast mainly north of Vero Beach.

 The mid-level westerlies might weaken some   tomorrow further south as the low level Atlantic Ridge axis may start to lift back and reassert itself northward into South Central later in the day. 

Overall coverage on Saturday might be much lower than today as a result and details are still coming out as 'sketchy' in the model guidance. Most models are showing very little rain coverage on Saturday; but for now will play the 'moisture convergence later in the day' card along mainly the Eastern Interior Portions of the state then toward the east coast later in the day

SUNDAY: The 'lower moisture levels' will be short lived however as it returns 'enforce' from South Florida to Central by mid or late afternoon. Steering  on Sunday will not favor the east coast nearly so much as the interior as it become more south to north or even from the SSE to NNW. 

On the other hand, sometimes with moisture return from south to north one will find showers and thunder progressing northward  from the south that could affect almost anywhere. It appears now that South Florida and parts of South Central could 'get into the game' fairly early on in the day on Sunday.

Also to observe that the GFS , as mentioned in a previous post, was getting a bit 'iffy' come the Sunday or Monday time frame as a result of 'presumed activity' it was foreseeing to occur down near the Yucatan and/or the far Western Caribbean. If watching TV station weather, one will find 'much talk' in regard to the tropical forecast come next week as a result of what might go on down there.

In any case, increasing clouds and rain chances re-emerge on Sunday but exactly how that will be realized across Central Florida is TBD.

MONDAY-NEXT WEEK: Models are all over the place as to what might or might not occur with the tropics. Guidance is everywhere from forming a low near or over the Yucatan and taking it west toward the coast of Mexico or far south Texas to a low forming and moving toward Louisiana..or even a low forming more toward the east of the Yucatan and lifting it north toward the Florida panhandle...or even no  low forming at all but instead simply an inverted trough axis  emerges that runs from the Yucatan to about 100 miles west of the Florida west coast. As a result, rain chances are very difficult to determine with much accuracy given the varying scenarios. 

If the low does form, even to tropical depression status and gets fairly wrapped up and remains  well south and west of Florida, chances are that rain chances will go down significantly. 

The more 'open' any area of low pressure remains and more easterly the trough is (toward Florida), the higher the rain chances will be.

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Saturday, June 10, 2017

Last Gasp for East Coast Rain Chances Today For a While

June 11th, 2014 Cape Canaveral Arcus

TODAY: Another atypical June day in store, though will be wet in several locations with thunderstorms or rain showers (or only even stratoform rain); the days of recent events were not what one would think to find in early June which is usually typified by more isolated activity and less overall cloud cover through the day -- just not this year .  Last year was not very typical either if there really is such a thing.

Regardless, though it was rather quiet yesterday for the most part as a frontal boundary had progressed to South Florida, the remnants will return northward at least in terms of some 'deeper moisture' and a subtle wind shift. The wind shift boundary may even be very close to right across 'dead Central" as of this writing before sunrise. 

The question of the day is , 'but where will rains be most concentrated today?'. It appears that Central Florida is already primed for thunderstorms (though not especially 'strong') even prior to sunrise, and was in the process of being 'primed' even late yesterday.  

Though deepest moisture is across South Florida do not believe that will be the focus of the 'better' storms today, but rather more along the surface to 850mb boundary (aloft) under the existence of some 'effective shear' from surface to 500mb which , as is being forecast by at least one model, to be across Central Florida come the hours just after 'peak heating'.  

Steering will be toward the ENE or from west to east across Central at about 10-15knts across mainly South Central and not as much so further North. If all stands true according to 'current thinking' (only) then the better chances for a storm to move 'offshore the east coast' would be from near West Palm Beach north toward Titusville. 

Otherwise, perhaps we will  see 'something like'  what is shown below , with   overall coverage being greatest just inland toward Osceola County, Orange County , Eastern Polk County, to Northern Okeechobee County with a drift toward the east coast. Thus, though some areas will not see a thunderstorm overhead today, many areas might end the late afternoon to early evening hours with a persistent light rain fall, with perhaps an occasional 'rumble over head' due to linger in cloud anvil lightning debris activity.

SUNDAY: Changes in place through at least Wednesday for all storm activity to remain well west of I-95 toward the West Coast. Sunday's focus might be more toward the I-10 corridor to near the Big Bend area and maybe as far south as the Tampa Bay area, but as the week progresses more areas will see rain down the interior peninsula  - almost exclusively west of I-95.  

The better concentration of activity will likely be up and down Rte 27 or between there and the Florida Turnpike for a number of days.

Arcus Cloud Formations outlining the outflow From Classic Sea Breeze convergence storms alone
have been rather rare so far this season along the east coast

THURSDAY-BEYOND: Hints continue of early morning to pre-noon showers (maybe thunder) along the east coast progressing inland during the day as flow becomes much more southerly ; however, this is all linked into what might be going on toward the Bay of Campeche or the far Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is great inconsistency that far out in time, but as it stands now next Saturday could be a bit wet even for the east coast (though this questionable).

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Thursday, June 8, 2017

Remote Chance of Thunder East Central/The Southeast - Mostly Sparsed Showers

Last of the 'Rainy Period' Closes on Brevard County Wednesday

TODAY: What a difference an over-night makes. As referenced previously (per model consensus), the deep moisture and highest PWAT air has moved off to the east (and far South) along with strongest winds aloft since late yesterday and overnight. Though lower stratus and surface moisture remains it is  unapparent to the observer on the ground apart from seeing rawinsonde data and water vapor satellite imagery (see below image).

With less moisture could see more breaks in the cloud cover once heating begins especially over North Florida and South Central/South Florida. Central will have the better chance of seeing more clouds today as a frontal boundary works south this morning from I-10 toward I-4 and even toward the Beach-Line Corridor by around 5pm later today.

A weak low level circulation shows up on infrared satellite imagery roughly 100 miles west of Brooksville before dawn this morning (see above). 

It is expected that this may become absorbed into the upper level pattern and move east along the frontal boundary this afternoon which could provide some minimal 'punch ' to the 'front' this afternoon. Apart from convergence along the slow moving boundary, hard to justify thunder in the absence of low level convergence and warm air aloft without 'significant' triggers streaming aloft over head, at least not being indicated per early morning guidance(s), other than across the frontal zone and  Southeast Florida   where some guidance paints storms forming near I-95 and quickly moving offshore to the east in the presence of low level instability and deeper moisture. 

The Graphics for blog purposes are not showing that potential; however, thunder could still occur over eastern portions of South Florida if things play out 'just right' down in that region.


FRIDAY: Frontal boundary expected to make it to  'somewhere  Lake Okeechobee region'   by mid-afternoon and mostly lose identity. Sea Breeze convergence and steering aloft still from the SW appears to paint a chance of showers/thunder mainly Central and Eastern portions of the state from I4 and south.

SATURDAY: What remains of the boundary lifts back to the north toward I-10 making for a bit of a 'pseudo-warm front type affair' going into Saturday afternoon for the region of North Central Florida. 

Sea breezes still at work for convergence and increased overall moisture (PWAT air) from 1.75" - 2.00" could lead to some storms and perhaps on the stronger side East Central as   some colder air aloft might pass overhead. Storm movement again toward the east but rather slowly, which might lead up to some locally high rainfall totals.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Pattern shift in full affect will have commenced as mainly east to southeast flow begins. As a result, east coast apart from the chance of a remote coastal overnight to pre-noon shower will remain dry with the majority of rainfall chances along the west coast and even offshore the west coast.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Still up in the air for this time frame, but so far not looking 'high and dry'. GFS continues to indicate increasing moisture with a more SSE type flow regime both surface and up through the mid-levels. Coastal showers possible most any time moving into the late Thursday- Friday time frame. There are implications of a tropical connection from   the Yucatan but guidance is shifting around, proving to be unreliable for future projections in regard to any form of a Tropical Forecast (though it's not stopping some from spreading hyped up 'rumors' so a heads up if you see one ) as well as the local or even state forecast.  

Suffice it to say for now, we are going to be moving into one 'type' of summer  pattern the first half of next week at least, which favors the interior and mostly the west coast for late day thunder. 

Another type would favor the interior only, and another type would favor the east side of the state.

Much depends on the location of the low level Atlantic surface ridge (Bermuda High) axis location and steering aloft. In this case coming up, the surface ridge axis will be north of Florida making for easterly flow, though rather light at least up through Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday the 'impressions' being given as of this morning is a much more wet pattern evolving heading to late week, next weekend.

Child Flees the Scene as Storm Clouds Move In


Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Chance of Strong Storms , Near and South of I-4

Thunderstorm Slides Moving by Just to the North of Cape Canaveral Tuesday Afternoon
TODAY: Another day of 'possible strong to severe storms' but with close to nary a severe report at hand. Again, the risk is 'conditional' upon a variety of situational circumstances that will either 'make it or not to happen'.

 Temperatures aloft are not all that cold though there is enough shear aloft when coupled with respectable instability (which has been lacking) that could potentially amount to strong winds especially in and near  very heavy rainfall in a brief amount of time with PWAT (precipitable water) air  still looming at or over 2.00".  

Storm activity over far SW Florida and off the coast over night has spread a canopy of dense cirrus/cirrostratus cloud across the southern half of the state northeastward. The question at hand has been , as a result: "Will that canopy persist?",  because if so we could write off any chances of 'strong' storms today, let alone much thunder at all. 

Heavy Rain Ekes by Just to the North of Downtown Cape Canaveral,
to just north of Jetty Park

As of 8AM it appears the last of the stronger activity way Down South has ended and first glimpses at satellite imagery (in the visible spectrum) shows clearing across western portions of Florida working eastward as the high clouds press on out to the north and east of the state. Thus, if this continues to be the case with clearing all the way to the east coast, then destabilization of the atmosphere could lead to rapid development of shower activity once convective temperatures are reached. 

The early morning sounding at the Cape shows that temperature to be 87F degrees which might be hard to attain. On the other hand, that value might go down during mid morning. 

To consider though against strong storms is the 700mb temperature coming in at  a warm 10C  and 500MB barely much colder than a -6C.

 Winds aloft at those levels in the  mid 30kts to lower 40kts range. All combined with heavy down pours , would 'at least think' that non-severe but stronger winds are still possible in the 42-55 mph range at the surface in the strongest of storms, so will be interesting to see how things transpire today, to play it on the 'conservative side' as of early this morning until more information can come in.

For now, have outlined (in yellow) where it would seem the better likelihood of 'strong storms' will be today going into early evening (Southern most parts of the state by then), but to note that SPC (The Storm Prediction Center) has the majority of the state in what would be considered a 'marginal risk' for 'severe category winds' , even a weak 'tornado' most anywhere.  

Overall, boundary interactions of unpredictable nature as showers/storms evolve will end up being instrumental in determining what does or does not evolve where and when as storms move off briskly to the east and north east this afternoon.

THURSDAY: Frontal boundary still across North Florida , but strongest winds aloft will have moved out to the north and east of the state by Thursday afternoon.  Perhaps we can see some more sun this day and destabilization but weaker winds aloft. 

Steering will still be from the SW rather strong and not expecting an east coast sea breeze this day. The frontal boundary is still forecast to be across Central Florida during peak heating hours somewhere near Titusville on the east coast by around 2PM making only slow southward progress. 

Exactly how far south the surface boundary makes it appears might be toward Lake Okeechobee well after dark; even so, if the boundary makes it will south (after dark)r,  just above the deck at 2000 ft the same boundary remains tilted back to Central Direct bisecting Brevard County (for example). 

Thinking for blog purposes is that it is this boundary that will be the focal point for the better likelihood of showers and thunder toward the east side of the state on Thursday and thus at this point am painting Southern Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River Counties as 'prime targets' for afternoon atmospheric festivities. We'll just have to see on that though

FRIDAY:  Regardless of how far south the surface boundary makes it (as noted above), even to Okeechobee, consensus is that over night toward sunrise it will retreat back north again so to be located near the Titusville (east coast) toward North side Tampa Bay (West Coast) during peak heating hours. Deepest moisture is along and south of that boundary. It appears the east coast sea breeze might be able to form for Brevard if this is the case where pressure gradient is weakest yet steering remains from the South west. 

This day (and Saturday) might end up being even bigger rain makers for Brevard/Indian River/Southern Volusia  and St. Lucie county BEACHES than have these recent days .  

SATURDAY: Again, East Central appears to be the focus for best rain chances but also more toward the interior. Sea breezes at work with slower steering toward the east coast but the retreating boundary, sort of a   "pseudo- warm  dew point front" (the boundary being defined by higher dew-points and wind shift line rather than warmer ambient air temperature) , retreats well to Georgia placing all of the state into the 'thunder chances ' once again. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model has been hitting on East Central for nearly 6 runs now over 2 days, if that means anything, meaning 'chance of storms on the beach Saturday afternoon' for East Central Counties  mainly south of Daytona and north of Ft Pierce.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Much drier pattern at hand. By Sunday morning or noon time light southeast flow at the surface and up to the mid level begins and overall air mass is much 'drier' at least relative to what we've been under the influence of the past few days. Any activity will be well inland with much less overall coverage.

Appears that either late Tuesday or Wednesday deeper moisture might make a return to the East Coast from Volusia and south resulting in even morning or nocturnal shower chances so worth watching for that.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Too far out to say with accuracy. GFS implies steering currents become more westerly Wednesday afternoon as surface winds become more southerly and thunder and overall rain chances increase state wide, possibly even for the immediate east coast.

EVEN BEYOND THAT: The GFS and to some degree the CSF-v2 (climatology model) are showing something tropical emerging up from the SW Gulf of Mexico. 

The GFS has been showing a Tropical Storm coming over Florida or more so the Eastern Gulf, while the CSF-v2 shows something much weaker into the Central Gulf. Either way, it's far too early to wager any bets that far out in time, though the GFS has been quite consistent at least on 'something forming' and affecting Florida one way or the other. Time will tell  but not really worth the mention until it's still so less than 10 days out. Chances are then, if it continues to show this, we'll be hearing about it 'NEXT" weekend all the more via media outlets.

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Monday, June 5, 2017

Rain Chances Again Today with Stronger Activity Possible Tuesday/Wednesday

"Take Cover" - next few days will not be fit for 'sun-bathing'
TODAY: Pattern change began taking place after midnight and will continue to do so through the course of the day and 'be in affect' most pronouncedly Tuesday and Wednesday as noted in the previous post when it was mentioned there could be a 'chance' of 'strong storms' those days.

The change for today is the development of steering currents aloft for storm motion from the WSW-SW toward the ENE-NE (as opposed to very slow to none) as an upper level trough digs 'unusually' deep for this time of year across the North Central Gulf region and approaches Florida as the ridge axis retreats to the east and south of the state.  Today is a day of being in between the direct influence of the ridge where steering currents were very very slow and the direct influence of the approaching trough as well. As a result, this is a bit of an 'in between day' as on primary influence departs and another approaches. Regardless, gradient winds aloft between the two features are  coming increasingly into affect and will be noted even at ground level by SW winds though still a bit weaker at ground level.

In regard to sensible weather, showers are already approaching SW Florida before dawn in association with a mid-level disturbance which is forecast to approach the east coast mainly from I-4 and south during the mid-afternoon hours. Surface gradient winds might not be strong enough to hold off the east coast sea breeze today, and as such we could see an added 'boost' to activity as outflow from earlier activity over SW /W Florida meets the sea breeze which probably , if it can form, won't get much further west than I-95.  Heating and thus destabilization will not be all so tremendous today due to cloud cover so wouldn't expect we'll see much in 'strong storms' today, but locally heavy rainfall is possible as also  an up-tick in the lightning strike potential.

TUESDAY: The 3KM NAM is hitting hard on the potential for stronger storms mainly due to wind in and near larger storms. Blinding, torrential downpours with this wind is possible with relatively large rainfall totals in a brief amount of time. All the forecast discussions from Official Outlets are hitting hard on the 'rainfall potential' and 'localized flooding' in prone areas realm after scanning through them this morning. The reasons and causes are far to complex and complicated to elaborate over for simplicity's sake and readability (blog purposes).

In general, with Tuesday comes stronger winds aloft primarily over Central and South Florida. Will not get into talking about North Florida though strong to severe there is also possible mainly east of Tallahassee. The areas of greater interest involves the region closer to the base of the upper level trough where the strongest winds at the 500mb level (around 20,000 feet aloft) will be, which is at this time Central Florida as well as at times, South Florida.

CURRENT EARLY MORNING RADAR MONDAY (region in between the red lines
is where "STRONGER" activity is foreseen might occur on Tuesday)

Timing on when activity will make an impact is also questionable for Tuesday. There might well be pre-sunrise or over night storms (more likely toward the West Coast and Panhandle) than at the east coast.

Overall, radar simulations for Tuesday are showing an area as noted in the image above between the red lines to be most impacted  though this is only for depiction purposes . Regardless, stronger storms are more certain to occur Tuesday and Wednesday by far than today as winds aloft increase. 

The current pattern we are in is in no way   reflective of the typical "summer type' storm pattern we'd normally expect to find this time of  year. In Fact, June this year so far (though still early) has proven to be anything but   typical . The high precipitable water values in excess of 2.00" looks more like something in late August, especially with how long it's been going on..and as it looks now..will continue after a brief respite  on Thursday and Friday.

WEDNESDAY: Another big day of possible strong storms but like Tuesday, could evolve in a number of different ways so will not get into the details on this post. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlining the majority of the state this day with a 'Marginal Risk' of 'Severe Weather'...there are several ingredients at play for 'severe' but none of them look particularly over whelming.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: The GFS is now holding off on the southward extent of the approaching 'cold front' mentioned the other day. The front is now no longer expected to reach South Florida but to wash out somewhere near I-4 or a line running from Central Volusia or just north of Volusia toward a Brooksville line.  Traces of the front are  now indicated at the surface to be across Direct Central though, and that is mentioned as it could to serve as a focal (convergence) point for much more isolated activity on Thursday.

Otherwise, the crux of the deep layer moisture and high PWAT (precipitable water) air (of over 2.00") will depart along with the stronger mid-upper level winds after Wednesday, leaving the remnant boundary straggling behind across Central Florida and still high PWAT air across Far South Florida. Sea breezes appear might be able to come back into play this day with two focus areas. One being along the remnant boundary and then further south toward Lake Okeechobee and south.

SATURDAY: Lower PWAT air but not for long. Like in the previous post, even though the front is not forecast to make it as far south, the high PWAT air is. However, it is still forecast to retreat back north toward a line running from Canaveral to Tampa by day's end. Steering will be lighter from the SW-WSW and sea breezes will become active this day with a chance of thunder mainly Central southward with a drift toward the east coast.

SUNDAY: Highest moisture may make it as far north as I-4 from Daytona toward Cedar key region with again sea breezes being active. So far does not look to be 'as cloudy 24/7' over all at this point. Temperatures aloft not all so cold so looks like another chance of the bigger threat being flooding rains locally after several previous days of soaking that are coming up.

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Saturday, June 3, 2017

Best Rain Chances Interior Today/Sunday - Stronger Storms Possible Next Week

Thunderstorm Erupts over West Cocoa as a Result of Seabreeze and Outflow Collisions

TODAY: Soundings came in with high precipitable water content once again (surprise surprise) and almost no steering of which to speak of. Atmosphere was not terribly unstable at the low levels however upper levels are still rather cool. 

The CAPE came in with a convective temperature of only 82F but surrounding areas were running around 86F to 87F. Models are not  breaking out any true rainfall of convective nature until after sea breezes get going and more so as they approach each other accompanied by areal lake breezes well inland going toward mid-afternoon which makes sense. 

The only fly in the ointment in regard to 'location of best rainfall' chances appears with the late morning visible satellite image showing the best clearing over the North Half of the state but the southern area might begin to catch up in the 'clearing' department over the next few hours. What effect that might have on the potential for slightly stronger and heavier storms cannot say as there are no indications that this clearing will have much affect on future outcomes which looks suspect. More clearing means better heating and as a result more heat energy to add some punch to the activity that does manage to erupt.

Undulatus Type Altocumulus Over The Ocean This Morning

Models are generally focusing  on   the direct spine of the state running north - south almost anywhere to get the heaviest rainfall in the form of thunder and showers with inevitably 'some location' getting the lions share going toward late day into sunset.

 So far an area not far from where that happened to be last night is in favor again, namely the Osceola/Polk/part of Orange/Southern Lake Counties, but not exclusively for bigger totals,noting that there will also be areas that won't see a drop today, with that mostly likely being anywhere along any coast.

The wind aloft is still strong from the west above the storm steering level, so either way you look at it by day's end most areas will end up with high to mid level overcast conditions outside of the rain fall areas.

SUNDAY: Not too much change this day but thinking is that rainfall might be able to occur over a better expanse, 'and/or' it might come in the form of slightly 'healthier thunderstorms' than it will today  .

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: A frontal boundary will drop to the Deep South and toward the North Florida border going toward the Wednesday time frame. By Monday and especially Tuesday-Wednesday - Thursday storm steering  will be from the west southwest to southwest at 15-20kts (as opposed to almost non-existent like today/tomorrow) which will push activity to the east coast locations. 

Some days might have an 'early onset' meaning no waiting until 4-5pm to get your chance of rain and thunder in.  

On Wednesday some storms 'might' be on the stronger side if the 'GFS" gets its way with more unstable and colder aloft as opposed to this 'sunk in the muck' non-descript type of atmospheric puddle we are currently under.

BEYOND: GFS brings the frontal boundary down to South Florida greatly diminishing rain chances for the north half of the state for a day or two, only to lift it back north and increase chances once again. 

Not sure if the ECMWF (European) takes it as far south as that though.  We are talking now at Thursday of next week, so plenty of time for things to change. Either way, the rain chances do not appear to be going away much anytime soon or if so for very long...and in regard to next week they only increase (especially for 'anywhere east coast').

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