"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, June 26, 2017

Greater Rainfall Coverage - Isolated Rainfall Amounts over 2" Possible

On this date, June 26, 2014. Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: We'll, give'r yet another try to see what can be brewed up today across the state. Morning soundings came in similar to yesterday morning's temperature wise aloft, but with a bit more moisture above 700mb. Last evenings soundings showed that the 700mb level had warmed up to 10C from a cooler morning reading and in part resulted in less activity (and of less strength), but will surmise that the same will not occur today due to consistency across model guidance shown between models and within model runs that more coverage is to be expected. Will it ring true ?

Per surface analysis combined with mesoscale features appears ye olde frontal boundary is close to the I-10 up along the Panhandle whereas a secondary zone of 'contention', almost like a broad pre-frontal boundary or deformation zones lies roughly along a line, on the south end, running east to west from near Titusville west to Brooksville, with the northern side running from near Ormond Beach toward Cedar Key on the west coast. Within that zone is where the greatest coverage is expected at least for starters but wouldn't bet that's where the activity will be toward early evening as suspect that area will be the first to blow up north. 

Further north yet still colder air aloft combined with convergence along the boundary  itself might yield a stronger storm or two which could even move off shore at such locales as JAX , Ponte Vedra, St. Augustine,  and south toward Palm Coast.

Further south sea breeze converge combined with greatest moisture running along to just north of the I-4 is the next bone on contention to pick .  Some activity could move off shore here as well for at least Central Volusia and north if things were to work out just so. Other activity even over Pinellas County however, might be able to get an early start just prior to or as the west coast sea breeze manifests.  In this area and perhaps a bit further south, due to slow storm motions we could see an isolated report or two of over 2.00" of rain before all is said and done.

Dead Central might see some isolated showers pop up mainly along the northside of the Cape earlier in the day but suspect the real show for Central will primarily not begin until after 4:30-5pm and could last up through 10pm or so. Most activity will eke toward US1 but might not be able to  bridge the gap across the rivers due to extremely slow steering in competition with the sea breeze.

As we journey further south toward Vero on down expect sea breezes will have worked will inland before any activity can really get going with any true punctuated vigor, more like a comma to the day,  other than a few showers and maybe some thunder near Lake Okeechobee as the sea breeze sets up. Though this graphic shows thunder well south, most of it will be isolated (within those areas, except for Central/Northern parts of the state where the concentration might be a bit greater later today) Okeechobee County comes to mind.

TUESDAY: Though this day has looked for a while like a 'good coverage' day for the most part, not sure how well cloud coverage from today's activity will have cleared and as a result we'll just have to wait until then. Other than that fact though, better rain chances continue south of I-4, with even a better chance of east coastal rains well down the remainder of the state while the far north begins to dry out a bit.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Storms will mainly favor the spine of the state to the west a bit, though showers could occur further east, even at the coast  earlier in the day but be isolated at best.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY - FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: Looks like a typical summer set up so far, with perhaps a bit above normal in the rain chance category. GFS model keeps going back and forth on which side of the state (if any) might be more favored for late day thunderstorms on the Fourth. The last GFS run was   favoring the east side of the state just a bit, whereas the previous run showed no chance of storms for the east coast for nearly a good 2 weeks. Just too far out in time to make that determination.

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