"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 29, 2016

Near Record Highs Far East Central - Much Colder Friday / Rapid Turn Around Sunday

Sunrise Thursday, December 29, 2016, Cocoa Beach

TODAY: Cold front  - associated with Winter Storm Fortis now in the formative stages just near the coast of Virginia which will lift north to north-northeast and strengthen - is currently draped  near the Florida / Georgia Border having already pushed through the Western Panhandle where temperatures are falling through the 60Fs with a brisk NW wind. 

Meanwhile well south of the front toward I-4 and south, the entire day light hours will be spent ahead of the boundary  which marks the leading edge of  colder/drier air spilling southward.  Looks like areas south of I-4 will mainly see an  increase in cloud cover toward sunset and possibly a rain-shower after dark, with better rain chances north of I-4.

FRIDAY: Regardless , the wind shift associated with this incoming cold front should press across North Central to South Central between the hours of 8PM - 11PM or so, and be very close to a Canaveral to South Tampa Bay line near 9:15PM tonight. Wind will shift to NW and be gusty at times and quickly begin to dry out, but the temperature drop so far does not appear to be "Rapid" though will be noticeable immediately.  

Morning lows most areas south of I-4 will see mid-upper 40Fs with lower 50Fs from the Cape and and South nearer the immediate east coast , mainly east of US1.  So far the coldest low I've seen in Canaveral this 'fall-winter' season is around 51F-52F ish at my location, and this one so far does not look like it will get colder than that, if even. However, wind will be gusting through the early morning hours into the mid afternoon and slowly begin to wane late in the day Friday making it feel a bit too cool for splashing at the shore.

Due to the timing of the front and peak hours of cold air advection being during day time hours , Friday might be the all around coolest day yet regardless though, with afternoon highs north of Canaveral to Tampa line barely ekeing out of the upper 50Fs range, and if so only for a brief period of time. Coupled with a good breeze and gusts, it won't exactly be 'beach weather' tomorrow.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR'S EVE): This day will see much lighter wind as the associated high pressure area building in behind the front will be at its nearest proximity, though north of the state. 

Thus, probably won't see 'prime radiational cooling coupled with drainage flow at play, but rather favoring the NW Quadrant of the state for the coldest air, even toward freezing near the I-10 and possibly colder pockets south toward Ocala.  

The immediate east coast will be similar to the previous morning but with much less wind baring any change in the circumstances which would bring old mercury down even lower. 

It's a wait and see thing. Regardless , by afternoon this day could be nearly 10F degrees warmer than Friday as the wind begins to swing to the east and  'air mass modification' begins a slow at first turn around to warmer and less dry.

SUNDAY - HAPPY NEW YEAR!: Full 'air mass modification' in  swing overnight Saturday night with Sunday dawning along the East Coast (New Year's Day) near the 70F mark at the beaches.  

Highs New Year's Day in the mid-upper 70Fs with a good southeast wind.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:  Much warmer again, well above average with possibly 'new record highs' on Tuesday. Only stickler here is a disturbance passing over head on Monday which could increase rain chances Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning in some locations, or even only cloud cover. Will keep watching Monday for chance of GFS is not consistent in how it is dealing with this day just yet.

NEXT TIME TO GET COLD?: Too soon to say. Could be around January 9th or so, or maybe not. GFS trends toward bringing boundaries this way and suddenly dampening them out across Central Florida one after the other. In other words, can't say. The latest GFS run which goes out to the 14th shows that Friday will be the coldest day until then (which will likely change).

No comments:

Saturday, December 17, 2016

All Eyes on Near Record Highs - Storms Possible Sunday

TODAY (SATURDAY): Slowly increasing moisture in moist southerly flow with slight onshore component early morning keeping the temperature near the east coast around 70F (and above) most locations from the Cape and south , east of or near US1, while other locations vary from the mid 50Fs to mid 60Fs elsewhere.  Some thin higher clouds streaming by should clear the area making for a partly cloudy afternoon with heating of the day. There 'might' be an increase in cloud cover late in the day toward Eastern parts due to moisture convergence, with even the NAM model implying showers to form, though suspect it's overblown in that regard.

SUNDAY: Continued veering of wind to due south, even a bit SSW . Temperatures most areas to reach the lower to even potentially mid 80Fs getting close to record levels for the date. Guidance continues to imply a chance of showers passing near the coast early in the day (though probably will for the most part remain offshore), as a powerful cold front that has put the 'deep freeze' on many parts of the country glides through the Deep South. High pressure over the Western Atlantic with its axis across South Central will put the brakes on that boundary though going into Sunday night somewhere close to or just south of the I-4 region.

Meanwhile, with continued moisture advection and warm temperatures, will see CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) reach up to around 1500 J/kg which is rather unusual for December. (IN summer it can reach over 4000 J/kg, but in winter it mostly is around 500 J/kg or below to non-existent, for comparison's sake).  Moisture convergence and decent low level lapse rates combined with increased low level helicity along the east coast of Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties combined with the instability could result in some thunderstorms (though isolated) over mainly East Central and perhaps parts of interior South Central. Was tempted to cry , 'Possibly Strong' !   but mid level lapse rates are forecast to be weak and wind fields aloft are too weak to truly justify that call, apart from a random fluke , non-zero chance .

MONDAY: Frontal boundary gets absorbed around the outer most fringes of the cold air mass over much of the country as high pressure centered well north of Florida moves east resulting in a light, easterly to variable wind flow for a time. All this will means is slightly cooler in the mornings  with less chance of rain ; however, cloud cover could become problematic for about 2 days as moisture along the old boundary will take some time to thin out.

Regardless, latest trends are for highs in the lower 80Fs, with even a chance of a shower, possibly a random thunderstorm inland this day,  but wouldn't put any bets on the thunder risk just yet. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Fairly benign pattern in place these days look  a bit like what the weather was like on Friday  with the chance of shower caveat thrown in, with a generally lighter easterly wind flow, some clouds, and above normal temperature regime but not record breaking, with morning/overnight showers possible close to the east coast south of the Daytona Beach area toward Miami. We might again need to watch for 'thunder' by Thursday afternoon as wind becomes more southerly by that time ahead of the next front that will be on the approach.

FRIDAY: Next front in question approaches the state but at time suspect it will undergo the same 'fate' as several have already so not taking the bait on any one model run at this point.  It appears the next front will pull  another Quick switcheroo around to an easterly wind shift behind the boundary (assuming it clears Central) to more easterly as the Jet Stream still will reside well north of the state rather than digger down to across or even south of Florida (necessary for the real cold air intrusions). 

CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY: Too far out in time for accuracy. Model guidance has flipped around numerous times with yet the front after this upcoming front on Friday to  varying from a possible cold front passage and much colder to the front never quite getting here yet with not much change, to an increasingly wet period with storms possible, all of which directly imply that it's too soon to say what Christmas Day will be like at this point.

No comments:

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Showers or a Storm Today ,Cooler then Much Cooler Friday-Saturday

TODAY: Complicated series of  frontal boundaries to affect Florida today through late Thursday before clearing the area early Friday. Until then, latest guidance and surface observations shows a poorly organized 'cool front' type boundary across South Georgia as a pre-frontal trough . The 'True Cold Front' is still much further north and west into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley to approach and pass through Central Florida and into South Florida early Friday to late Friday morning time frame.

Meanwhile, another muggy morning at hand before even sunrise, with temperature and dewpoints in the 70Fs. 

Greatest instability today should occur where least cloud cover can be maintained the longest into peak heating which appears will occur from just north of the I-4 south to parts of far South Central Florida.

Overlaying that instability is 'wind energy' , in this case, speed shear in the mid to upper levels to be most noted mainly north of I-4 to a line running from just north of Sebastian Inlet toward Clearwater, Florida. 

There is very little to no directional shear and temperatures aloft, though cool, aren't anything overly  abnormal. Latest Model Radar Simulations are not showing 'wide spread' storms today but a few of them are showing 'a storm or two' as far south as perhaps the Ft. Pierce (very late after dark) area with another somewhere 'near the  SR 528 zone across to Tampa along I-4 in the mid-afternoon time frame in the more 'favored area for a stronger storm'.
Areas to watch today might be more toward the West Coast from Sarasota and north, though the 4KM-NAM (in the latest run) shows a strong storm over or near Central/North Brevard late afternoon as well.

All in all would expect some increased cloudiness after the sun gets cooking with a chance of a quick moving storm and/or some showers south of I-4  (and north of I-4 earlier as current radar above shows) sometime  after 2pm through 6pm. Otherwise, another warm day.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: The first 'prefrontal boundary' will be near Central Florida early Wednesday morning and it will be nearly 10F degrees cooler most areas as a result, than it is this Tuesday morning. Behind this boundary is drier air and slightly cooler (but barely) temperatures. All in all, the affect of this boundary will be a shift in wind direction and slightly drier air, but the real front will still be nearly 48 hours away. Chance of even a shower however it would appear on Thursday particularly parts of Central to South Florida but storms unlikely except perhaps near and south of the Lake Okeechobee region. No 'rain outs' anticipated and mainy areas during this time period will not see any rain at all.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: What had been heralded as what would have perhaps been 'the coldest yet of the season' has greatly diminished in it's 'cooling capacity' during the past three days per model trends and agreement between them. 

The Final Front-ier should be through near sunrise Friday (Central) though the latest NAM seems to imply...with not much of a cold blast at all. Though wind will be gusting from the NW-NNW most of Central will be seeing either mid- upper 40Fs toward  lower to mid 50Fs, warmest along the East Coast from the Cape and South. 

[If the latest NAM (North American Model) were to pan out, it might be even a bit warmer than that though, with lows mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs across most of Central Florida (but will discount it's 'warmth' for the time being). ]

Granted, about a week ago the GFS was showing mid- upper 30Fs where it is now showing  upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs for the same time frame.

Regardless, this might be , on the NAMs part, due to the slower timing of the frontal passage. Regardless, Friday looks to be a rather cool day all around with the high never reaching 70F except South Florida, even only lower to mid 60Fs for many areas? 

SUNDAY : Either way, agreement is that wind quickly will veer to NE-E and eventually perhaps to the ESE-SE by later on Sunday and decrease with a warm up at hand. The GFS shows no cold front passing through up to nearly December 21st (the first astronomical day of Winter) , at this point, but not set in stone by any means (though that is the latest trend .  

Regardless, does look like from Sunday for the following week temperatures will run above normal once gain, and remaining dry for the most part.

No comments:

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

"Cool Snap" Over - Near to Above Average' Temperatures to Prevail into December

Cape Canaveral, Tuesday Morning
TODAY: End of the 'colder mornings' transpired this morning as a gradual warm up begins this evening. As high pressure slides to the east (and north of Florida) a generally light easterly flow should be just strong enough to prevent temperatures this evening from falling nearly so much as the past several days, especially east of I-95 where dew-point temperatures will rise the most after dark.

 Lows Wednesday morning could be anywhere from 10-15F degrees warmer than this morning's low temperatures as a result. 

The coolest areas will be near Rte 27 toward I-4, the  'West Central Spine of the state' with lows in the upper 40Fs to lower-mid 50Fs but lows at the immediate east coast beaches will be closer to 65F -70F Wednesday morning, according to most guidance. Dew point temperature will also be in on the increase, so might be watching for some 'patch fog' in some locations tomorrow morning.

WEDNESDAY: Again, warmer all quads Wednesday morning and beyond. East Coast , especially east of US1,  probably won't see temperatures below 65F for quite some time to come (except possibly this weekend  - referenced further down in the post).

 Otherwise, Highs on Wednesday in the upper 70Fs to near 80F (esp. inland from the coast). Continued air mass modification of moisture mainly in the lower levels could result in 'patching of flat starto-cumulus cloud deck' between the 4500-6000 feet levels to move in on the coast, with the better chance of that occurring after mid-late morning.

THANKSGIVING: Low near 66F-70F east coast south of The Cape and in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs well-inland. Again, cloud cover could be an issue from time to time. The GFS shows 'very light trace amounts of rain possible under denser cloud deck portions', but question that. Even so, any 'precipitation' twere it to fall, will unlikely   even get the ground wet.

 Overall, temperatures around normal, with a easterly wind around 10-15mph at the beaches with partly to occasionally 'most cloudy' skies perhaps at times.

FRIDAY: Wind becomes more ESE-SE. Normal temperatures ranges prevail as a frontal boundary moves toward the West Florida Panhandle toward Central Florida for Saturday. HIghs in the upper 70Fs - 'near 80F' beaches, and a bit warmer west of I-95. Partly cloudy.

SATURDAY:  Front to be across Central Florida early in the day near Sunrise. Boundary to dry out the air quite a bit through the weekend, but temperatures behind this boundary are not foreseen to fall as low as they did with the previous front that went through Sunday morning of this week. 

Lows mainly in the 50Fs Central and South Florida and closer to 60F- 63F at the beaches both Saturday and Sunday with Highs in the lower-mid-70Fs with a north - NNE wind.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Wind to become again east to Southeast, even SSE on Tuesday? Much warmer possibly than we have seen in a while come Tuesday next week with highs in the lower to mid 80Fs with SSW-SW wind. 

Forecasts are for a 'pretty good chance of MUCH needed rain' with this next boundary, but that is highly questionable at time. Better chances appear  to be for North Florida with mostly 'cloud cover' associated with the front Central through South Florida.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY next week time frame: Front to swing through with rapid shift to NE wind behind it. Thus, not a 'huge' temperature drop with the front (at least as foreseen that far out in time). More like 50Fs for lows (though cooler mainly West of the spine of the state) for two days.

  Beyond that, the next front not slated until after December 1.

No comments:

Saturday, November 19, 2016

"Chwill Factor" Sunday - 'Very Cool' into Tuesday Mid Morning - Thanksgiving Outlook

Mid - Week Sunrise, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: After some early morning 'fog and low clouds' in some areas (but not all), sky should clear greatly to reveal a high in the upper 70Fs with a light NW wind going into the afternoon. For the most part, today will be the last of the 'near normal temperature' days until Wednesday but it will be a real beaut-of-a-day. Mainly clear to near clear sky with a continued NW wind with a temperature around 76F  in place for the Atlas V Launch scheduled for 5:42PM.  See link below:

Atlas V Weather Satellite Launch Information

TONIGHT: First 'big' cold frontal chill of the season statewide with a 'wintery bite' to pass down the state from early evening through 6AM followed by much drier air on the wings of breezy conditions for a time into at least mid-Sunday afternoon. Granted, by later in the season this will be considered 'the norm', but the first time might take a bit getting 'accustomed to'. Lows will be a good 10F lower than we've been seeing (if not more), and accompanied by wind as well will add to the 'chwill' factor.

SUNDAY: The front is slated to be directly across Central Florida in the 11PM - 2AM time frame, to be roughly across a Titusville to North Tampa Bay region at midnight tonight.

 Behind the front a NNW-N wind will pick up to the 18-25mph range with higher gusts  and falling temperatures.  Thus, Sunday morning will be the first morning since last winter that has a Wind-Chilly ('Chwilly') bite to it.  

Warmest morning temperature  will be found east of I-95 if not even US1 from Cape Canaveral south and around to the south end of Lake Okeechobee, with temperatures there in the mid 50Fs range (a bit warmer South Florida) with temperatures in the upper - mid 40Fs further west. Lowest readings near Route 27 west of Orlando shooting north through "The ONF' (Ocala National Forest region). Shooting for a 56F in Cocoa Beach (e.g.).

Highs Sunday ranging around the 67F mark across Central but cooler further north and more toward the lower  70Fs far South Central/South Florida.

MONDAY: This will possibly be the coldest morning yet still, though wind will have died off significantly, probably even by sunset Sunday evening. Wide spread mid-upper 40Fs with drainage flow and prime radiational cooling in place though upper 30Fs not out of the question will inland in low lying protected areas, though again the warmest areas might remain in the lower 50Fs range , mainly east of US1. 

High  on Monday again in the upper 60Fs mainly, but should be a very fine day with light wind.  

TUESDAY: Again, another very cool start to the day warming into the lower-mid 70Fs as wind by now will be from a light NE component, probably by early afternoon. Wind swinging more assuredly around to NE-E overnight Tuesday night will assure the immediate east coast will not fall down into the 50Fs range for quite some time to coming, beginning Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY: If you like what it was like on Thursday and/or Friday (for example) ...Wednesday will be similar with a better likelihood of some cloud cover commencing on the ever re-moistening atmosphere with easterly wind blowing across warmer ocean waters.

Full Moon of Fame Over Florida

THANKSGIVING: Chance of more cloud cover yet still but overall temperature around normal, with lows inland in the 50Fs and more toward mid-upper 60Fs at the beaches at sunrise. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs.  Appears a very weak frontal boundary might slide by late day into the evening but for the most part go unnoticed with little effect to the overall scheme of things other than a slight backing of the surface wind toward the NNW-N.

Canaveral Turkey

BEYOND: Though a few more 'weak frontal' boundaries might slide by in the next week most so far appear will go by generally unnoticed . Some minor shifts in wind direction will be about the only hint they passed by, which could mean some cooler mornings at the coast than other days. Otherwise, continued dry with 'seasonal' temperature ranges.

No comments:

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Cooler All Weekend into At Least Mid-Next Week

Cocoa Beach Pier Monday Morning

TODAY-THURSDAY: Very little to say for the next two days other than 'similar to Tuesday'. Wind from the ENE-NE and brisk at times. Other than perhaps a few very brief spritzes' of drizzle and perhaps some small accumulations over South Florida today looks dry. There is a remote chance that more toward the morning hours to early evening of Thursday a quick shower might fall (better chance than today) but all in all temperatures remaining status quo with the coolest temperatures inland and toward the west coast away from the warming influences of the Atlantic and intracoastal waterways.

For example:  Even at this  pre sunrise hour  it is 65F at Punta Gorda (Wednesday morning) and the reporting station in Daytona is showing 66F. Such temperatures at the beaches of Brevard and South have yet to see such 'cool air' for many months.

FRIDAY MORNING: Cold front will be approaching the state and we lose the ENE-NE winds that have prevailed since Hurricane Matthew passed by.  This morning 'might' be nearly the coolest morning "BEFORE' the front even passes through for the outermost barrier island (namely A1A strip) due to NW surface winds prior to frontal passage, even since last May (!). 

 Inland temperatures will be similar to other mornings , but it is the 'immediate A1A strip' that could see morning lows into the 'mid 60Fs'  easily due to the NW winds rather than the on-shore component off 78F degree ocean temperatures which have produced the mild mornings of recent days at the beaches.

On the other hand, Friday afternoon will be warmer than what has been seen lately for the eastern most parts of the state in quite some time with highs in the mid-upper 80Fs with NW-WNW wind. Front will be on the way though in the overnight  and will pass through 'dry'.

FRIDAY NIGHT- SATURDAY: The cold front per NAM and GFS extrapolation have come to rather close and consistent agreement that the frontal passage will occur across 'Dead Central" (per se) sometime between 11PM - 2AM time frame as evidenced by inspection of forecast Theta-E and Dewpoint Temperature graphics. The wind direction might also attain a more NNW -N component shortly after frontal passage which could put the breaks on any temperature falls  along A1A from Canaveral south toward West Palm Beach in particular.  

Regardless, much drier air will prevail for days to come. Additionally, large expansive high pressure will pass over the Deep South behind the front only to be re-enforced mid week by an even more expansive area of high pressure to expand up and down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard behind a secondary boundary which will pass by 'mainly' overhead and not be realized at the surface over Florida. 

Same old story that has been for the most part in place for a good week now as a result. NE-ENE wind once again as is typical of early-mid fall time frame.

 Difference being this time the overall air-mass quality will be too dry to support rainfall of any kind into at least mid week when this next boundary passes over head. 

The second 'front aloft' sometime  around Wednesday might add enough moisture for showers or at least increased cloud coverage through the remainder of the week toward next weekend. 

Regardless, cooler temperatures round the clock beginning Saturday, most notable west of I-95 (even US1) the first few mornings. The A1A strip from Southern Volusia and Southward might but see lows closer to between 68F -72F most mornings while inland lows, especially Saturday- Monday mornings could be in the mid - upper 50Fs. 

NOTE: All for the immediate A1A strip will depend upon what direction the wind attains overnight. Even a slight variation in wind direction before sunrise could make as much as a 7 degree temperature difference for morning lows for folks that are along A1A from Canaveral and south. Expect some mornings to be much cooler, for example, in Okeechobee than further north in locations like Cocoa Beach.

For inland areas, lows in the mid-upper 60Fs is nothing new already. Lows have already been in the upper 40Fs through the mid-upper 50Fs on several occasions unbeknownst to far-side East Coaster and South Floridians. (though far SW Florida such as the area around Punta Gorda has seen some mid-upper 60Fs). 

Again, it looks possible that such a temperature might be seen BEFORE the front goes through due to the NW winds prior to frontal passage for Brevard and Indian River County beaches ..the question is the wind direction AFTER the fronta passes, especially on Saturday morning. Beyond Saturday morning the east coast beaches south of the Cape will be seeing closer to the 70F mark with a marked drop toward the interior, especially near along Rte 27.

TUESDAY- FRIDAY: Overall, cooler air continues. The immediate beaches might be seeing nearly 'perpetual 70Fs' round the clock with lows close to the 70F hashtag with highs in the mid to eventually upper 70Fs. An hour or two of 80-82F is possible by Tuesday but more likely away from the coast.  

Again, other than Thursday  not much in rain chances  in the cards at least until mid week when the second front 'passes over head' (for now, will say that would be around Wednesday).

TROPICS: No signs other than what is evolving east of the Bahamas of a tropical threat through the remainder of October (so far). Seas might pick up though in the next few days as a result of low pressure formation to the east of the state so would anticipate continued high rip current threat.

Might note that based on Historical Data only 2 hurricanes have been recorded to hit Florida in November. Any activity per the records other than those two storms was either a tropical depression or minimal tropical storm.

No comments:

Friday, September 30, 2016

Chance of Strong to 'Pulse Severe" East Central to Southern Interiors Late This Afternoon

Night Storm Moves Away from the Coast  One Evening Last Week
TODAY: Not a whole lot different on this morning's KSC Atmospheric Balloon Sounding from yesterday and the day before. Temperatures  aloft remain on the colder side with 500MB around -8C . A bit of drying has gone on but that is mostly restricted to a region near to north of I4. Based on satellite loops it looks like the driest of air has made it about as far south as it will get and might even begin to retrograde back north during the day. If so, the region in area of Northern Volusia County could get 'interesting' late today with strong winds possible with the boundary in the area. 

Otherwise, the one thing different today is that it looks like we'll be seeing an east coast sea breeze (East Central) which did not occur yesterday. Latest KSC sounding shows steering could be toward the east at 12-17 mph with a very 'shallow sea breeze' possible, possibly curving more parallel to the coast . 

Wind even at only 950MB which is not far above 'the deck' are still a good 15kts right now but expect they will decrease going toward noon time or so at that level. Regardless, they are much lighter below that level so unless those winds higher up  mix to the surface with a vengeance with day time heating,  a sea breeze should be able to manifest at least as far north as the Cape. Further south, no problem from about Vero and south. The sea breeze is important in regard to stronger storms as it would act as a focusing mechanism for low level convergence once the west coast sea breeze and/or out flow boundaries form inland activity propagate toward the east coast.

Storm Forming right along the East Coast Wednesday afternoon which produced frequent lightning and rain totals over 1.5" inches along the Cape Canaveral into Cocoa Beach areas in particular in a very short amount of time.

Convective temperature is a reachable 87F.  With a boundary (a front that was first thought might pass through by this time today several days ago) still north of North Central Florida and making no further progress...convergence near the boundary up toward Volusia County coupled with an sea breeze might make for some  'interesting' atmospheric festivities later today. 

Otherwise would watch down the coast toward the north end of Port Canaveral, Port St John, Mims, Titusville, Oak Hill regions and perhaps inland toward Sanford from there.  Other areas further south and nearer the coast from Port Canaveral southward to Vero Beach and west to  between US1 to 10 miles west of I-95 a secondary area. The third area of interest around Lake Okeechobee down to the Glades (in which is the lowest confidence at time for "Strong' storms) 

Activity might go into the early evening once again as well in very isolated areas.

SATURDAY: Similar to today but with likelihood of the east coast sea breeze making better inland progress. Most activity will favor near and south of I-4 with possibly earlier in the day showers/storm near the east coast propagating inland, but again, will depend on how quickly the east coast sea breeze gets going in earnest and how strong it is. Steering aloft will still be from the SW but does not look like it will be  either strong nor deep enough to bring storms back to the coast at this point.

SUNDAY: Storm chances restricted to interior and west side of the state though might see morning showers near the east coast up through early afternoon.

BEYOND: All eyes on Hurricane Matthew. Model consensus and National Hurricane Center all point to-ward a Cat 1 - Cat 2 Hurricane passing between 150-300 NM east of Cape Canaveral. The trend has been 'east' over the past 24 hours . Here is only a sample below. IF such a course were taken it could mean a day of higher surf and if the storm were close enough a brief `18 hours o less 'window of opportunity' for small squalls near the east coast to work from NNE to south down the coast around the most western periphery of the storm (as seen on the GFS model).  Given the official forecast track, if it were to verify it is unlikely Florida will see rains directly related to the system, but high surf and possible minor beach erosion is another matter.

That would be sometime on Wednesday -Thursday time frame.

 Much can change though.

 Consult the National Hurricane Center or best local source of Official Information . 

Here is a sample of some forecast tracks.

No comments:

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Isolated Large Rainfall Totals - Even a Strong Storm or Two Possible into Mid Evening

Weekend Starts out with Baby Blues and Pinks at Cocoa Beach Pier
TODAY: Very little change 'overall' in scheme of things from past two days. Atmospheric moisture on the KSC sounding came in a bit higher than expected, instability a  bit higher as well, with temperatures aloft a bit cooler even yet still and a convective temperature of only 87F (easily attainable today) with zero cap. 

All things consider if nothing else were to change since that 6AM sounding (which might be a big assumption) and that were to be representative of a fairly large area of Eastern Portions of Central toward South Central (even South) all things spell out then to thunderstorm coverage  pretty well written in for today for this area (mainly south of I-4 and along to east of  I75 toward I-95.

Storm motion on the other hand again is just barely above a drift toward the east at about 5-8 mph which would not overcome a stronger seabreeze. Regardless, once boundaries and outflows get set up from lake breezes and even smaller early day showers which tend to disrupt   weak low level wind  fields, today looks like another 'just about anything goes' type of day.

Even last evening storms went up along the East Central Coast while the east coast sea breeze itself was on the approach to the west coast (that is, well behind the east coast sea breeze). That has been the going fad the past 4 days in a row so will not stray from the pattern, not to say that the same will happen again today though despite that late evening storm fests of the past 4 evenings between the Cape south toward St Lucie County.  Will it be again? 

Otherwise, swell seems to be dying down just a bit from yesterday while the GFS of a few days ago showed the peak of the swell from Karl would be the weekend this does not appear to be the case based on the morning surf check. Either way, rip tides a situation to be of concern for beach goers over such a fine weekend for late September with highs in the lower 90Fs once again inland.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: These two days look like a variation of the same theme, though Sunday or both days might have a slight decrease in activity we'll just have to wait and see. Otherwise, a frontal boundary that has already cleared the Rockies is moving east but greatly impeded by high pressure to the east of it. Regardless, the upper level support will gain reinforcements allowing the system to find its way into the Deep South toward at least Central Georgia by Tuesday slowly but surely.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look like there could be an uptick in rain chances with again strong storms possible with colder air aloft and better westerly steering currents to the ENE-NE (toward the east coast).  Temperatures on these days might not get as warm as a result of increased cloud cover earlier in the day.

LONGER RANGE: Already eyes on next  tropical system if it comes about, to be Matthew. The GFS is spelling out Gloom and Doom (Cat 3 or 4) Hurricane making landfall somewhere between Louisiana to the Central  panhandle of Florida in several runs ; however, so far it's the 'out-liar' for the time being. Other guidance shows a system running into Mexico of much less strength. 

Regardless, the frontal boundary in question for the time being appears will be bridged over by high pressure aloft and wash out accompanied by a  "deepening  moisture  laden easterly enhanced flow" which could spell for rain chance increases along the east coast from JAX south to Brevard come latter portions of next week whence  what might be 'Matthew' by that time would still be well out in the far Eastern Caribbean at best. Much to watch for...and not necessarily that any of the just aforementioned will even materialize.

Regardless, some interesting weather changes or events might be in the stock pile for the pickins' in days ahead.

No comments:

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Thunderstorms Again Today through Week's End

Cocoa Beach Pier Tuesday Morning
TODAY-THURSDAY: So far we're on track since the previous post on Saturday which suspected higher rain chances for Monday and Tuesday (which was a big flip flop from previous outlooks).

Today is similar to yesterday with two key differences (at least).

1. Cape sounding came in with a CAP between 5000-10,000 feet with convective temperature in the lower 90Fs with a cap strength of 2 which is difficult to break. On the other hand..

2. The deepest moisture appears to be on the east side of the state.

What this means is that it is possible there will be, or could be, a later start of initiation along the far east side unlike yesterday where the big totals came in with the MLB Airport scoring big time. It might mean stronger wind gusts but then again on the flip side..hard for storms to get going. It'll be a matter of timing and locale..but will shoot from the hip and watch for the ever present chance of surprises.

One difference however, today, is that west coast activity has got an earlier start and it appears OFBs (Out-Flow Boundaries) might be on their way toward the Central north/south axis of the peninsula even as of 12:30pm.  Steering continues from west to east but is light and not strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. 

Outflow from western poofy showers might meet the east coast sea breeze somewhere near to west of I-95 in several hours from now so again highest rainfall totals for the day could come in somewhere in Western Brevard , Osceola, Volusia - South toward Martin County with another area over interior South Florida. Temperatures aloft are almost identical to yesterday.

WEDNESDAY: Again, a similar set up but inevitably variations in the theme will translate to potentially a big difference on where and when heaviest rain totals will add up. There are implications a mid level trough axis could slice NE to SW across and down the state which might add a convergence focus for tomorrow, however overall PWAT (Precipitable water) could lower if the GFS is correct. The NAM says, 'not so fast' and keeps the deep moisture in place. Tomorrow will be a new day so time will tell so best we can do is tell it like it 'T - I - S' when that time comes after today's atmospheric gala.

INTO THE WEEKEND; In general though the GFS brings a weak boundary at the surface through it's but barely a temporal wind shift that washes out the lowest level westerlies leaving the mid level winds from the west to WSW in place. Moisture goes up and down each day as temperatures aloft remain static. Overall, looks more like the 'summer that never' happened in the thunderstorm regime is having its day in court this week, possibly into the weekend.

No comments:

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Forecast Flip Flop For Monday - Wednesday From 'Dry' to 'Wet' ?"

Harvest Moon Setting Saturday Morning - Cape Canaveral
TODAY: "Julia's Memory' continues to spin seemingly on mere momentum generally  about 300NM east of JAX moving little since yesterday afternoon. All in all today appears to be somewhat similar to yesterday but with a greater focus on late day storm activity more toward the West up and down the state rather than only 'The South' -   some other storms might fire along the Lake Okeechobee Breeze earlier in the day (like yesterday). 


Emphasis on this period may well be largely contingent upon a combination of what occurs where there is a break in the Atlantic - Southern Plains ridge axis that has prevailed much of the summer. Latest NAM and to less of a degree , the GFS, imply there will be a break as an upper level trough traverses west to east further north and makes a bit of a tele-connection with 'The Julia Environment' east of Florida. 

Net affect is that as moisture remains over Florida or even increases into Monday through Tuesday  Julia or part of what remains 'appears' might become absorbed into that 'troughing' action over the  southeast Deep South, Florida in particular. 

If so, we could see vorticity (upper / mid level energy) across the state at random times which acts to increases rain chances when in combination with typical day time heating and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The GFS and NAM depict the 700mb temperatures might lower a few degrees which would make for earlier in the day shower/storm initiation and greater coverage overall.

 Both indicate, the NAM to much more of a degree and not trusted as the model output is showing 'significant rainfall totals', an increase in steering of activity toward the East Coast Monday and Tuesday, but both do show hints of this to occur in some form or fashion. 

The net result overall is increased chances of rain and thunder with two day rainfall totals from 1-3" possible if this will be the case as described (generally). Situation is worth monitoring if not for interest's sake or if planning out door activities either day. The pattern ends on Wednesday, perhaps as rain chances shift to the south half of the state.

Saturday Morning Facing West - Cape Canaveral Sunrise

BEYOND: Moisture from 'said set' up aforementioned shifts out to the east and dissipates per latest as what might be a named tropical system approaches from the east ...well east rather out in the Atlantic. Chances are if this system gets named it will lift out to the north well before ever reaching Florida.

No comments:

Friday, September 16, 2016

Showers-Storms Mainly Away From Coast - Highest Concentration South Central to South

Early Afternoon Thunderstorm Closes in on The Cape on Thursday
TODAY: Appears that what remains of a 'boundary' which focused most activity on Thursday across Central Florida might have shifted a bit south. As a result, greatest thunderstorm chances today might be over mostly South Central to parts of South Florida.

Steering less that 6 mph  means very slow storm motion. Temperatures aloft similar to yesterday as well. Overall not much change from yesterday other than where the greater potential concentration of storms will occur. Early evening storms might too be able to manifest more toward interior portions of Central as sea breezes from both coasts approach each other, but more toward the west side.

Swell from Julia moved in and coupled with a near autumnal full Harvest Moon the high tides running are much higher than normal as evidenced this morning with higher waves as well. Rip currents will be a hazard within a few hours of low tide or during the prime swimming times around noon to early afternoon.

WEEKEND: Really not much different than what has been advertised meaning mainly interior storms possible focusing more toward the Southern half to one third of state with temperatures similar to today and yesterday. Random showers could move ashore early evening through morning along the east coast mainly from the Cape and north any evening though outside of the day time driven activity but if so will be extremely isolated. 

BEYOND: The GFS has been attempting to hint that some energy could result in a "Julia Revisited' as a piece of vorticity breaks off and circulates around a ridge building across the Southern U.S. come early to mid next week while the remnant surface low becomes absorbed in the next trough in the mid levels to move east over top that ridge. Either way does not at time seem to make much of a difference in the sensible weather across Florida  other than that there might be a day come  Tuesday or Wednesday when rain showers will be more likely. Otherwise, increasingly obvious light , easterly flow commences and mainly rain-showers with possibly some thunder well inland to west side of state will be the norm much of next week (as it stands now).

No comments:

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Showers and Thunder Possible (Mainly Central)

Moderate to Heavy Rainfall Over Merritt Island Florida
Closing in On the Outer Most Barrier Islands of The CAPE on Wednesday

SYNOPSIS: Up front does not look to be as active today as yesterday. A boundary easily visible projecting from Julia lays nearly East/West along to just north of I-4  (see image below) and might drag a bit further south during the course of the day.  

Instability will be moderate today with precipitable water through the column at to over 2" yet still. KSC sounding revealed this moisture is rather evenly distributed through the column and not focusing in the low and mid levels which is not exactly supportive of strong storms. Most thunder today should manifest near this east/west  boundary somewhere near to mainly south of I-4 over the Interior and toward the East Coast late afternoon though earlier day activities from the east coast sea breeze may form, but mostly restricted to be rain showers until later today (but not exclusively).

Though thunder possible over the "Glade Regions' have omitted from this post due to low populace in that zone, hence low regard.

Yesterday's boundary interactions created for the better 'light shows' along Central Florida where a few SWS's were issued (Special Weather Statements). Rainfall varied varied from zero to just over 2" in the Rockledge- Canaveral Strip and down the outer barriers common with SW Flow aloft as was the case yesterday .

Temperatures aloft today are rather warm with 700mb coming in at nearly 11C which is quite warm (too stable?) with zero capping and a convective temperatures of easily reachable 87F. 500mb temperatures are not faring much better.   

Rainfalls today not expected (at this point) to be as high as yesterday but somewhere in Central Florida might wring out some high totals given the overall scheme of things, that at this point it does not look like a strong storm wording is warranted.

Steering from west to east is also much weaker today so it is questionable to the blogger if thunder (in Cloud to Ground form) will make it out to the barriers. Will give it the old college try and say, 'heck, let's go for it'..but not so sure about that. The mid level boundary on satellite imagery (as referred to above) is too alluring to deny that potential altogether.

At One Point Yesterday Storm Activity Did a Fine Job of Tracing the Coast
 BEYOND: Most rain-shower activity from Friday into Saturday and Sunday might be focused more toward Central and South Florida with areas north of I-4 remaining ' in question'  at least in regard to current projections.  

Rain chances really drop around Tuesday as onshore flow (easterlies) set up from the surface in the mid levels with spotty atmospheric moisture depths  meaning potential for coastal showers early through mid morning working inland during the day but thunder chances overall even during later in the day inland look a bit meager. But where those if any chances will be is too far gone to bother speculating.

SUPER DUPER BEYOND: Could the first cold front be on the approach late month? Would not be out of the question as the GFS and other guidance is showing signs of front to drop through sometimes between September 26 - October 1st.  Time and time again have seen the first front of the year between September 21st to October 1st. 

Fear not. Latest GFS shows temperatures will absolutely PLUMMET with this boundary if it makes it through to below even 70F before October 1. The ever true sign of fall's harbinger in Canaveral from my history here has been the elusive 67F on old mercury. From that time on..the gigs up, summer's over, and cooling bills begin to decrease.

No comments:

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Storms Possible Through Friday( Mid Afternoons into Early Evening )

Much of Forecast For Peninsular Florida will depend on the remaining
  'Breadth of Influence'  from Tropical Storm Julia

SYNOPSIS: As anticipated in previous post, thunderstorms and/or rain showers will be possible into the weekend. With time (especially Saturday and/or Sunday) most of the activities will be more toward the interior areas and then 'west side story' begins, but until that time it appears as of this morning enough of a southwest flow aloft through the 'mid-level's of the atmosphere will steer activity or propagate storms toward the east coast over time. Ample moisture is forecast per NAM/GFS Model Guidance to remain through Saturday but become a bit more sparse toward the Monday/Tuesday time frames. One of these days might be a bit more dry over all but with time a regime of isolated , early morning coastal showers propagating inland during the day  with dry afternoons east coast will resume in fashion of the season - vague, yet Vogue .

TODAY: With ample steering from the SW remaining even down to the lower levels one aspect to consider is if , when, and where an east coast sea breeze will be able to manifest. Weaker flow aloft permitting, a sea-breeze even remaining closer to the east coast should be able to form -- albeit even if a bit delayed-- at least as far north as Ft Pierce with more of a side shore component further north toward the tip of the Cape. Better convergence along that boundary initially could result in better upward forcing apart from regions washed out by any antecedent outflow boundaries from 'mere showers' and/or where high cloud cover might overcome low level instability as a result of cirrus already present or storm top anvil debris which should become prevalent the later in the day we go.

Better chances of perhaps a stronger storm are noted in above image and below .

This graphic depicts only as an example an AOI (Area of Interest) for later today given the SW Flow aloft and where the east coast sea breeze might be able to penetrate a bit further inland toward Lake Okeechobee region. It is not wholly exclusive of other areas that may well see a storm however.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Will take these days as they come, as so far as today appears at least somewhat representative of what these days will be like, apart from subtle variations as steering begins to weaken and east coast sea breeze thus can make better inland progression. 

Otherwise, moisture for all general purposes remains. One aspect for all days is that temperatures aloft will not be all that cold so any pulse stronger storm is going to have to wait for peak to post heating  hours coupled with low level convergence as a a result of two or more boundary intersections.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY; Activity for the most part will begin to focus more inland with a decrease of coverage most notable especially on Sunday as the low level Atlantic Ridge axis begins to take over and steering points more toward the interior and west side of the state.

BELOW: Some images from radar and satellite of the progressive manifestation of said named Storm Julia from it's more formidable points of contention, namely in the No Name period when storm force winds had already been and were being reporte. It might be noted that Tropical Storm category winds were observed , both sustained and in gusts, prior to the Official Designation by Ship Reports for at least 3 hours as the No Name crept northward. All the better for naught , however. No need for a tizzy.

Soon to be Julia moves ashore near Vero Beach at 3AM.
Near Melbourne , FL 

  Soon to be Julia Centered near The Fish Camp in West Cocoa

 At this point in time of radar image winds had already gusted in parts of Brevard near the beaches and per observation towers in North Brevard to near Tropical Storm strength (in gusts) Not long after Sustained TS winds were reported offshore Daytona with gusts of the same in parts of North Volusia toward Ormond Beach areas in and near heavier rain activities

At this time I believe we had Julia at hand though not officially designated as such.

No comments: