"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Storms Possible Through Friday( Mid Afternoons into Early Evening )

Much of Forecast For Peninsular Florida will depend on the remaining
  'Breadth of Influence'  from Tropical Storm Julia

SYNOPSIS: As anticipated in previous post, thunderstorms and/or rain showers will be possible into the weekend. With time (especially Saturday and/or Sunday) most of the activities will be more toward the interior areas and then 'west side story' begins, but until that time it appears as of this morning enough of a southwest flow aloft through the 'mid-level's of the atmosphere will steer activity or propagate storms toward the east coast over time. Ample moisture is forecast per NAM/GFS Model Guidance to remain through Saturday but become a bit more sparse toward the Monday/Tuesday time frames. One of these days might be a bit more dry over all but with time a regime of isolated , early morning coastal showers propagating inland during the day  with dry afternoons east coast will resume in fashion of the season - vague, yet Vogue .

TODAY: With ample steering from the SW remaining even down to the lower levels one aspect to consider is if , when, and where an east coast sea breeze will be able to manifest. Weaker flow aloft permitting, a sea-breeze even remaining closer to the east coast should be able to form -- albeit even if a bit delayed-- at least as far north as Ft Pierce with more of a side shore component further north toward the tip of the Cape. Better convergence along that boundary initially could result in better upward forcing apart from regions washed out by any antecedent outflow boundaries from 'mere showers' and/or where high cloud cover might overcome low level instability as a result of cirrus already present or storm top anvil debris which should become prevalent the later in the day we go.

Better chances of perhaps a stronger storm are noted in above image and below .

This graphic depicts only as an example an AOI (Area of Interest) for later today given the SW Flow aloft and where the east coast sea breeze might be able to penetrate a bit further inland toward Lake Okeechobee region. It is not wholly exclusive of other areas that may well see a storm however.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Will take these days as they come, as so far as today appears at least somewhat representative of what these days will be like, apart from subtle variations as steering begins to weaken and east coast sea breeze thus can make better inland progression. 

Otherwise, moisture for all general purposes remains. One aspect for all days is that temperatures aloft will not be all that cold so any pulse stronger storm is going to have to wait for peak to post heating  hours coupled with low level convergence as a a result of two or more boundary intersections.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY; Activity for the most part will begin to focus more inland with a decrease of coverage most notable especially on Sunday as the low level Atlantic Ridge axis begins to take over and steering points more toward the interior and west side of the state.

BELOW: Some images from radar and satellite of the progressive manifestation of said named Storm Julia from it's more formidable points of contention, namely in the No Name period when storm force winds had already been and were being reporte. It might be noted that Tropical Storm category winds were observed , both sustained and in gusts, prior to the Official Designation by Ship Reports for at least 3 hours as the No Name crept northward. All the better for naught , however. No need for a tizzy.

Soon to be Julia moves ashore near Vero Beach at 3AM.
Near Melbourne , FL 

  Soon to be Julia Centered near The Fish Camp in West Cocoa

 At this point in time of radar image winds had already gusted in parts of Brevard near the beaches and per observation towers in North Brevard to near Tropical Storm strength (in gusts) Not long after Sustained TS winds were reported offshore Daytona with gusts of the same in parts of North Volusia toward Ormond Beach areas in and near heavier rain activities

At this time I believe we had Julia at hand though not officially designated as such.

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