|"Storm Off Cape Canaveral Saturday"|
TODAY: Very brief post today as from the blogger's perspective virtually every model seems to be off in some way or another. Additionally, could not see the latest KSC sounding which is now DAYS OLD to the general public to verify if they initialized very well, but can only presume that did. Regardless, satellite imagery and current radar trends are not matching well with the latest RAP or GFS model, and as a result the Local Mesoscale Analysis Page from SPC isn't panning out too well either. The LDIS (Local Data Integration System) from MLB seems to be handling the overall situation much better as far as the way satellite interpretation at least appears.
Today's post is based on latest current events and how the GFS was trending the past several days for how today will work out. It's a mere rough guestimate without trying to get into the nicks and crannies esp. retarding South Florida
That being written, isolated storms or showers to progress eastward along the west coast sea breeze front. East coast sea breeze to form mainly from the Cape south if not the coast of Volusian..and progress inland to around I-95 if not further than that south of Sebastian Inlet.
Suspect that area might be where the strongest of activity occurs (IN GENERAL) but other activity might occur further south around the Big Lake Okeechobee as well. Temperatures aloft are likely the same as they have been and the atmosphere is a bit drier which could result in strong wind gusts late day..where a storm can form as a result of two if not three or more boundary collisions.
A solid funnel if not tornado was observed and video taken of one west of Boca location yesterday despite that the typical textbook 'tornadic environment' was not present. BUt that's Florida in the summer for you. Just because something is in a text book doesn't always make it exclusively right.
Perhaps more of a 'landspout' tornado, but either way makes no difference. If today ends up being anything like yesterday after 3 or 4PM we might see some funnels near to off shore, though no one is calling for it.
BEYOND: Is the main Florida thunderstorm season calling it quits or on summer vacation? Time will tell, but the trend has been for a marked overall decrease in storm activity as high pressure forms over parts of Dixie putting Florida on the descending circulation side coupled with a less moist airmass.
After which, a deep easterly flow might ensure which would favor the west side of the state, though moisture is shown to be lacking even then compared to what we've had.
TIme will tell, but it might be quite some time until we see the normal summer coverage of activity again, such as at least 10 days, and by then we'll nearly be in September and be able to see the end of the 'thunderstorm season' pot of gold at the other end of the rainbow.