"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Fairwell Warm Weather Friend...Parting is not Sweet Sorrow

5PM EST Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model depiction of surface cold front for today in its last model run
This front will approach from the west with a fairly rare but steadfast north/south orientation, making only slow progress into most of Monday as the supporting mid-level low only recently becoming apparent forms in the yellow area for descriptive purposes.  In Green is where the best chance of measurable rainfall with the front itself seems the most probable as of this time, with the area in orange a thunderstorm area to be honed in on for future reference but in no way definitive at this stake.   

TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY: Very little change from what we are seeing over Central and South Florida as winds continue from the ESE-SE at 10-20mph with higher gusts at points in time almost anywhere depending on the daytime heating and any manifestation of nearby low topped sprinkling showers which dictate near by conditions (a few stronger gusts/slightly cooler due to cloud cover) - of which will be few and far between.  

Animation of early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that most areas other than toward NE and SE Florida will see more sun than clouds, although this could change come   lower sun angle time of day , but not of significant due cause. Otherwise, temperatures running in the 70Fs with some lower 80Fs away from the east coast north of Ft. Pierce and toward the west of I-95.

By noon Monday, the cold front should be approaching if not nearly on the west coast of Florida, with winds becoming more southerly at 10-20mph with similar if not slightly warmer highs along  a low" 80Fs more common" thread. Showers and possible thunder over the Panhandle toward Tampa with time, possibly as far south as Sarasota and eventually Punta Gorda west coast, with a few showers possible east side south of Daytona as the afternoon wears on, but those would not be related to the approaching boundary on the west side.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cold front, due to its orientation as shown above, will clear from west to east   along a common longitude, passing  or clearing for example I-95 within nearly the same hour from Daytona Beach to Miami..which per the latest NAM, GFS, and ECMWF (yes, the models have finally reached near mutual concession to agree)...around 7:30-9PM Monday evening. Best rain chances as indicated above as well, but most anywhere not shown here could receive showers as well. The least likely area appears to be SE Florida the rain realm...but we can't know definitively until some rough spots in information get ironed out. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: To skip back to the previous paragraph, it could be that the precipitation to occur from west to east Monday afternoon through mid evening will actually be along 'PRE'-frontal boundary, with the true front yet to cross the state a day later. In either case, it does not seem to have an effect on sensible weather, only wind direction. 

West Winds after the trough presses to the east of one's location with rain chances quickly dwindling and over by sunrise Tuesday. Much cooler air could come in two phases but the sum total of both would be mainly to re-inforce the initial surge neither taking away from, or adding to, the numbers. 

Lows interior to south Florida in the mid-upper 40Fs, and upper 40Fs to just a tick above 50F far east side. Colder all areas north of I-4. Afternoon highs warmer than the cold previously  feared (but not surprised of this) on all days into the mid-upper 60Fs to low 70Fs south with westerly winds ticking clockwise toward NW on Thursday with time.

FRIDAY/BEYOND: Preliminary. Somewhere in the scheme of things heading toward next weekend another front will be making an appearance. Ironically, this cold front could come in the back door, from the North to NNE as opposed to our incomer from the west on Monday. Ironic because it is behind this front that conditions actually warm due to the wind becoming N-NNE-NE behind it. More implicitly, cold air will be modified as it blows across warmer ocean waters with a net result of a return to the old "stratocumulus clouds, warmer overnight coastal lows, and comfortable afternoons in the 70Fs with the ever-present chance of sprinkles of maybe showers somewhere along the line"...too soon to say.

CONCLUDING THIS POST: It continues to look like it will be much cooler to almost cold Tuesday through at least Thursday morning, and probably Friday's as well...with temperatures running below normal. This expectation in and of itself would not be of much perceived impact t'were it mid-winter, but we have been running above normal for quite a while, so these colder temperatures brought forth with a period of some winds in the 10-20+ mph will add the wind chill factor in. Cannot recall  the last time that was even of concern. Looks like the A/C can go for a while...but what of the heat? Individual preference , "You Be The Judge".    

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