"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Cold front Overnight To Have Near Zero Influence Temperature/Rain Wise

Frontal Boundary as noted above will enter Central zones tonight. The boundary will grow increasingly diffuse and broaden during it's passage; perhaps a few rains could fall near the coast from the Cape and North, but all in all this of no nor should be a concern tonight south of I-4
TODAY: Off and on clouds today and mild temperatures with highs held a tad at bay due to cloud coverage with highs in the low to mid 70Fs and light to near calm winds. The front will grow broader with impacts weakening as it proceeds eastward tonight. So slow will be the passage that high pressure to the west will be quickly on its heels to the north with weak onshore flow ensuing right to or nearly so after passage keeping temperatures moderate as opposed to those stiff NW winds experienced during those visits from Jack Frost.

BEYOND: Hardly is there yet another front to be seen in regard to Florida for nearly a week beyond today, and even so, that front has been shown to have not much more than potentially a one day temperature impact if even.  Wind will be NE-ENE becoming easterly with time with 24 hour temperature variations east of I-95 and especially along A1A quite minimal hovering around the 67F - 73F zone. Inland temperatures will fall more over night, and warm more during the day away from the now cooling ocean waters. Off and on clouds appear will be in the cards as opposed to absolutely clear skies, but that too could change for the improvement. No rain foreseen otherwise...although some minor cooling could occur as a result of upper level height falls, minus an actual frontal boundary.

GREATER BEYOND: Yet still, projection has been for no 'big sig' cool downs to mid December. Granted, that is much too far off to hold fast on to in confidence; but nonetheless, has been shown 4 times out of 6 to be the trend in the long range GFS model runs for several days now. 

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Saturday, November 24, 2012

Potential For Warmer Days Ahead Next Week, Beyond

A few consecutive model runs are showing the low level heating from Mexico to Extreme SW Texas will elevate to the 'mid levels' in the next 5 days and then translate ENE ward mid week next week
resulting in 'temperturally inverted' cold frontal passages. This image is for the 850mb height, or around 5000 feet AGL (above ground level)
Note the effect of a light west to near calm wind east of the intracoastal waterways at Patrick AFB.

This is likely the case up and down the east coast from Cape Canaveral to the Keys. Note it is cooler in West Kendall than at PAFB. This is not unusual.

PATRICK AFB CLEAR 55  (note effect east of the rivers)
HOMESTEAD      CLEAR     54    
PUNTA GORDA    CLEAR     49   
FT MYERS       CLEAR     51   SOUTHWEST INTL CLEAR     48   

TODAY-SUNDAY: Continued very pleasant with slightly below normal temperatures, light winds. A frontal passage will occur today during the mid-afternoon, possibly with some clouds, but all in all the effect will be to infiltrate cooler air into the Panhandle and eventually toward the West side of the state by Sunday morning, where it could be the coolest morning yet for those areas.  Again, the warmest zones should be along the immediate east coast from the Cape and southward, with little change from those of this morning's readings.
Car Wash Mural, Cocoa Beach, Florida

BEYOND: Meanwhile, per guidance trends, heights in the mid levels will, if all goes according to plan, will be rising in response to heating over Mexico and into extreme SW Texas (at the lower levels). As each consecutive frontal/trough progresses across the country's mid section this warm air will be pulled east ward.

The net effect is that although we could still see some rain or increased cloud coverage on Tuesday afternoon (rain so far most likely to occur over the South Half of the state from the Cape toward South Tampa Bay and South toward Lake 'Okeebee', the NW winds to follow will actually be warmer BEHIND the front than the will be with the west winds before the front passes Tuesday morning.  Another front is then expected to follow several days beyond Tuesday with the same effect. In that regard, 'temperaturally inverted' cold fronts, or rather, cold fronts acting almost as loosely phrased, 'warm fronts' by virtue that they will be harboring in warmer air from Mexico seems to be the trend.

In Summary, the coldest days after Sunday and Monday morning from a state wide perspective should be ending, with highs returning to normal to slightly above normal in a few locations being possible during the first week of December. No big frontal passages so far are foreseen will out to 12 days.

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Thursday, November 22, 2012

Happy Giving Thanks Day, Pleasantly Cool Continues

Although not exactly correct as of this typing, we can see how by in large the cooler temperatures are filtering toward the west side of the state toward SW Florida this morning. This is a very typical cool to cold weather pattern in drainage flow like scenarios. This will again repeat going into early next week
HAPPY THANKSGIVING: Cool today through Saturday with highs potentially in the lower 70Fs, but even so, those readings will be for only a relatively brief period with the predominant range in the mid to upper 60Fs with northerly winds, most breezy during thermal mixing hours of 1 - 4pm along open areas, especially near water ways. Otherwise, skies clear to scattered stratocumulus crumbs.

FRIDAY- SATURDAY: Very little change with over night lows warmest along A1A from the Cape and South toward the Keys.  A front is in the making to pass through on Saturday afternoon, and rain chances look best in association with that boundary across Central and South Central Florida, mainly south of I-4 and north of Lake Okeechobee. Warmer on Tuesday prior to frontal passage, but that will be it for many days to come before another front again approaches repeating the same cycle we are currently endowed with.

Ocean temperatures are cooling more and more, thanks possibly due to repeated low pressure systems forming well to the east of the state and drawing NNE flow on their west sides with counterclockwise circulations around them along the U.S. East coast southward...evoking the cooler waters to work as far south as Volusia County especially. This could put a crimp in our style for folks in North Brevard northward near the coast especially later into the winter and early spring in regard to afternoon high temperatures when north to northeast winds are present as waters take longer to warm in responding to ambient outside air temperatures.

  COCOA BEACH ART FESTIVAL THIS WEEKEND: Cool with a northerly type breeze, mostly sunny and highs in the upper 60Fs to near 72F.

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Wednesday, November 21, 2012

On The Cool Side, Becoming a Bit Cooler By Sunday

What appears might be a 700mb trough swinging through Central Florida today will reinforce the conditions that are already in place. Namely, breezy N - NNW winds. Note it is mostly clear across much of the state
TODAY: Rather cool and breezy, especially near waterways with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, some mid 70Fs possible mainly South 1/2

THANKSGIVING: Very similar to today, with perhaps some clouds near the coast but otherwise quite pleasant.

BEYOND: Not many changes foreseen in quite sometime as another boundary presses down the state around Saturday into Sunday. Cool mornings in the upper 40Fs with that passage toward SW Florida with the warmest spots in the state from Canaveral south to the Keys right along A1A and then toward US1 from Broward County and South.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN?: Perhaps middle of NEXT Week, but even if so, only a small chance. Only the time frame around next Tuesday appears to show any true warming, to last only about a day before another front comes through. Otherwise, before that time coastal over night lows will remain warmest near the beaches as winds become more easterly to ESE come around Tuesday or so.

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Monday, November 19, 2012

Continued Cool Into Next Week, Thanksgiving Special

Low pressure to the east of Florida shown. Guidance shows it to be moving toward the ENE-NE today, yet that is not the motion it is taking as noted in the red arrows. Cool air coming off the warmer Gulf Stream water is likely contributing to the very shallow cloud deck of low cloud heights (and bases), keeping out sunshine today. 

TODAY -TUESDAY: Continued cloudy in most areas as indicated by the above image. THe clouds could work a bit further south, but I do not have much hopes in them breaking up before dark, IF even by tomorrow. There could be clearing later this evening, but whether or not they will remain tomorrow is bit up in the air. Best hope is cleared by morning, but indications are this might hold off until later to mid afternoon. Fingers crossed because other wise it will be cool with highs under the clouds in the low 60Fs and some upper 50Fs, much warmer in the sunshine.

WEDNESDAY: The low will be moving well away by this time so would anticipate that skies will improve; temperatures not so much so with continuing North to NNW flow developing with the shortest days of the year approaching from the 21st November through 21 January.

THANKSGIVING:  In that regard, Thanksgiving will have light winds unless there is full sunshine, at which point mixing will stir the pot up a bit. Open windows on This Day of Thanks Commemorating Arrival at the new "Promised Land" with the locals as recognized as the First Supper with the Lord should be nice. 

The First Thanksgiving

1. The First Thanksgiving Proclamation (June 20, 1676)
2. Understanding Thanksgiving
3. Congressional Record, September 25, 1789
5. Abraham Lincoln (October 3, 1863, passed by an Act of Congress.)

The Pilgrims were Separatists, America’s Calvinist Protestants, who rejected the institutional Church of England. They believed that the worship of God must originate in the inner man, and that corporate forms of worship prescribed by man i
nterfered with the establishment of a true relationship with God. The Separatists used the term “church” to refer to the people, the Body of Christ, not to a building or institution. As their Pastor John Robinson said, “[When two or three are] gathered in the name of Christ by a covenant made to walk in all the way of God known unto them as a church .”

THE FIRST THANKSGIVING PROCLAMATION – JUNE 20, 1676: “The Holy God having by a long and Continual Series of his Afflictive dispensations in and by the present War with the Heathen Natives of this land, written and brought to pass bitter things against his own Covenant people in this wilderness, yet so that we evidently discern that in the midst of his judgments he hath remembered mercy, having remembered his Footstool in the day of his sore displeasure against us for our sins, with many singular Intimations of his Fatherly Compassion, and regard; reserving many of our Towns from Desolation Threatened, and attempted by the Enemy, and giving us especially of late with many of our Confederates many signal Advantages against them, without such Disadvantage to ourselves as formerly we have been sensible of, if it be the Lord’s mercy that we are not consumed, It certainly bespeaks our positive Thankfulness, when our Enemies are in any measure disappointed or destroyed; and fearing the Lord should take notice under so many Intimations of his returning mercy, we should be found an Insensible people, as not standing before Him with thanksgiving, as well as lading him with our Complaints in the time of pressing Afflictions.”


The First Thanksgiving Proclamation (June 20, 1676)

On June 20, 1676, the governing council of Charlestown, Massachusetts, held a meeting to determine how best to express thanks for the good fortune that had seen their community securely established. By unanimous vote they instructed Edward Rawson, the clerk, to proclaim June 29 as a day of thanksgiving, our first.


Understanding Thanksgiving

The celebration we now popularly regard as the “First Thanksgiving” was the Pilgrims’ three-day feast celebrated in early November of 1621 (although a day of thanks in America was observed in Virginia at Cape Henry in 1607). The first Thanksgiving to God in the Calvinist tradition in Plymouth Colony was actually celebrated during the summer of 1623, when the colonists declared a Thanksgiving holiday after their crops were saved by much-needed rainfall.

The Pilgrims left Plymouth, England, on September 6, 1620, sailing for a new world that offered the promise of both civil and religious liberty. The Pilgrims had earlier left England in 1608, as the Church of England had curtailed their freedom to worship according to their individual consciences.

The Pilgrims had settled in Holland for twelve years, where they found spiritual liberty in the midst of a disjointed economy (which failed to provide adequate compensation for their labors) and a dissolute, degraded, corrupt culture (which tempted their children to stray from faith). For almost three months, 102 seafarers braved harsh elements to arrive off the coast of what is now Massachusetts, in late November of 1620. 

On December 11, prior to disembarking at Plymouth Rock, they signed the “Mayflower Compact,” America’s original document of civil government and the first to introduce self-government. While still anchored at Provincetown harbor, their Pastor John Robinson counseled, “You are become a body politic … and are to have only them for your… governors which yourselves shall make choice of.”

Upon landing in America, the Pilgrims conducted a prayer service, then quickly turned to building shelters. Starvation and sickness during the ensuing New England winter killed almost half their population, but through prayer and hard work, with the assistance of their Indian friends, the Pilgrims reaped a rich harvest in the summer of 1621. Most of what we know about the Pilgrim Thanksgiving of 1621 comes from original accounts of the young colony’s leaders, Governor William Bradford and Master Edward Winslow, in their own hand.
 “They begane now to gather in ye small harvest they had, and to fitte up their houses and dwellings against winter, being well recovered in health & strenght, and had all things in good plenty; for some were thus imployed in affairs abroad, others were excersised in fishing, aboute codd, & bass, & other fish, of which yey tooke good store, of which every family had their portion. All ye somer ther was no wante. And now begane to come in store of foule, as winter aproached, of which this place did abound when they came first (but afterward decreased by degree). And besids water foule, ther was great store of wild Turkies, of which they took many, besids venison, &c. Besids they had aboute a peck a meale a weeke to a person, or now since harvest, Indean corne to yt proportion. Which made many afterwards write so largly of their plenty hear to their freinds in England, which were not fained, but true reports.”    -   W.B. (William Bradford)

“Our Corne did proue well, & God be praysed, we had a good increase of Indian Corne, and our Barly indifferent good, but our Pease not worth the gathering, for we feared they were too late sowne, they came vp very well, and blossomed, but the Sunne parched them in the blossome; our harvest being gotten in, our Governour sent foure men on fowling, that so we might after a more speciall manner reioyce together, after we had gathered the fruit of our labors; they foure in one day killed as much fowle, as with a little helpe beside, served the Company almost a weeke, at which time amongst other Recreations, we exercised our Armes, many of the Indians coming amongst vs, and among the rest their greatest King Massasoyt, with some nintie men, whom for three dayes we entertained and feasted, and they went out and killed fiue Deere, which they brought to the Plantation and bestowed upon our Governour, and upon the Captaine, and others. And although it be not alwayes so plentifull, as it was at this time with vs, yet by the goodneses of God, we are so farre from want, that we often wish you partakers of our plenty.”
     -    E.W. (Edward Winslow) Plymouth, in New England, this 11th of December, 1621.

The feast included foods suitable for a head table of honored guests, such as the chief men of the colony and Native leaders Massasoit (“Great Leader” also known as Ousamequin “Yellow Feather”), the sachem (chief) of Pokanoket (Pokanoket is the area at the head of Narragansett Bay). Venison, wild fowl, turkeys and Indian corn were the staples of the meal, which likely also included other food items known to have been aboard the Mayflower or available in Plymouth, such as spices, Dutch cheese, wild grapes, lobster, cod, native melons, pumpkin (pompion) and rabbit.

By the mid-17th century, the custom of autumnal Thanksgivings was established throughout New England. Observance of Thanksgiving Festivals began to spread southward during the American Revolution, as the newly established Congress officially recognized the need to celebrate this holy day.

The first Thanksgiving Proclamation was issued by the revolutionary
Continental Congress on November 1, 1777. Authored by Samuel Adams, it was one sentence of 360 words, which read in part:

 “Forasmuch as it is the indispensable duty of all men to adore the superintending providence of Almighty God; to acknowledge with gratitude their obligation to him for benefits received…together with penitent confession of their sins, whereby they had forfeited every favor; and their humble and earnest supplications that it may please God through the merits of Jesus Christ, mercifully to forgive and blot them out of remembrance…it is therefore recommended…to set apart Thursday the eighteenth day of December next, for solemn thanksgiving and praise, that with one heart and one voice the good people may express the grateful feeling of their hearts and consecrate themselves to the service of their Divine Benefactor…acknowledging with gratitude their obligations to Him for benefits received….To prosper the means of religion, for the promotion and enlargement of that kingdom which consisteth ‘in righteousness, peace and joy in the Holy Ghost’.”

It was one-hundred and eighty years after the first day of thanksgiving in America, that our Founding Fathers officially recognized the day by proclamation of the Constitutional government

Roosevelt’s inclination to subsume Thanksgiving for commercial interests foretold much of the secular inversion of “thanksgiving” to come. 

In autumns we now exist amid the oppression of crass materialism in advance of that December day when we give thanks for the birth of Christ, oppression vastly different but somehow remarkably similar to that experienced by our Pilgrim forefathers in England. ANd thus too is it so, Christmas has joined the ranks of the material world yet not insofar as the hearts of Rightmindedness. .

 And, at all times we move amid the seduction of cultural decadence in our everyday lives, again remarkably similar to that tempting our Pilgrim forebears and their families in Holland. Nevertheless, for all the decay and dissolution assailing us, we are still at our core, a nation deeply blessed by God.

"To prosper the means of religion, for the promotion and enlargement of that kingdom which consisteth ‘in righteousness, peace and joy in the Holy Ghost’.”

In God We Trusted.

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