"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Strong to Near Severe Storms (?) Monday, Active thru Wednesday/Unsettled Through Saturday

TODAY: Clouds with Sprinkles East Central toward the NW,
thunder possible west coast late
TODAY: Onshore flow continues becoming more ESE-SE-S into Monday. Although cloud cover exists mainly over Brevard County and inland a way, most of the state as can be seen from this above image remains quite pleasant. This was much the case as well on Saturday. Other than some sprinkles, not much going on today with a good breeze along the east coast which might sustain itself going into the over night for a time toward dark and onward along the Barriers.  Chance of thunder focus toward Tampa Bay late today and early this evening, with another shot possible up toward I-10 east of Tallahassee.

MONDAY: Flow becomes more southerly as Southern Branch jet right entrance region nose points toward Florida. Temperatures aloft quite unusually cold, although winds not strong aloft. Instability and lighter surface winds allowing for low level convergence and ample reactive outflow Lake and sea coupled with outflow from early day activity north Florida as well as over South Florida boundaries could result in some strong to near severe thunderstorms namely from marginally strong winds and/or hail, most likely in from the coasts toward Orange/Seminole, Western Volusia, and maybe interior north Osceola County. Activity could be strong as well, but if outflows come into play, it might end up being Central toward to after dark that gets the strongest storms. Activity could run late and into the post sunset hours and migrate off the east coast mainly from South Brevard  and north.

MONDAY image from the GFS. The NAM model is showing a more imposing proposition for
Monday over Northern Orange and western Volusia working toward most of Volusia and the north 1/2 of Brevard though. The GFS is more generalized, but thunder and/or rainshower chances are a pretty good bet most anywhere on Monday through late evening as they drift off the east coast.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance currently indicates a 'bubble low' could form over South Central on Monday into Tuesday and move off the east coast by Tuesday night. Before then, another shot at strong thunder on Tuesday contingent on cloud cover. Activity could get started before noon time, with the best shot on Wednesday for any stronger activity appearing to be over parts of South Florida while rain showers and some thunder could still occur many other locations. Could also otherwise be cloudy. That is dependant on if that low does form placing North and Central in a more northerly wind flow, albeit temporary for about 24 hours.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Upper level low will be cutting off for a time somewhere around the Mississippi or Ohio River Valleys region resulting in more rains in those locations. Expect we might be hearing about river flooding downstream. The impact to Florida remains a bit uncertain, but it seems that at least the chance for stronger storms might have waned by then with cloud cover and or some rain showers in the calling, but exactly when, where, why, and how is still up for grabs as models , even since that last post a few days ago, remain in disagreement on where any cut off mid-upper low might form and how long it will last. One or two model runs even show no cut off at all, thus the forecast for really ALL OF NEXT WEEK is highly variable and quite open to reconstruction at any point in time. Just a heads up when or if watching weather on TV. At this point, the last chance for rain appears to be along the east coast south of I-4 later on Saturday.

BEYOND: If the low does close off, another impulse could approach the state in the good westerly flow aloft around Tuesday or Wednesday of the following week. Much remains highly (expressively so) uncertain.
The threat of much colder air temperatures on the ground though seems to have diminished from the previous GFS runs as suspected might end up being the case, although we could still see a good spread of 50Fs around Sunday morning.  Again, the latest GFS continues to show the cut off forming, with another impulse to form somewhere toward South Texas and head toward Florida the following 48-72 hours...which means nearly 9-10 days from today. How likely?...hard to say.

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