TODAY: Two cold front boundaries will be playing havoc with the Florida Peninsula weather forecasts through Sunday beginning today. Although today does not appear 'sticky' regarding significant weather (especially South of the Beach Line), the main factor within this same area (North Half of State) looks to be the variability of cloud coverage with a better rain chance north of I-4. As noted in the caption , sea breeze convergence or simply a sea breeze and weak inland winds could result in weak convergence (surface to mid-levels) resulting in some sprinkles which looks only minimally possible if at all namely due to the cool waters and the cool air just above them cutting off the lifting currents normally present in the summer months when waters are much warmer.
FRIDAY: The cold front will get an extra boost southward after wafting toward the east, with the main energy being pulled well north and east of the state. Regardless, the front should be entering North Central (Ocala / Gainesville) area during the noon time hours and finally reaching Central Beach Line Corridor toward Tampa by late afternoon during and after peak heating hours. Wind fields do not look overly impressive; albeit, if this was the summer with the same wind fields this would be a day to watch for very strong thunderstorms no-doubt. Regardless, given the wind fields and ample instability, there could easily be a thunderstorm chance with good winds in them from northern parts of South Central and Northward. As we can see here:
SATURDAY: More interesting chain-of-events unfolds. First time in months since we've seen a scenario such as this. In fact, outside of the tropically related entities of fall, it was possibly last April or May that such a boundary could generate severe weather in a broad scale, or have that inkling, over a part of Florida. Thus, this will be a day to keep the ears and eyes pealed for statements and newscasts.
The cold front of old will lift northward as a warm front (as shown below), with an attendant low pressure system pulling eastward north of the state. A new cold front will be entering the picture with much stronger wind fields associated at ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
Given directional wind shear in a clockwise fashion from the ground and up toward 30,000 ft (climbing upward through the veering wind fields with height), there will be a best chance for severe storms and possibly a tornado from near St. Augustine as far south as Ormond Beach (at least) and west across the state. This entire scenario is still 'in the making' as far as being depicted on paper is concerned, so most assuredly this portion of the post will need further refinement in the next 36-48 hours as time allows. Here is the morning depiction for 7AM Sunday morning.
|NOTE the stronger wind fields even at the ground (as shown) as opposed to Friday. Blues show winds in the 25 kts range over water, as opposed to 10 kts on Friday. No joke, winds aloft are much stronger|
on Sunday than they will be on Friday as well.
Since it is yet early for finer details, it is worth watching for a fast moving squall line type feature to race across most of the peninsula from mid-morning through late afternoon. Precipitation totals are not shown to be high, but bear in mind it will be fast moving which correlates to little time for rainfall totals to add up. Meaning, not much rain does not directly mean some stronger winds will not be briefly possible.
Regardless, that does not mean, nor should we assume, that strong winds (at least) will not be possible, especially North of Lake Okeechobee mainly, not to play any 'favors' just yet in regard to who might escape the rains. As seen today at this point from scanning over a few resouces, most everyone could get a quick dose of rain and wind on Sunday from before sunrise (far north) to the keys by late afternoon/early evening.
BEYOND: It will be much cooler Monday morning behind the front, but not as cold as this prior event. Winds are expected to clock around toward the NE to east within 36-48 hours after frontal passage which means already any cold air supply will be tainted by Atlantic winds. Additionally, the jet stream will be north of the entire state. That is important to Florida since the coldest temperature at ground level in most cases is found under and north of it's flow and ebb around the hemispheres.