"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 22, 2013

Strong Storms Again Possible Today, Mainly after 5PM

  Severe Thunderstorm Munches I95
"Dinner Time"

RECAP: Not much change in forecast reasoning. As can be seen by peeking outside, early day cloud coverage is no longer an issue as was anticipated might by the case in future days per yesterday's post. Plentiful heating, steering toward the east or perhaps even ESE with deep layer mean (DLM) ridge axis (stacked ridge axis' through most atmospheric levels) well to the South shouldn't be too strong to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming by early afternoon some time but also remain only within about 1-8 miles of the east coast south of the Cape Canaveral area. Further north, the sea breeze if it can form at all will remain much closer to the coast.   Suspect that yesterday some early afternoon showers that went out to sea resulted in a bit of a mock sea breeze due to outflows from them that forced the sea breeze front inland toward the Orlando area. This 'could' occur again today if earlier showers near the coast form, but that will be strictly a matter of chance.  (Other shower outflows occurred across eastern portions of South Central to South Florida yesterday as storms propagated into the Palm Beach county area.) As 6pm "Magic" approached these boundaries weakened and possibly 'retreated coincident with falling Lifted condensation levels (LCLS) which added in rapid storm strengthening and propagation of the inland storm motions fairly rapidly toward the east coast resulting in a 'storm fest' from Brevard south to Palm Beach County.

Severe Storm with Very Heavy Rain, Strong Wind Gusts at I95 and 524
"Breaking the Sound Barrier"

TODAY: Activity already underway North Florida working east. Upper level winds could bring cause to believe that outflow boundaries from said activity could propagate east and south which would affect overall storm motions early afternoon and into the rest of the day like falling dominoes. Exactly where the heaviest activity will occur is difficult to say, but the shorter range High Resolution Model seems to  be honing in on similar areas as yesterday. Wind gusts particularly from Central Brevard and South toward the coast could be 'near severe' due to stronger downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) noted on the mesoscale depictions. Tiny hail is also possible in the core of the heaviest downpours for a brief time, mainly after the 4:30PM time frame. Beware of the lightning, even if rain has yet to fall. Some strikes yesterday well preceded actual rainfall by 5-10 minutes.

"Escape From Osceola"

TUESDAY: Although the theme remains the same, deepening of the trough down the east coast mentioned in previous post might greatly delay if not altogether prevent the east coast sea breeze and greatly limit storm potential except perhaps south of the Vero area, but this will not be known with greater certainty until tomorrow morning (at least). Otherwise, it will much warmer toward the east coast for a longer duration of the day.

BEYOND: Otherwise, variations of the same theme continue as steering weakens, but continuance of sea breeze convergence, slower steering and apparently some 'dry slots' impinging in the west to east mid-level steering winds in future days will limit if not prohibit storm formation entirely in certain areas while others will receive the lightning barrages. Those areas though remain uncertain on a daily basis. With that stated (as that is what guidance is showing), such activity might well remain prevalent into the first week of August with no tropical threats sowing/showing up close to home.

"I - 95 TIDAL WAVE !!"

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