Above photo: shown is a storm chaser's car somewhere near Trinidad, NM
"sitch" - situation, like the syoptic sitch is heavy duty we might be in for a major storm
"siggy" - significant, like there's a 'siggy' chance of tors today
"tors" - tornadoes
"The sitch is bad, there's a siggy chance of tors today. Could be baseballs and flangs too."
Things are progressing as expected from the meteorological side of life. I think the other side of my life is less predictable than the weather. But here's the "sitch". A front lies NNE-SSW bisecting the Florida Panhandle this morning. The front will progress eastward and be nearly on top of Brevard County by around 2pm. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure 'area' is approaching SE Florida, with arrival there about the same time.
Models: Today's forecast is based on a blend of the NAM, RUC, and GFS as they are all in relatively close agreement. Although not exact in nature in the short term, the end result is almost identical by most synoptic perspectives. Thus, other than localized affects and knowing exactly where/when it will rain, today really isn't too hard despite all the things that are going on. Seems weird doesn't it? The best way to approach today is with a broad-brush. It's impossible to know exactly when / where it will rain without the luxury of short-term or rather NOWCASTS. With little in dynamics and not so cool air aloft the atmosphere is pretty much ageostrophic, meaning not too good a chance of any significant storms which seems weird considering everything that's going on.
Expect the front to progress as forecast toward East Central Florida during the day but with not much associated action with it. The upper levels are too dry but last I saw our lower levels in the immediate area have changed SIGNIFICANTLY since the time that front went through last week...for the first time. So that does leave a bit of a challenge. We definitely will have more moisture to work with, but that low approaching SE Fl. will not affect us at all. I expect that what will happen is that it will either be absorbed by the front or linger around SE Fl. for a day or two. Either way the outcome is the same. The low will provide additional moisture to the front which will stream NNE into Central Florida later in the day. Believe it or not, it's not TOO likely to rain until after 2pm today with the greater likelihood being sometime after 6pm. The west side of the state might be oh so unfortunate to not see anything from this set-up as they will be behind all the action (the front). But that won't last too long, maybe a day or two.
The front should push through sometime near 8pm then linger very near by for at least a day but far enough east to put us in a NNE wind (YUCCH). Either the same low or a new one will form along it and rotate NE up the SE U.S. coast...with us just a smidge behind the boundary, yet close enough to still see a chance of rain. Once the low gets into the area around N. Carolina the front will retrograde to the NW and put all of Central Florida into a moist SSW regime for at least two days.
While we sit in this regime yet another in the series of disturbances which will be evolving in this very progressive pattern will be entering the lower Mississippi Valley and approach Florida. I'm not going to go any further at this point as we have enough to deal with on our plate with what's at hand to be concerned with 3-4 days from now. Agreed?
Not sure how the NE U.S. will fare in this set-up as I honestly forgot to look. I have interests up there and like to keep an eyeball out to see what kind of atmosphere they are toodling around in too! And you might too, so why the heck not give that area a plug now and then. I have a feeling they are going to get wet big time though. This was mentioned several days ago as a matter of fact when I first mentioned that we were entering a very active pattern as far as the entire U.S. is concerned (a progressive pattern). But that won't happen until that aforementioned low rides further up the coast. At least not in a more "siggy" fashion.
More on locally though. I'm afraid some of the 'worst' (wettest) of the weather may occur right around sunset. The opt out on this is if we get some good rains earlier that stabilizes the atmosphere. I think initially when the front goes thru the atmosphere will indeed have been stabilized, but with time as it lingers about it will revamp sometime tomorrow. We can leave that for another blog. Lots of bases to cover today. Look for a chance of rain from 2pm and after with the greatest chance from 4-9pm. There...that about sums it up.