TODAY: As we you see, we are dealing somewhat with two boundaries this Saturday morning. The first image shows where 'technically in one sense" what remains of the cold front that impact much of the Eastern portions of the country lies across North Florida. However, on the southern fringes of the strongest mid and upper level winds aloft there lies a moisture gradient (along with a few others) defining a secondary stationary boundary across dead Central Florida at 9AM this morning. Any weather to occur over Florida of cloud or light shower nature will be along and north of this boundary (and south of the more northern one).
s we can see, we are dealing somewhat with two boundaries this Saturday morning. The first image shows where 'technically in one sense" what remains of the cold front that impact much of the Eastern portions of the country lies across North Florida. However, on the southern fringes of the strongest mid and upper level winds aloft there lies a moisture gradient (along with a few others) defining a secondary stationary boundary across dead Central Florida at 9AM this morning. Any weather to occur over Florida of cloud or light shower nature will be along and north of this boundary (and south of the more northern one).
|In this image we see where Suface Moisture Flux Divergence (Low level Moisture Convergence) is occurring along the 'weather making' boundary. Very little will change with this configuration today|
|This image shows that the greatest overall atmospheric moisture through the mid-level reside north of the stationary boundary. Satellite imagery implies there is more than what is shown here. Steering is from west to east of the clouds.|
Finally. I'll include the morning visible satellite imagery to show that indeed the greatest amount of cloud coverage is along and north of the boundary where the greatest moisture resides.
I've also drawn in where I believe the warmest temperatures will be today PREDOMINATELY. The large reddish circled area is the 80Fs, with the purple area being mid-80s. Under the clouds today temperatures will probably struggle to break 80F. Not shown, is the area north of the cool front in clearing skies. Some spots here might also get close to 80F as well, just to show how weak the overall thermally speaking, actually is. The coolest areas will be along the coasts within the bounds of the light blue lines.
Also shown in the image above is where the best chance of a sprinkle will exist. Perhaps the best chance of all though by day's end will be that area on the east side of the state.
TO RECAP: Partly cloudy south and south central today south of the stationary front and warm with highs in the low-mid 80s. Along and north of the boundary highs in the upper 70s, and perhaps mid-70s in the coolest areas. The area along East Central might not receive a sea breeze until after 1 or 2pm, and could warm to 80F before onset of the sea breeze, contingent upon the amount of cloud cover, especially the area in Brevard. But have a feeling clouds will move in shortly to offset that magic mark.
Otherwise, very pleasant with light winds this afternoon, coolest within 1/2 mile of the coasts. Warmest interior South. Slight chance of a light shower as shown above, with the best chance (15%) near SR50 from Sanford to Titusville and into SW Volusia County.
TONIGHT/SUNDAY: Boundary will remain in place until daytime heating tomorrow, or roughly 11AM-1PM. Winds tomorrow will become ESE-SE by later in the day as the uplift provided by the stronger winds aloft pulls away no longer provided a source of lift in the mid-levels for that cloud deck shown in the satellite image. For could again be an issue tonight after mid-night through early Sunday where the clouds are no longer an issue. Temperatures on Sunday similar to today, but probably a bit warmer than today where the clouds will have remained most prevalent.
Otherwise, storm system in the South Central Plains takes shape and begins to impact the east 1/2 of Oklahoma eastward into Southern Missouri, all of Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana, and NW Mississippi. This system's greatest severe weather impacts (in regards to the potential for tornadogenesis) will be near dark Sunday night and overnight into mid-morning Monday as the system en-masse moves east and a bit northward with time toward the Mid-Atlantic and NE states.
MONDAY: Yet another nice day as breezes pick up a notch from the SE-SSE during the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The Plains system will have cleared Oklahoma by daybreak, and will impact all of Arkansas in some form or another, eastern Missouri, and Southern Illinois...as well as the west half of Tennessee. There is a very fine corridor of greatest tornado potential during the course of events within a very broad area that the Storm Prediction Center has placed in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. Believe the initial area will be near Ardmore, Oklahoma (extreme South Central OK) before sunset, but there are a few other locations such as west of Wichita, Kansas as well as NW Missouri to name just a few other 'outliers'. Looks likely that this will primarily be a QLCS event (much like the one the other day)...along the southern extent of the storm complex. Further north such as near N. Missouri, much of Arkansas, and into S. Illinois there will be a great chance for discrete storm cells embedded within otherwise cloudy sky conditions where the greatest helicity (spin potential) will be. The greatest low level forcing will be further south in the liner mode region, however this area may very well be highly-capped under CIN
TUESDAY: The attendant cold front from the system described above will be across NW Florida and entering North Central Portions at daybreak. Winds overnight Monday into Tuesday will pick up from the SW over Central Florida particularly overnight. Another muggy, warm for this time of year evening in store with little concerns for fog except maybe over South Florida (interior). Lows in the mid-60s...maybe even some upper 60s East Central.
The front will reach roughly from Titusville to Tampa around 2-4pm, accompanied by clouds most definitely and showers (still give it a 30/40% chance of rain coverage in beginning late morning through mid-afternoon). I'll give thunder chances a 15% chances namely over East Central Florida from Orlando -Sanford-Oakhill and down the coast to just south of Vero Beach (later in the day) and into the NE Quadrant of Osceola County, and throw in the east side of Orlando for good measure.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: From will reach the Miami Metro. Winds central swing around to ENE, but light. Partly cloudy with shower chances from West Palm and South, especially after late morning. But chances of thunder of South Florida appear will be over the interior and SW portion. Very small chances at that. Still appears the boundary will make it to the Florida Straits by Wednesday night before completely washing out to the east. However, this will be just the beginning of an entirely new weather scenario through the end of the work week.
Only change to yesterday's line of thinking is that perhaps the strongest easterly winds to develop from the Cape to Miami might remain offshore, with the best chances of showers to be along the Treasure Coast to Miami Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will run about normal for afternoon highs, with warmer than normal overnight lows (low-mid 60s A1A, mid-upper 50s interior).