"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Strong Storms Possible Today Mainly North Down through East Central

Sunrise Tuesday, June 27 2017 Off the Florida East Coast
TODAY: Frontal boundary this morning remains near I-10 and most guidance implies that it will wash out today somewhere between there and the I-4 Corridor from Daytona west toward North Tampa Bay area later in the day if it can make it that far.

Morning soundings show slightly cooler air aloft across the boards both at 500mb and 700mb though the coolest from near Ormond Beach to Jax on the east coast. Steering hasn't changed much though there is about a 10mph nudge on average toward the east coast for Brevard and Indian River Counties , and a bit more of one further north. Thinking is a possible severe category storm could occur in that area around the St John's River Valley as was the case yesterday though haven't included in the graphic for 'severe' as if so, would be far too isolated to be 'forecast-able' without any real synoptic scale features of dominance at play  .

Other stronger storms along the east coast sea breeze front might occur however as far south as Indian River County closer to or just west of I-95  (and maybe even yet further south due to more of the mesoscale boundary interactions than for other reasons further north, namely better instability at the lower levels where cloud cover is not as prevalent. This activity might be able to work toward the east coast but might not retain the 'strong' caliber in the process of doing so.

Rains could dwindle Eastern Parts of North Central or Central to after dark, and even some thunder could occur then as well.

Activity might get an earlier start too near the immediate coast as the sea breeze kicks in anywhere from West Palm Beach and north, with favored areas being near Lake Okeechobee (St Lucie, Martin Counties) and the north side of the Cape (Brevard).

WEDNESDAY: High pressure  moving across the Carolinas, though not exceptionally strong will begin to take the steering aloft further south to almost nothing but with a tendency, especially later in the day for storms to drift more toward the west rather than the east.   Remnant boundary moisture could pool however across Central so even locations 'near the coast' might get a shot at some showers or thunder as the sea breeze along the east coast develops with any stronger activity waiting until later in the day further inland.

THROUGH FRIDAY: Mostly interior thunder and over toward Route 27 - I-75 appears to be where the better chance of storms will occur. Showers still possible earlier in the day some east coast locations but too early to peg down where at this stage.

FOURTH WEEKEND To THE FOURTH: Not much change in thinking . Will likely be some isolated bursts of lightning around on the fourth , mainly inland  while the east coast beaches for the most part remain rain free (?). Overall, looks very like typical July pattern coming up this weekend into early next week with the ridge axis oscillating to be located somewhere between Central to North Florida favoring the I-4 corridor and most of Southwest Florida...then also up across much of North Florida.

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