"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 4, 2016

Pattern Change at Last! - - Ante Upped for East Coast Rain Chances Into Next Week

"Morning Stroll"
OVERVIEW (SYNOPSIS): Not much deviation from previous blog post a few days ago in regard to 'Thursday into Early Next Week". Slowly but surely the Atlantic Ridge axis is no longer not only going to be the dominate feature north of Florida resulting in east to west storm steering, but it has mostly either pulled off to the east entirely to be of little affect or dropped to the latitude of Lake Okeechobee depending on which level of the atmosphere one is looking at.

The Curse of the "Warm-Dry Spell" is coming to it's demise today into Saturday  As high pressure aloft circulating clockwise from the Lower Plains states region (give or take ) has weakened on its eastern fringes enough so that within the weakness region across Florida and parts of the Deep South weak low pressure is forecast to form around the 5000 -10,000 foot level over Georgia to become more organized and drop south across the Panhandle and eventually even into the far NE Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

 What this means for most of Florida (namely north of generally West Palm Beach) is that a SW to NE steering pattern (albeit rather weak) will be taking shape through the weekend.

Though daily variations in atmospheric  moisture availability will be problematic at times (namely South of Lake Okeechobee and at times east of a line running from near Brevard County SW toward Ft Myers) for the most part during the next 5-6 days it looks like there will be several opportunities for areas east of I-95 (even at times east of US1) to see some long awaited rainfall.

TODAY: Though steering remains light it will be from a westerly component. East coast sea breeze should hold off a bit today and with onset of it in presence of PWAT (Precipitable water) at 2.00" + and the absence  of early day cloud cover  could result in showers near if not even over the east coast areas. 

Other activity could form along the west coast sea breeze and outflow from that activity should ignite more showers/storms toward I75 going into mid afternoon. Overall state coverage as a result will be higher today though storm strength does not appear will be an issue apart from the usual lightning threats at times.
Image below is a 'general depiction' as usual. Not all areas will see rain today and somewhere down toward interior SW Florida could see a thunderstorm today as well (though not shown here).

BEYOND: Appears that some days heading into the weekend there is a chance the east coast sea breeze might even be held off almost altogether at times especially from Brevard County and north but which days if any (especially Friday - Saturday) is hard to determine at this point. Locations where east coast sea breeze is held off entirely (now that steering works in favor of the east coast) could actually be a disservice once again negating the needed low level convergence the sea breezes provide to see off showers and storms despite ample moisture availability...regardless... 

.... several "early onset' days appear to be at hand with near sunrise if not pre-sunrise activities beginning along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville and especially toward Cedar Key and the Big Bend. This area might see some 'grand totals' over the next 5-6 days well in excess of 3-4" if models hold true.  

Early onset days resulting in late morning OFBs (outflow boundaries) heading east and south could set off additional activity going into early afternoon which would 'march' eastward toward the interior and even the east coast, perhaps as early as late morning to early afternoon on some days. 

One thing that will be down-player to the overall scheme is a TUTT low to approach the state toward the weekend from the Bahamas region. This might act as a drying out mechanism for parts of south and Central Florida .

As a result, no guarantees on which days this might play havoc on the forecast for now, but a few 'less wet days' are possible especially south of I-4. Overall over the next 6 days the region north of line from near Sarasota toward Melbourne might have the highest rainfall totals, especially along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville with a secondary area from near Titusville and north along the east coast. High temperatures in the afternoon will be held down a few degrees as well as a result of increased cloud coverage during the normally warmest times of day.

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