|COULD RAIN ALMOST ANYWHERE TODAY THROUGH 10PM. BUT WHERE? EASY TO REASON WHY...BUT THERE'S ONLY DEFINITIVE SCENARIOS ...NOT LOCATIONS. THIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE SCENARIO WHICH SEEMS TO FIT THE DAY...BUT NO GUARANTEES|
There are some definitives though..namely that the most moisture covers all of Central Florida..part of South Central and part of North Central as well. The most unstable air is near the 700mb trough over North Florida as well as along the immediate coast of South East Florida. Showers are already initiating in a part of North Central Florida.
THE "SITU' " - Showers will first generate where sky is clearest this morning to the north where it is also less 'capped' with convective inhibition. South Florida is most capped, less moist, but also most unstable.
Central lies somewhere in between with the most moisture. Showers, some with heavy rain, will form in the most moist air and grow in number and strength as they inch eastward at around 10mph. Storms will develop further south and begin to spread east as well over Dead Central with stronger thunder after 12:30pm and increase in number as they fan out along outflow boundaries to the east-north-and south toward the East Coast.
SOUTH FLORIDA: Sticky-cast today. They have some options for storms with frequent lightning today after 4-5pm; however, anvil level winds should be sheared off to the South (from activity over Central) which in turn would turn the unstable atmosphere down that way more stable and in essence, neutralizing the area. However, if activity begins to wane further north by 4pm..the denser anvil tops might clear South Florida for an early evening lightning show south of Lake Okeechobee..especially if outflow from storms from the north work into the area, acting as a triggering mechanism.
NORTH FLORIDA: This area is along the mid-level trough axis, and therefore has a 'focal point'. The air is not quite as moist in North Florida near the Big Bend - Gainesville and points a bit further east and south to just north of Ocala. Therefore, I scribbled in a bit haphazardly another area in North Florida in red for late afternoon - early evening thunderstorms as well. This area will not be over-run by high clouds, so this area has a few points going for it in that regard. And, given this is where the trough axis lies ..has higher confidence.
IN GENERAL; Storms will initiate where the triggers lie initially where-ever the vorticity moves across at various locations. The scenario should unfold first where it is sunnier and then where the moist moisture resides (Central). Storms will likely weaken as they attempt to cross I-95 except possible those in South Florida if they initiate at all. The heaviest rains will fall west of I-95 where the larger storms occur and begin to dwindle. Although spotty in big totals, there could be some area that receive 2" today...now, whether that falls on an observation point where it can be measured for verification is another matter.
Lightning: The most lightning will strike with the storms that occur after 1pm and become most numerous with those associated with activity after 3:30pm, wherever that may be. Many have heard, "When it Roars, Stay Indoors". However!! That is not the way it often works. Most individuals are harmed by lightning not by when they hear the thunder roaring. It is BEFORE it roars and as it stops that they are injured. If skies overhead start to darken and look threatening, that is THE time to watch out for those first few strikes. Additionally, the nature of storms lately has been for renegade strikes to hit at seemingly the most benign time either where it just rained heavily...or had done so not far away. Bear this in mind today, although the same rule applies whenever there is a developing or decaying thunderstorm.
Rains: Nuisance ponding, some localized flooding in a few locations if they fall on a less rural area, and the ever present hazard of driving on wet roads no matter how heavy or lightly the rain falls. Some heavy storms could hit at rush hour. Problems in that regard.
Wind: Could be some stronger winds, especially in the most northern or southern areas outlined after 3:30pm through 7pm.
FRIDAY: Another challenging day in store, but everything should be shifting south a bit.
SATURDAY; Likely less moisture will be over the state, with focal points more easily determined with a return to a solid sea-breeze regime, somewhere in the state.
SUNDAY: Looks pretty quiet. At least compared to the past several days. It does appear at time we could be heading into a 2-3 day regime of early along the east coast shifting into the interior in the late afternoon. Much warmer due to less cloud coverage but less so along the east coast (east of I-95).
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AT THE TIME NOTED ON THIS IMAGE EARLY THIS MORNING, 4:45AM EDT:
AND FINALLY: Here is the forecast precipitation total put out by the North American Model early this morning for the next 42 hours. The darker and pretty the colors, the more rain it is forecasting to occur by the end of that 42 hours (or Friday night). Does the Inquirer always tell the whole truth, and nothing but the truth??!!! I'm having doubts.