"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Yet Another Tabloid Weather Forecast For Today- Less Widespread Tomorrow

TODAY: Mid-level trough axis runs across North Florida from the Big Bend toward St. Augustine. There are two, ill -defined surface ridge axis', one across Lake Okeechobee and one totally out of the picture to the South. One of these will likely washout with daytime heat while another relocates, driven by synoptic scale features.  There are several vorticity maximums at various levels of the atmosphere (which help to stir things up) forecast by models. However, they are shown to be not only in different locations at different levels, but they also vary 'in said' from model to model. This makes today another day of second guessing and Tabloid reading. 

There are some definitives though..namely that the most moisture covers all of Central Florida..part of South Central and part of North Central as well. The most unstable air is near the 700mb trough over North Florida as well as along the immediate coast of South East Florida. Showers are already initiating in a part of North Central Florida.

THE "SITU' " - Showers will first generate where sky is clearest this morning to the north where it is also less 'capped' with convective inhibition. South Florida is most capped, less moist, but also most unstable.

Central lies somewhere in between with the most moisture. Showers, some with heavy rain, will form in the most moist air and grow in number and strength as they inch eastward at around 10mph. Storms will develop further south and begin to spread east as well over Dead Central with stronger thunder after 12:30pm and increase in number as they fan out along outflow boundaries to the east-north-and south toward the East Coast. 

SOUTH FLORIDA: Sticky-cast today. They have some options for storms with frequent lightning today after 4-5pm; however, anvil level winds should be sheared off to the South (from activity over Central)  which in turn would turn the unstable atmosphere down that way more stable and in essence, neutralizing the area. However, if activity begins to wane further north by 4pm..the denser anvil tops might clear South Florida for an early evening lightning show south of Lake Okeechobee..especially if outflow from storms from the north work into the area, acting as a triggering mechanism.

NORTH FLORIDA: This area is along the mid-level trough axis, and therefore has a 'focal point'. The air is not quite as moist in North Florida near the Big Bend - Gainesville and points a bit further east and south to just north of Ocala. Therefore, I scribbled in a bit haphazardly another area in North Florida in red for late afternoon - early evening thunderstorms as well. This area will not be over-run by high clouds, so this area has a few points going for it in that regard. And, given this is where the trough axis lies ..has higher confidence.  

IN GENERAL; Storms will initiate where the triggers lie initially where-ever the vorticity moves across at various locations. The scenario should unfold first where it is sunnier and then where the moist moisture resides (Central). Storms will likely weaken as they attempt to cross I-95 except possible those in South Florida if they initiate at all. The heaviest rains will fall west of I-95 where the larger storms occur and begin to dwindle. Although spotty in big totals, there could be some area that receive 2", whether that falls on an observation point where it can be measured for verification is another matter.

Lightning: The most lightning will strike with the storms that occur after 1pm and become most numerous with those associated with activity after 3:30pm, wherever that may be.  Many have heard, "When it Roars, Stay Indoors". However!! That is not the way it often works. Most individuals are harmed by lightning not by when they hear the thunder roaring. It is BEFORE it roars and as it stops that they are injured. If skies overhead start to darken and look threatening, that is THE time to watch out for those first few strikes. Additionally, the nature of storms lately has been for renegade strikes to hit at seemingly the most benign time either where it just rained heavily...or had done so not far away. Bear this in mind today, although the same rule applies whenever there is a developing or decaying thunderstorm. 

Rains: Nuisance ponding, some localized flooding in a few locations if they fall on a less rural area, and the ever present hazard of driving on wet roads no matter how heavy or lightly the rain falls. Some heavy storms could hit at rush hour. Problems in that regard.

Wind: Could be some stronger winds, especially in the most northern or southern areas outlined after 3:30pm through 7pm.

FRIDAY: Another challenging day in store, but everything should be shifting south a bit.

SATURDAY; Likely less moisture will be over the state, with focal points more easily determined with a return to a solid sea-breeze regime, somewhere in the state.

SUNDAY: Looks pretty quiet. At least compared to the past several days. It does appear at time we could be heading into a 2-3 day regime of early along the east coast shifting into the interior in the late afternoon. Much warmer due to less cloud coverage but less so along the east coast (east of I-95).


AND FINALLY: Here is the forecast precipitation total put out by the North American Model early this morning for the next 42 hours. The darker and pretty the colors, the more rain it is forecasting to occur by the end of that 42 hours (or Friday night). Does the Inquirer always tell the whole truth, and nothing but the truth??!!! I'm having doubts.

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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

1:20pm Update

Graphic for latest situation.

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Early Start to Rains Will Likely Mean an Early End To Them Some Locationss


TODAY: Tropical Storm Arlene in the SW Gulf will likely meander W to WSW toward the Mexican Coast into Thursday. Meanwhile, as the system has wrapped up much of the moisture that was washing over Florida was pulled into it; however, there remains a large pocket of moisture over Florida that is being resupplied from the South. The above image shows what I was expecting to occur during the course of the day.  This is no longer valid considering the activity that has already begun.

It appears that a mid-level trough axis lies just offshore the Cape Area with SW Florida south of the axis. Showers offshore and back-building toward the east coast. This activity should peak out during the course of the late morning toward early noon, leaving a large area of light rain and/or extensive cloudiness. Other storms other than those to form over Central and South Central will form over portions of North Central. These are expected to be of more isolated nature. Regardless, the main threat from this activity will be a brief period of lightning and heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile. other activity is developing along the NW Coast and is pressing east to east-northeast. Much of this activity might start to dwindle as clouds from the north run over the developing storms. In essence, today will be marked by short lived storms with low cloud bases with a movement toward the NW. The biggest impact today will be heavy rains in select locations. with lightning present and most prolific in nature after from 2-5pm.

Weather South Florida can recover from the clouds and anvil flow they will likely be under from storms further north (toward that red area early) yet to be determined, although models have indicated this area will recover.  Otherwise, it is yet another day of the same old story, just a different version. The saga is expected to continue on Thursday with yet another day of second guessing this very unpredictable, moisture laden medley of "moisture soup".

FRIDAY: By Friday, the indirect affects of the the tropical system should have dwindled but with plentiful moisture remaining over the state. Based on latest guidance, strong thunderstorms could occur over a broad expanse of Central Florida if storms wait until at least early afternoon to form. But, given the latest tredns, this too could change.

BEYOND: Model guidance has indicated a shift in the pattern by late Friday or Saturday but I'm not fully sold. Some other models are showing a return to a more normal, summer like pattern...whereas others indicate a much drier pattern with SE winds prevailing both at the surface and aloft. Should that pattern indeed occur, we could be in for a more prolonged dry period for at least 3-4 days.

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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Different Version of the Same Story Today

IMAGE: Enhanced Infrared Image at 8:30AM. Areas of note 1) Bay of Campeche - numerous heavy thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave. This could develop into a depression today, but no further development is expect 2) Inverted mid-level trough runs from "The Bay" toward Florida. Mid-upper level clouds are ejecting from "The Bay" and running along this boundary and over Florida 3) low and mid-level ridge axis across Central Florida, light winds near that axis 4) What looks like an MCV north of Puerto Rico - not a tropical least not yet.

The above image highlights the ongoing, over-souped with moisture, air mass quality over Florida today. Much of the moisture in the mid-upper levels is over-flow from the Bay of Campeche area associated with thunderstorm activity there  which is getting caught up along an inverted trough extending toward Florida; thus, the partly to mostly cloudy sky (except SE Florida this morning).  Another interesting feature is what appears to be some sort of 'vortex' embedded in the prevailing easterlies in the tropic north of Puerto Rico. This area looks very organized, for what it's worth, but does not appear to be fully tropical in nature. Not development is expected. The area in The Bay of Campeche (BOC) appears to be in nomination of Tropical Depression status, if not a very brief Tropical Storm. However, if elected, it will be running a very short term of Mexico.

Zooming in closer to the state of Florida:

AGAIN: The Blue line (hard to see) shows the mid-upper level trough axis. The dark blue color is the most moisture. Note that moisture is greatest along this wind shift axis which defines this trough axis. Upper level winds above this axis are carrying the moisture from thunderstorm tops across Florida. Weak surface winds abound with the ridge axis running across Central Florida,(shown in red). Surface winds along the East Coast are generally light from the SSE-SE south of this axis this morning, but mostly light and variable except off shore.

TODAY: "Same Old Story,Same Old Song and Dance"...just a different verse in a different key. But most will hear "Rainy Days and Tuesdays Always Get Me Down".  Extensive cloudiness is in place over Central Florida but SE Florida has cleared out nicely, for a short time.  The clearing skies will be the catalyst to start of thunderstorm in this area, with a prevalent but weak northward push.

Steering currents are quite light from the SSW-S - SSE today around the ridge axis, and will have little bearing today in the long run. When push comes to shove, storms that do form will move little more than 5-10 miles in their life span. Expect that collapsing outflows will send further storm growth toward the N-NW with time...with storm debris laying low around any side of Lake Okeechobee in Palm Beach and Okeechobee Counties (for example) after an early to mid-afternoon round of thunderstorms.  Debris clouds will spread east and north with time toward Central Florida coastline communities, with some light rain possible.

Could be some localized flooding of South Florida today, but it appears the longest duration of heavy rains might occur in mostly rural areas away from the coast. Lightning and careful driving are about the only precautions really, but given that clouds have cleared there pretty nicely (at least so far)...some stronger storms could put out some stronger winds in the down pours. A wet microburst (a short period of strong wind in heavy rain) or two in the strongest storms could occur.

SOUTH CENTRAL: Storms also possible in this area near the East Coast..possibly toward Vero Beach..with a storm or two further north. The greatest concentration will be well west of I-95 from 3pm and beyond.  

NORTH CENTRAL: This area seems to be the least likely to have storms today. But note the ***DISCLAIMER at the end of this post. Mostly cloudy North Central today.

NORTH FLORIDA/PANHANDLE: Best chance of strong, late afternoon and early -mid evening thunderstorms.

OVERALL: Most folks today will not have a thunderstorm over head today, but might be able to hear thunder. A larger portion of folks will receive rain from thunderstorm debris (three fold). Most folks north of SR 60 and east of I-95 might not see any rain today (or north of Vero Beach). There could still be isolated thunderstorms though north of Vero just west of I-95 with the weaker sea breeze. Most thunder will be over by 8:30pm other than over North Florida.


***DISCLAIMER: Much of the weather today over Central Florida will be contingent upon how well the clouds break up. It is possible that some showers and storms could sprout out regardless. If so, these storms will move little from their point of origin during their brief but heavy life span. If clouds break up more than expected, much of this post in regard to 'coverage' north of a line running from Vero Beach toward Tampa will need to ramped up substantially to include higher coverage toward I-4, including inland Osceola, Orange, and Western Brevard.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: There is a weak surface boundary/front forecast today to move well into the Southeast states by tonight. This front and the associated upper level trough could provide a change in steering currents on Wednesday for a more typical thunder storm regime (albeit..a bit modified)....for Wednesday and/or Thursday wit plentiful moisture still in place. Believe Wednesday and Thursday will play a different song than the same one of yesterday and today.

BEYOND: A lot will depend on what happens in the Bay of Campeche

Beyond that time, this  would mean that a change toward more cloud free skies could be in place for the weekend. Models vary between a more prevalent SSE-SE flow across the state, favoring the west side for late afternoon thunderstorms..or that of a generic inland late day thunderstorm regime (with storms away from either coast other than Tampa Bay). But first, the system in the Gulf (and the mechanisms driving it)...need to move on out. 

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Monday, June 27, 2011

Storm Feast or Single Serving? Big Question, Huge Differences For Today

Image portrays the jet stream level winds for early through mid-late afternoon. These winds of 40-45Kts are forecast to shift a bit south during the course of late afternoon into the evening hours.

IN GENERAL: Big debate of the day for South Central and Central Florida today is this: Will it be downpours with 2-3 inches of rain possible and frequent lightning, or will there just be a few storms with most of them on the west side of the state by later today mostly over Interior North Central Florida toward the Panhandle? The debate is up in full gear. For today's post, I'll elaborate on the worst case scenario (the most rain)...but do note, as of this writing it appears there is a 1 in 4 chance of this potential.

SITUATION: Today's activity does not appear it will driven so much by sea breezes as much as it will be by true, gradient flow. The Surface to 2000ft ridge axis is forecast to lift toward North Central Florida today providing for easterly flow, which turns more toward the SE later today. Meanwhile, mid and upper level winds remain from the SW-W because the ridge in the mid levels remains over far South Florida. This equates to steering over portions of South Central and all of North Central to be from generally the west, but at only about 10-15mph. 

The big fly in the ointment today is the cloud cover. The convective temperature per the KSC sounding of recent has a convective temperature of 87F (down from 89F earlier this morning). That seems possible inland, despite the cloud cover. Some showers and a weak storm has materialized inland in a break in the clouds.  

Instability and moisture availability are not an issue today with precipitable water values near 2.00" just about everywhere other than South Florida.

NOW: It appears the Southerly gradient flow is enhancing the sea breeze off the Southern Tip of Florida as cumulus already appear to be forming down there and clearing the coast line, pressing north toward Lake Okeechobee.  The Lake Okeechobee breeze might also be playing a role today as that seems to be forming. It is hard to say for sure because it's happening under some cloud cover. One shower has formed over the interior of North Central and seems to be..gasp..stationary. A transition seems to be under way.

TODAY: In playing the stormy scenario as dictated by the title of the post today, the reason for the 'storms' will not be so much because of sea breeze driven boundaries as much as it would be because of a synoptic scale feature. That being, 500mb and 700mb  vorticity. If that indeed is true, convective temperatures might not be all so important today. Instability will be the driving factor behind just how 'stormy' it gets and for storms to form in the first place..or if there is too much cloud coverage remaining,  mainly storms going up quickly and turning to 'anvil rain' east of the spine of the state.

A model depiction of 500mb vorticity today later today. Some is shown of greater extent a few hours earlier further north, but it spreads southward with time. The first shower of the day in this area has materialized WNW of Daytona well inland. Note the vorticity streaming across the state further south...this is where some big storms could occur today. But this is shown by only on model. Other models have the vorticity all north of I-4.

In the image above, note the lack of vorticity over South Florida..this area is also seemingly behind their sea breeze storms south of Lake Okeechobee should be in and out of that area quickly if ever...approaching mainly off of Cuba. This vorticity stream is forecast to continue through sunset to various degrees before organizing well off to the east of the state tonight.

Now: From a different model we can pull out a plot of the Energy Helicity Index. This is a value which combines energy (Convective Available Potential Energy) which can be tapped into for convection (storms) to form with helicity which is function of, in simplest terms, corkscrewing winds aloft which also provide lift.

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX FROM 0-3KM (Kilometers) this afternoon

By looking at these two images, again, we see little over South Florida..but note that area coming off of Cuba...from the south. This could mean big storms for Cuba toward the Keys by evening.

With all given:

STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS: Florida Panhandle due to wind gusts of 60mph and 1" hail (very isolated).

SOME STRONGER STORMS: North Central Florida North of SR 60. Some could be magnified near the coast after 6pm from Near Vero Beach north to St. Augustine as the SE winds kick in later today under enhanced gradient / sea breeze winds. BUT..will storms make it to the coast?! 

If the bigger storms go up well to the west, with slow forward motion, their anvils will overspread the areas to their east (East of Orlando)...and kill any other activity trying to move that way. On the other-hand, if storms are driven by vorticty as shown in the first image then storms might be able to hold their own without the otherwise debilitating factor of anvil debris.

IN SUMMARY: Per the title, more questions than answers abound today. Looks like there will be a feast of storms today across portions of South Central to North Florida, but just exactly where and how they manifest is debatable. If we run with high coverage of storms, they should manifest in full between 2-3pm sometime in rapid fire fashion and continue through 8pm, gradually diminishing in coverage and strength after 7pm. Otherwise, storms will be much more isolated in nature and be  dependent upon cloud breaks, sea, and lake breezes. Most likely north of I-4. South of I-4 will have just a few storms, inland..with the areas further east covered in anvil debris or light, debris cloud rains after 5pm with few if any storms south of I-4. What a conundrum.

DAYS AHEAD: No shortage of moisture is in store. Things get more interesting in days ahead as the both ridge axis' are forecast to be south of South Central Florida, if not further south than that as an upper level trough begins to dig down the Eastern Sea Board. There is hints that one day, either Tuesday or Wednesday, will be much more quiet during the transition...on the other hand..Wednesday or Thursday could be very active once again...with even stronger storms possible than the past two days. There might even be a day where rains will not be solely confined to afternoon and evening hours.

TODAY'S HAZARDS: Mainly lightning and heavy rain (driving/flood prone areas). Some rainfall totals in the worst case scenario could be over 3". Otherwise, 1-1.75" totals could occur in the heaviest storms combined with storm debris rains hovering over those same areas. Storms will be moving pretty slowly today, but large storms will move a bit faster and cover more turf/marsh/and city.

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Sunday, June 26, 2011

Not As Warm Today, Bug Muggy - Showers and Thunder Possible

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE: A lot of thunderstorms over St. Petersburg area this morning and in the western Gulf. Anvil tops are spreading across the state as are pockets of mid-clouds and unrelated cirrus clouds. Closer inspection shows some of these clouds are thinning over South Florida where the best chance of rain will be (Namely South of I4). See below for more information regarding some factors today.

SYNOPSIS -WHAT'S THE 'SITCH?  Today's weather is being dictated once again by a low level ridge axis over South Florida and a mid- level ridge across Central Florida. Winds  at all levels are weak, but from the WSW and less than 10kts. By the whole, not much change from this wind field type pattern is expected through at least Monday or Tuesday (and possibly longer).

Clouds and storms continue to erupt over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and are moving little, but they are creating high clouds to stream across North Central Florida.  There is a break in the clouds over South Florida in the high clouds but more are upstream, but they look pretty thin.

To consider today: Do not believe it will get as warm today (mid-upper 80Fs most places except in the Panhandle/North Florida will it will be in the 90Fs).  Normally, cloud cover would damper thunder or even rain chances to near zero. however, the KSC sounding this morning showed a convective temperature required to start convective activity at only 84F. So high clouds or not, storms and showers should be able to form. I think in that image above I can even see some cumulus trying to form under the cirrus areas along SW Florida as I type, and other showers are starting to form over North Florida where even there the air mass is not quite as moist as the remainder of the state, but where the sun is bearing down more readily. Therefore, my disclaimer for today is: "Watch for large cloud breaks where storms are most likely to form. It is possible that broad coverage of storms today will not be nearly all that it is being made up to be (0nTV)".

Temperatures: Less warm inland temperatures today could mean less initial impact of sea breezes due to their later start. Winds should turn on shore at the beaches with no problem, but only remain very light until after 3-4mph. Upper level winds from the W  are forecast to strengthen just a small bit later today over the North Half of the state.  

IMAGE VALID FROM 1PM THROUGH 9:00PM. Excuse the typos. Oops.  Depending on where one is located.  Showers or light rain from storm debris type clouds 'could' fall just about anywhere today before 9pm.  Generous supply of thunderstorms looks to be in the cards for South Central and South Florida  (Mostly around Lake Okeechobee) today around the developing seabreezes and Lake Breezes. Some of these storms could be strong requiring Special Weather Statements. Further North, Storms should be more isolated until after
 4 Pm due to great cloud coverage. It is uncertain (to me) just exactly how much if any activity can get activity north of a line running from Melbourne to Altamonte Springs . So this red highlighted area is showing that if any storms do get going in that area they could be the strongest due to slightly cold air in the mid-levels...more so the further north one goes where it is also a bit drier in the mid-levels leading to stronger down drafts.

TODAY: Convection will get started first where clouds are thinnest and the temperatures warm. As temperatures warm, as they always do on a summer day, sea breezes will form..and make greater inland progression after 3-4pm. Exactly how far either coast's breeze gets will determine where or even IF they will meet (looks unlikely except maybe over SW Florida toward the Lake over the Everglades) well as where storms will or won't occur today.  Thus, the huge outlined area. More than half the state today will NOT get rained on it's not a rain out day as much as a 'cloud out' day.

NOTE that I have used the word "Could" numerous times in this post. There is nothing all too certain, although the forecast discussions do read that all official outlets (Weather Service Offices) are certain of storms today. Based on all of the above, that seems pretty certain...the difficulty is not so much with 'will it ?' as much as 'where?'.

PRECAUTIONS: Biggest impact will be localized flooding, particularly in those areas that are flood prone and which received good rainfall yesterday. The other caution is that for lightning strikes. The final TBAO (To Be Aware Of) is that for stronger wind gusts within downpours. Any down pour could briefly create strong winds of 40-55mph just about anywhere within that downpour with thunder present, but the greatest chance for such appears will be over the area noted in red. But note, this is only by a very small margin, and all in all it probably won't make that much of a difference.  

WHERE: Looks like most storms of strength will be west of I-95 today namely due to the pretense that they will be strong with a stronger sea breeze (under that assumption). The sea breeze will be stronger than the steering making for slow/erratic  storm motions. Additionally, heavy rain falls will likely 'rain storms out' before they can move all so far, perhaps every single item storm will only move about 10-15 miles at most  before decaying. Any storms to reach beyond I-95 will have to be very late toward evening if it's going to be strong, doing so by working on outflow from a previous storm, somewhere else, and would be of isolated nature if it were to occur.

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Saturday, June 25, 2011

Widespread Coverage of Lightning and Heavier Rains 'Possible' Again Today

IMAGE: At 11AM satellite image is showing rapid clearing of extensive cloud cover that was over the state earlier. South and South Central area clearing first and destabilization is now underway as some cumulus clouds are becoming apparent where the cloud breaks are largest. Storms should form in order and timing much like yesterday, although some earlier development than yesterday is possible, especially South.. Orange areas show that a sea breeze can develop once the clouds break up and heating of the land mass ensues. Once critical warmth inland is reached, the sea breeze will form. More than likely, as it looks now, it will first form over South Florida and work northward up the coast. Showers and thunderstorms can form along the sea breeze very near the coast as it works north, or, it make start at almost anytime. No particular area seems to be favor for sooner development, although the area north of the Cape might be much later (if ever) than further south.

THE BIG PICTURE: See image and text above. Note the colored text as well as that in black off to the left in that image. The yellow line depicts where there might be a mid-level disturbance in the atmosphere to cross the state today. RUC model fields are showing a large area of upward vertical motions throughout the atmosphere today beginning at 1pm. These motions are shown to occur from the ground up to 20,000 ft. This almost always implies a very large coverage of storms ..some strong. Temperatures aloft today are much like yesterday, so do not expect hail other than pea sized in strong downdrafts as storms first begin to collapse.

LATER Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) shows
this large area of vertical motion (VV or Vertical Velocity) at 3pm this afternoon.
Thus, highest storm coverage should be over the south half of the state.
Some areas could receive a storm more than once today
....especially on the East Half of the  state

As stated, the atmosphere is loaded with moisture throughout the 'column'...precipitable water values across the state are between 1.8" - 2.1". This high moisture content can precip (rain ) out as  big rainfall totals once again where strong storms occur. Even a brief storm can drop 1/2" with no problem. Lingering rains until 9-10pm will add a little more to where either heavy rain has already fallen or for those areas that never receive a storm today. Not everyone will have a big storm today which should go without saying. It'll be a roll of the dice and a spin of the wheel to see how and where the chips may fall. Someone today is going to be dealt a Royal Flush...perhaps over South Florida near the coast, perhaps Central Florida (somewhere), or perhaps Somewhere in North Florida later today in the form of a Severe Storm with strong winds...time will tell. Who knows, maybe they won't see storms at all today as shown by the morning NAM model. Hmmm...

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON: Rain/storm coverage should increase slowly and haphazardly for much of the day through 3pm. The west coast sea breeze will ignite storms as it works east, and be accompanied by the mid-level trough and upper level lift as it prods ahead. We can see the forecast 'lift' in the atmosphere by the image above.  Over North Florida...another separate region  of lift will form later this afternoon associated with divergent (and stronger) jet stream level winds north of SR 528 to JAX, being the strongest from DAB to JAX. This too, can result in strong storms contingent upon how much the clouds can clear in  that area, and thus, the atmosphere can destabilize. This is depicted in the first image. A funnel cloud is again possible with a storm or two near the coast along the sea-front front in the early afternoon  and/or later in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze progresses toward the East Coast in those areas not affected by early afternoon rains.

LATE-AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: The strongest storms should occur after 4PM until 9:00pm as the mid-level trough works across the state in conjunction with the most unstable time of day and progression of the west coast sea breeze. Storms will move in general from west to east at 10 -15mph, but this rather slow motion as is almost always the case, will also allow out flow boundaries and progression/propagation along those boundaries to result in chaotic individual storm motions. Radar could show one storm moving north with another nearby storm moving in almost the opposite direction...but the general progression will be from west to east.  Outflow from storms back to the west can initiate more storms in the 'cleaner air"...which would result in some training of a storms in a few locations over the same areas, mainly inland. Storms up and down the east coast today should be able to move offshore ...if not earlier then later in the afternoon toward early evening.

AVERAGED MOISTURE CONTENT AT 11AM: Blue is very moist. Two mid-level troughs are shown, one  off the Gulf (West Coast) and another in the Panhandle. Note comments on the graphic in the colored text.

SUNDAY: Another of storms looks to be in the cards. Oh well. How things will play out tomorrow cannot be determined ...with even a guess...until we see how today/tonight ends up.

MONDAY: Could be another of storms, with less coverage. Some storms on Monday might be stronger though due to less overall coverage, greater instability, and sea breezes smacking more firmly together closer to the interior with only slow storm motion.

TUESDAY: For now, it looks like there could be noon time type showers forming near the coast and progressing westward as the day wears on across the spine of the state and toward the west side late in the afternoon. This pattern COULD continue for two days...OR...we might slide straight into a more 'marine showers' type regime on the east side..evolving into thunderstorms the further west they progress, especially over South Florida. Time will tell.

TROPICS: Not looking as much like tropical storm development will occur in the Bay of Campeche, although a depression is still possible which would move right into Mexico. This, in part, is due to the fact that the ridge axis which is dictating storm motion in Florida might not lift as far north as has been forecast the past 2 days.  (another reason why thunderstorms can occur on the east side of the state again tomorrow).  We will need to continue to monitor the Gulf of Mexico though going into the first week of July, closer to Florida. The GFS, although preposterously too far out in time to be close to accurate, has been showing development toward Florida for several runs...and continues to do so. Could the Shuttle Launch be rained or clouded out, not from a 'system' but because of rainshowers? Time will tell. 

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Friday, June 24, 2011

Showers and Thunder At Some Point Possible Just About Anywhere Today

WILL BE HIGH HUMIDITY/RAIN/LIGHTNING. Note that even in those areas in green that thunder can still occur but be of less overall coverage.

TODAY - SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: Really not much too say in regard to vigorous stormy low pressure troughs today. The climate around Florida today will be right on cue, that being, like a typical summer day that ends with showers and thunderstorms around the state - starting by early afternoon and lasting until late tonight.

The weather across most of the state will be dictated not by synoptic scale placement of stormy troughs but rather by high pressure at various levels (above the ground) which will dictate the strength of the sea -breezes as well as the direction of storm motion.  However, although the direction of motion is from WSW toward the ENE  in general, this will not necessarily be the direction that storms will 'move' since those winds are weak, perhaps not even as strong as the sea breezes will be once they develop.  Storms, once developed,  will more or less propogate along sea-breeze and Lake Breeze boundaries...but will first form along these boundaries and move along the motion of the boundary rather than be steered by upper level winds.   This makes the determination of just exactly where rain will or won't occur very tough to pin down, especially as we get later into the afternoon and sea breezes strengthen and Lake Breezes (particularly the Lake Okeechobee shadow)...changes direction.

NOW: For now, the West Coast Sea breeze so far today as of 1pm has a jump start on the East Coast sea-breeze. It is clear that at this hour, even way out on the barrier island where the wind is from the south..that there is a prevalent SW flow elsewhere. This can be seen by satellite animation as well as  detected by the smell of smoke over in Merritt Island and Cocoa Beach from a fire that is smoldering in the SW part of Brevard County..with a slight sea breeze on the islands creating sinking air which is trapping the smoke and some haze near the ground. 

Otherwise, the winds aloft for steering are the strongest over the Northern Part of the state from near Central Volusia County and north along a bit of a deformation zone which was further to the north of the state yesterday. Showers and some thunder have been ongoing up that way and are moving from west to east.. Some higher clouds from this area could impinge as far south as Flagler County oand over toward Cedar Key on the west side of the state and deter storms from growing stronger than normal, especially in the absence of a sea breeze boundary to work with at the low levels. Not really expecting tremendously strong storms well to the north in and near this zone, but one or two zesty ones are possible given the winds aloft. 


Daytime heating is bearing down on a very moist low level atmosphere with dewpoint temperatures will into the 70Fs. The atmosphere is expected to become moderately unstable this afternoon with cool air aloft, but nothing unusual. Winds aloft are very light and were nearly calm this morning at some levels of the atmosphere at the time the soundings were taken.  With daytime heating a thermal trough of lower pressure will form down the spine of the state, most pronounced from West of JAX toward Lake Okeechobee, more toward the East Side of the state.  Early day inhibition will hold off storms until after 2-3pm as the sea-breezes gain momentum..although some could start sooner in isolated fashion on Lake boundaries as well.

The strongest storms will occur between 5:30pm -8:30pm with some big rainfall accumulations possible due to slow storm motion and high moisture content of the atmosphere which tall storms will tap into throughout their growth stage. The heaviest rain will fall as storms begin to collapse under their own weight wherever that may happen to be. Some of those heaviest storms could put down strong wet-microburst like winds within and near those downpours.  This type activity will occur over the interior areas for the most part. The strongest storms will form during these hours due to meeting of Lake/Sea/and outflow boundaries (from previous storms earlier in the day as well as newer ones) after peak heating and when the sea breezes are at their strongest and start to approach each other.

WILL ANY EAST COAST BEACH-SIDE COMMUNITY RECEIVE RAIN TODAY?: This is where the models today are different from days past. There is a hint that the sea-breeze will not hold up much past 7pm under the more pronounced SW-SSW synoptic scale flow...and may collapse during this time frame. For now, I'm showing in the image above that the best chance of actual storms moving offshore is from North of SR528 and north to JAX where upper level winds are a bit stronger, but this is not to say that toward evening time up through 10pm that a storm could not move offshore elsewhere along the coast due to outflow from inland storms sending the sea breeze back toward the coast underneath this prevalent synoptic scale wind flow.   

ALSO NOTE: Some areas that appear will be most favorable for a storm today could quickly loose those credentials in the event that a storm further upstream sends up high level clouds (the storm anvil) out in that direction, spreading clouds over an otherwise unstable and favorable area for a future storm to form (and thus, making it much less likely at the flick of a switch). Storm anvils determine where it won't rain just as much as wind boundaries determine where it will.  At least, with much of any 'vigor'.

By early evening some sort of mesoscale system(s) will become dominant somewhere over Central or South Florida, and it is where and how one of these systems (or combination thereof) evolves that will be the deciding factor in regard to where mid-late evening isolated storms will move toward or linger for more rainfall accumulation.

This image shows the Downdraft CAPE; accessed through the Storm Prediction Center website at
This shows were the best potential is for stronger down drafts; however, these values are not overly impressive. It is interesting that the axis of higher values runs right along where the Lake Okeechobee shadow is currently located  toward Cocoa Beach(and thus subsiding air at the low levels...which leads to stronger down drafts in storms that  can form in the area).. However, once the surface winds change so will these values, both in their number and location.

SATURDAY: TBD, but looks a bit like today, only shifting things a bit further south. A lot could change by tomorrow depending on what happens where today, how much, and how for now, we can run with the pack and assume that storms are again possible tomorrow. Where will the be most likely? Anyones' guess.

TROPICS: Not tropical issues down the line. Will start hearing about the Bay of Campeche/Honduras/SW Gulf area for the next several days, but just exactly what will form there and where it will go if it does is up for grabs. Currently it appears though that anything that does get organized enough to become a depression or storm will remain there and move west toward the Mexico Border and possibly toward extreme Southern Texas. However, even as far away as this tropical activity will be, the overall synoptic scale pattern which  would favor (or not favor) any development will also indirectly impact the weather over the State of Florida most of next week.

At this point, it looks like the East Side of the state could see an end to the thunderstorms though beginning as soon as Sunday afternoon. This has been the trend of the GFS for several, what is still to be determined is whether this flow (from the ESE-SE) will be a moist flow favoring east coast ocean shower activity at almost any time...or be a dry one with few clouds in the sky. Either way, it would favor the west side of the state for the thunder.

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Thursday, June 23, 2011

Isolated Early Afternoon Showers, Increasing Scattered Strong Evening Thunderstorms

***SPECIAL NOTE: GRAPHIC IS STRICTLY PRELIMINARY - conditions can and will likely change during the course of the afternoon with a large deviation from the above image. Official information for Florida is available through the NWS for each reader's area of responsibility (Melbourne, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Miami, Key West, or Tampa NWS Offices)

SYNOPSIS: Mainly a late afternoon, sea breeze driven convective type cycle is in store for today...activity almost completely driven by low level wind fields and moisture convergence. There is no strong 'storm system' on the way. On the contrary, if it wasnt  for Florida being how and where it is located could be a completely sunny day. 

Areas today to be affected by showers and storms (either as they are forming or decaying) will receive  rain from either inland progressing sea- breezes, the sea-breeze/Lake Okeechobee (and other inland lakes) boundaries, and finally the west coast/east coast sea breeze boundary handshake...or as they approach to embrace.  The sea breeze collision will occur first over North Florida, possible working south toward Flagler County very late this afternoon into the early evening, whereas other large lake boundaries could meet up with either sea breeze and create showers/storms. The west and east coast sea breeze might not actually ever meet south of Lake Okeechobee due to prevailing southerly winds, whereas the east coast sea breeze north toward St. Augustine will hardly make any progress, if any, away from the coast.

Hot inland well as humid. It is going to REALLY feel like summer today. Just on schedule.

NOW: The lake breeze boundary at 10AM is already becoming apparent with a SSW flow prior to onset of the east coast sea-breeze. Showers along the Lake Shadow could form along the interiors of any county on the east coast by or shortly before 1pm and/or around the big Lake.  

EARLY AFTERNOON: Showers can continue to form along the inland progressing east coast sea breeze along and west of I-95 almost anywhere, vicinity of Lake "O" in South Florida (as noted within the green)...Some of these showers can become brief thunderstorms after 1:30pm and beyond.

LATE AFTERNOON: Expecting the east coast sea breeze to become strong from primarily Central Brevard toward Southern Volusia County as well as across NW Florida.  This sea breeze will be stronger than the winds aloft which normally would steer storms toward the coast, especially south of Daytona Beach. Therefore, storms will have a hard time crossing I-95 or US1 south of Daytona, at least at first because the winds steering the storms will not be stronger than the sea-breeze where it is at its strongest (the barrier islands and along and east of US1).

 During this time frame coastal 'wind spirals (horizontally and vertically) will be able to form...more technically, helicity and low level vorticity, as seen below, will develop. These factors add boost to storm strength. Note how the colored areas are lined up on the leading edge and just behind the east coast sea breeze primarily for Brevard County and north in this image below:

THIS IMAGE IS FOR THE LOWEST 5000ft of the atmosphere, forecast by the North American Model (NAM). Also note how, per this model guidance, there is broader expanses left behind by the west coast sea breeze over Central and North Florida. in the aqua shading..there is also some near Palm Beach County. This area may need to be monitored closely later, but believe the SE winds there will take that disturbed area to the northwest into Okeechobee County.

On the other hand, note what is happening in the upper regions of the atmosphere. It is this region that the more 'synoptic scale' , and trickiest part of the forecast comes in to play. I am providing this image to show why this forecast is so difficult today in regard to just exactly where it will rain today. Specifically, note  the lack of 'disturbances or boundaries. In the winter and early spring, it works the other way around, but in the summer months lack of an ORGANIZED focus is what makes 'where' storms will happen more concisely most difficult to determine.

At 20,000 ft there is nearly nothing to see. Today's weather will all be dictated where boundaries develop and meet closer to the ground. In winter, just the opposite is true.

TODAY'S STORM CHARACTERISTICS: Precipitation will begin as showers, possibly evolving into thunderstorms with just a few lightning strikes after 1pm - 3pm South and interior Central Florida, but will be isolated in coverage. Storm coverage will increase toward NE Florida by later in the afternoon and  around Lake Okeechobee in the area outlined in the image at the top. Note, this is  preliminary information (for purposes of this post) and not official. Official information comes through the National Weather Service. 

Expect that the big change today will occur after 5pm and become most noticeable over North Central Florida and NE Florida  heading into 6:00pm and peaking from 7:00pm - 9:00pm. The biggest hazard today I'd think will be excessive lightning strikes and heavy rainfall in metro-areas along and near I-4 and close to I-95 in Volusia and Flagler Counties and working into the Orlando Metro/near Sanford/Altamonte Springs, Deltona, Oviedo, and Deland for example. The Deland/Sanford area might really live up to some of its infamous lightning fame early this evening...time will tell.

Believe there could be some severe thunderstorm warnings or SWS

Frightening and scary as excessive lightning can be, it does not characterize a storm as 'technically severe'; thus, just because a warning is not issued does not make a storm any less deadly. Realize that any winds and/or hail is highly unlikely to be 'deadly' today. The most deadly weather related factor to occur today will be driving in an unsafe fashion on wet roads. In which case, even a heavy rain shower can be deadly.  Unless one choose to pull a Ben Franklin on a Lake, Golf Course, Lake, or Beach.

MID-EVENING: As the strong east coast sea breeze which will nearly parallel the coast and run up the intracoastal and over the barrier islands begins to relax, the steering currents will now be nearly equal to the sea breeze strength. This could permit storm activity to 'break the barrier' created by the sea breeze and either move or build toward the coast. If storms can reach the beach later (but with more difficulty)..this would occur in extreme Southern Volusia County into North Brevard, perhaps even parts of Central Brevard  after 8:30pm through 10:00pm sometime. For now, thinking worst case will be cloudiness and very light rain.

LATE EVENING: Strongest activity will continue to wane after 9:45pm or so, with perhaps a few stragglers over inland areas or near the coast in a much weakened state.

*** The very latest NAM model I have just seen prior to this writing indicates no rain today south of Daytona Beach, if even there...yet does show those disturbed areas in the second image. This seems a bit suspect, but the chance is there that most of the rain shown in the above image will not occur at all into Central Florida. Hmmm.

FRIDAY: Similar scenario, only the same type of set up is forecast to occur further south. As stated in the post of two days ago, only far Southeast Florida might avoid the bad storms as well as the immediate West Side of the state. But rains should be coming their way working into the weekend.

BEYOND: I'm seeing the forecast on The Weather Channel for storms nearly everyday, but do not believe it just yet. It appears a deformation zone, a zone where a frontal boundary is being shredded apart by opposing/non-complimentary wind fields, is forecast to approach Florida in an otherwise moist environment. This could mean that a lot of cloudiness could be in the cards with only random showers and weaker thundershowers being  in the cards...of isolated nature...or even only primarily cloudy skies rather than storms. On the other hand, depending on how either 1) a mid level ridge builds eastward across the Deep South and North Florida; or 2) the surface ridge axis remains over South Central to South Florida will be a deciding factor. However, the trend of most agreement I can find is that the ridge axis could shift way to the north of the state by Sunday, which opens up a more SSE-SE flow across the state which could start an onshore moving showers regime across Central and South Florida...evolving into thunderstorms toward the central and west side of the state going into next week.

TROPICS: As noted in a previous post a few days ago, it still appears that a disturbance could be in the making toward Honduras and into the Bay of Campeche and/or the Bay of Honduras. Expect we will be hearing a lot about that area in days ahead. One model has this area evolving into a MASSIVE low pressure area with a moisture trough appendage extending the whole way to Florida, making for continued shower chances. Time will looks a bit over done.

DISCLAIMER REMINDER: All of the images and words written in this post are of my own choosing; made neither to make/meet/nor break official outlets. Posts are strictly an avenue to express other potential possibilities with the weather on any given day and days ahead. Posts are not for planning purposes; In other words, I'm writing this just for fun..and hope you read just for fun as well. Thanks!

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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Storms Favoring Western Interior Late Afternoon through Early Evening

Depiction of current conditions with the sea breeze fronts and where it could shower or storm into the early evening from 1:15pm through 10pm.

TODAY:  The only change from yesterday is that the synoptic scale flow across the southern 1/2 of the state has become more southerly. The East Coast seabreeze took off last hour and is racing up the coast at breakneck speed. Otherwise, the West Coast seabreeze is moving very little, and from the looks of things this will continue to be the case for both boundaries.. All folks along and east of I-95 will be dry today with chances of showers and thunder increasing toward the Florida Turnpike and I-4 West of Orlando as the day (and boundaries) progress.  Showers should form during the afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze progresses westward and develop into eventually thunder after 4 pm from where either the East Coast seabreeze converges (meets) with the Lake Okeechobee breeze boundary ("The Shadow") or  when it nearly meets up with the West Coast boundary...but be of greatest wealth and health late this afternoon between 5:15pm - 8:00pm toward West Central Florida.

NORTH FLORIDA: North Florida at this time by all appearances looks much like it did at this time yesterday, but believe, that like yesterday, this area just might be able to 'squeeze water out of rock' as the sea breezes from both coasts approach each other during the early evening, especially just west of the St. John's River from near Ocala toward Gainesville southward toward I-4 into Lake County.  Any storms to form here should dwindle as soon as the rock is squeezed out as the sun sets.

NORTH CENTRAL: Best chance for storms looks to occur over Lake County then south and west from there toward the Tampa Bay area, including communities like Land-O-Lakes, Lutz, Brandon, and Bradenton/Sarasota.  There is a bit more moisture to start with over West Central Florida, so some of this activity might linger until 9pm or so.

THURSDAY: Tough forecast for Thursday. In general, there is a model consensus with increased moisture availability as well as shower/storm coverage of scattered storms over the interior eventually reaching the east coast, primarily north of the Brevard Coutny line, and remaining west of I-95 elsewhere. It gets very tricky in regard to weather Eastern South and Central Florida will receive rain at all (especially along I-95 and east of there), as the mid-level steering winds are not strong enough to overcome the stronger East Coast sea breeze.  It is very possible the at least the North half of Brevard could get some spittle at or after the sun sets and the sea breeze relaxes...or will at least become overcast.  

*** As a side bar: There has been indications that a 'big' rain/storm event could result during this transition period. Time and time again it has been proven that 'strange things' can happen during a change in what had been a prevailing pattern, and we have been in  a prevailing dry period for a few days now..and going to transition to much wetter (or at least one in regards to the atmospheric moisture content is concerned) pattern.  For instance, from time to time I've been seeing rainfall totals up to 3" inches somewhere around I-95 from North Central Brevard toward the Orlando/Sanford/SW Volusia County area for two days now. The area keeps getting highlighted by these models, but shifts around in regard to just where exactly the zone of contention lies. On the other hand, the GFS just brings all the moisture in as a 'fail swoop" generalizing a huge, vast expanse of 'showers' state wide (except for the barrier islands of Brevard and those located along and east of I-95 toward South Florida.  The reason for the discrepancy lies in just how long the pungent 700mb ridge holds on to the East Coast combined with a healthy east coast sea breeze forecast to form tomorrow afternoon which would essential prevent showers and storms from crossing this invisible barrier.   

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Best chances for showers and early afternoon to mid-late afternoon thunderstorms. Perhaps a few could be heavy during initial onset of development, but with a generally uniform SSW-SW flow aloft, a lot of cloud debris remaining form the previous day's activity combined with late morning cumulus cloud development, the sea breezes might have a hard time actually meeting later in the day under only a marginally to moderately unstable atmosphere. Clouds/showers could linger throughout the evening just about anywhere whether it rains in any given location or not. Muggy overnights and less hot days...although the late morning toward noon time hours could be uncomfortably icky. BUT, we still have time to see what later guidance spits out. The GFS is going 'bonker nuts' with confusion even heading into only Monday depicting a wide variety of scenarios which could develop with each and every 6-hour run of the model.  The NAM, to give it credit despite its hyperactive shortfalls, has been more consistent lately.

SUNDAY/BEYOND: Looks like there will again be another pattern change sometime between late Sunday or Monday. One of showers forming almost right along the coast as well as inland transition to an ocean shower regime...still too sketchy to say noted in the previous paragraph.

BEST THING IS: It looks like this upcoming pattern could put a nice dent in the drought conditions..which might mean relaxing the water restrictions and eliminating the potential cancellation of fireworks exhibitions for the 4th of July.

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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Summer Begins at 1:16PM (EDT) Today

Today is the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere. On the solstice, we also hit the longest day of the year. From here on out, the days begin to get shorter. The word solstice comes from the Latin words for "sun" and "to stop," due to the fact that the Sun appears to stop in the sky. The Sun is directly overhead at its most northern point at "high-noon" on the summer solstice which will officially occur at 1:16PM this afternoon EDT, creating more sunlight in the Northern Hemisphere on this day then any other.

The sun will be passing directly over the Tropic of Cancer today (as opposed to the Tropic of Capricorn). To remember which season marks Summer vs. Winter for these 'Tropic Latitudes" for the Northern Hemisphere, just think 'skin cancer' and you have summer. For those with a birthday in January or late December, Capricorns. Today also marks the beginning of Winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

However, it is not the warmest day of the year in the broader sense. It normally takes approximately 30 days for the heat from the sun to work through the atmosphere, so there is a time lag, and thus July is typically the hottest month for most of North America. Additionally, it can take 60 to 90 days for the oceans to respond which means they are at their warmest in late August through early October; and such, we have the peak of the hurricane season in early September. This rule of thumb normally does not apply to Florida where the hottest days are found in late May through through first 3 weeks of June for the most part.

During spring and fall, the earth's axis is pointing sideways so both hemispheres have moderate weather and the rays of the sun are directly overhead the equator. Between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn (23.5° latitude south) there really are no seasons as the sun is never very low in the sky so it stays warm and humid ("tropical") year-round. Only those people in the upper latitudes north and south of the tropics experience seasons

FORECAST: Dry along the east coast today , in fact...most everywhere over East Central Florida. Only portions of South Florida and the western interior will see isolated showers and storms today at best.  High pressure in the mid-levels is moving off the Florida NE Coast today, which will place all of the east coast in easterly return flow with an earlier East Coast sea breeze onset. Unfortunately, this could also mean it will get hazy today. Smoke from the fires that have continued to smolder, impressively so yesterday, had been offshore the past two days...but with the circulation to be in place today, it could come in the back door from offshore. It could get most hazy behind the sea breeze boundary under the sinking (and quite dry) air. Hopefully the worst of it will remain suspended above the sea breeze boundary, but even so...there should be some entrapped in the mid-levels.

WEDNESDAY: Not much of a change in regard to the immediate east coast...someone could get some showers tomorrow...more toward North a big change in the pattern toward what looks will be the Florida Wet Season which will begin on Thursday and more likely Friday through the week end when overall precipitable water values will rise to 2.00" inches for a few days.

THURSDAY: The trend has been on for showers and eventually thunderstorms to form toward the west side a progress slowly (all day long to do so) toward the East Coast mainly north of West Palm Beach or perhaps Vero Beach.  Much greater overall atmospheric moisture will circulate from the tropics in advance of an approaching mid-level trough once the mid-level high pressure area now in place has moved further east and out of the way. Trends have been favoring mostly the north half of the peninsula to receive the benefit of this moisture at first...working into parts of South Central late in the day.  It is possible that some heavy thunderstorms will impact mainly the East side of the state from near Sebastian Inlet to Jacksonville, reaching the immediate east coast east of I-95 after 7 or 8pm. Things could change, and there is the possibility that the immediate east coast south of Cape Canaveral (if even) will not yet see the rain, but the trend has been pretty consistent for the Cape area to get some heavier storms toward to just after sunset which could linger through late evening.

FRIDAY: Better chance of a broad expanse of rainfall across the state, and suspect official forecasts will up the ante on the 'chance of rain toward 50 or 60%'...before all is said and done. It appears that the only location in the state that will not get bigger rains will be just where it is needed the most (extreme SE Florida).

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: more rain chances in the offing, perhaps into Monday.

RAIN TYPE: Do not expect severe thunderstorms during the transition. Air temperatures aloft will be warm in comparison to earlier this year, since the flow aloft will be guided more by placement of high pressure ridges rather than low pressure troughs.  This is a totally typical summer-type, wet season pattern that will persist all in all through the remainder of the year until fall...last year, we never once had any cold shots of air aloft...and thus, less storms..hardly and strong/severe storms. 

Going into early next week the pattern eventually will shift from afternoon/evening storms to an onshore, persistent flow (moist) which would lead to showers just about anytime. Southeast Florida could end up getting their most beneficial rains during this time.

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