"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Remote Chance of Thunder East Central/The Southeast - Mostly Sparsed Showers

Last of the 'Rainy Period' Closes on Brevard County Wednesday

TODAY: What a difference an over-night makes. As referenced previously (per model consensus), the deep moisture and highest PWAT air has moved off to the east (and far South) along with strongest winds aloft since late yesterday and overnight. Though lower stratus and surface moisture remains it is  unapparent to the observer on the ground apart from seeing rawinsonde data and water vapor satellite imagery (see below image).

With less moisture could see more breaks in the cloud cover once heating begins especially over North Florida and South Central/South Florida. Central will have the better chance of seeing more clouds today as a frontal boundary works south this morning from I-10 toward I-4 and even toward the Beach-Line Corridor by around 5pm later today.

A weak low level circulation shows up on infrared satellite imagery roughly 100 miles west of Brooksville before dawn this morning (see above). 

It is expected that this may become absorbed into the upper level pattern and move east along the frontal boundary this afternoon which could provide some minimal 'punch ' to the 'front' this afternoon. Apart from convergence along the slow moving boundary, hard to justify thunder in the absence of low level convergence and warm air aloft without 'significant' triggers streaming aloft over head, at least not being indicated per early morning guidance(s), other than across the frontal zone and  Southeast Florida   where some guidance paints storms forming near I-95 and quickly moving offshore to the east in the presence of low level instability and deeper moisture. 

The Graphics for blog purposes are not showing that potential; however, thunder could still occur over eastern portions of South Florida if things play out 'just right' down in that region.


FRIDAY: Frontal boundary expected to make it to  'somewhere  Lake Okeechobee region'   by mid-afternoon and mostly lose identity. Sea Breeze convergence and steering aloft still from the SW appears to paint a chance of showers/thunder mainly Central and Eastern portions of the state from I4 and south.

SATURDAY: What remains of the boundary lifts back to the north toward I-10 making for a bit of a 'pseudo-warm front type affair' going into Saturday afternoon for the region of North Central Florida. 

Sea breezes still at work for convergence and increased overall moisture (PWAT air) from 1.75" - 2.00" could lead to some storms and perhaps on the stronger side East Central as   some colder air aloft might pass overhead. Storm movement again toward the east but rather slowly, which might lead up to some locally high rainfall totals.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Pattern shift in full affect will have commenced as mainly east to southeast flow begins. As a result, east coast apart from the chance of a remote coastal overnight to pre-noon shower will remain dry with the majority of rainfall chances along the west coast and even offshore the west coast.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: Still up in the air for this time frame, but so far not looking 'high and dry'. GFS continues to indicate increasing moisture with a more SSE type flow regime both surface and up through the mid-levels. Coastal showers possible most any time moving into the late Thursday- Friday time frame. There are implications of a tropical connection from   the Yucatan but guidance is shifting around, proving to be unreliable for future projections in regard to any form of a Tropical Forecast (though it's not stopping some from spreading hyped up 'rumors' so a heads up if you see one ) as well as the local or even state forecast.  

Suffice it to say for now, we are going to be moving into one 'type' of summer  pattern the first half of next week at least, which favors the interior and mostly the west coast for late day thunder. 

Another type would favor the interior only, and another type would favor the east side of the state.

Much depends on the location of the low level Atlantic surface ridge (Bermuda High) axis location and steering aloft. In this case coming up, the surface ridge axis will be north of Florida making for easterly flow, though rather light at least up through Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday the 'impressions' being given as of this morning is a much more wet pattern evolving heading to late week, next weekend.

Child Flees the Scene as Storm Clouds Move In