"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

"It's Almost Here!" Frozen Precipitation in Panhandle Now

Current 4PM Position of Front. Last hour there was as much as a 50F degree
temperature spread between the Pensacola region and Orlando

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY:  Not too much of a change from previous post other than when the best chance of truly measurable rainfall might occur. As can be seen above, the cold front is on its way south slowly but surely. It now appears it will be in North Central into Central and finally South Central Florida between midnight though 9AM, and over direct Central somewhere between 4AM- 8AM (models differ). It also appears again to be a very shallow boundary with SW-WSW winds not too far off the surface. In that sense, the cloud cover is extensive with plentiful moisture associated with the front and behind it for a change rather than ahead of it. 

As noted the other day, this could set the stage for a pretty nasty day tomorrow near I-4 and north working southward with time. Cloud cover if not fully over Central Florida already at sunrise will be shortly thereafter with increasing chances of 'drizzle' and light rain. South Florida might also get in some heavier rainfall from a discombobulated pre-frontal trough.

Warmest temperatures on Wednesday might be those either before sunrise or shortly thereafter depending on the front's timing, but wouldn't expect it to warm much much if not become cooler all day, particularly if we started getting any form of  precipitation. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs (warmer south) and colder north.

The only change so far is concerning Thursday. The GFS is now showing this day to be the day with heavier rainfall (who knows, maybe a few rumbles of thunder) as mid level lift in an already over-running situation (cold air at ground but almost warmer above in association with the WSW winds)..would make for low clouds, fog, maybe some heavier rain, and maybe even some thunder. The latest Melbourne NWS forecast put it well, "If you ever wanted to know what the weather in Seattle is like, now might be your chance".

THURSDAY: Thus, Thursday might be the overall worst of the next two days with little change in temperature  the entire time. The worst is looking to pull out to the east overnight with partial clearing on Friday and much warmer, though possibly a bit cloudy at times yet still since we never fully see dry air, especially south of I-4.

THIS WEEKEND: The GFS is showing near to above record high temperatures by Sunday (already). Another front is poised to pass through but it would be  a backdoor front with winds immediately easterly behind it with a cool down to near to maybe a tad below normal but nothing outrageous at all.
It is looking to remain either very warm to near normal up through day 10 February if even another front goes through least as of the last couple runs of the GFS. We might have seen the worst of winter now...time will tell.

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"Manus Dei"


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Monday, January 27, 2014

The Late Tuesday/Wednesday Dilemma - Beyond is Looking 'Up"

Problematic Cloud cover associated with poorly defined
 trough could linger while washing out over Central Today

TODAY: A glance out your window tells the story and above shows the situation. If one is generally in the South half of the state the day will be quite fine , but from Brevard County and north some cloud cover associated with a wisp of a trough stretched east/west across the state has about come to a screeching halt in regard to any further southward progress. With exposure to day time sun..some of these clouds could really begin to break up, the question becomes with that with they only remanifest in another form since that boundary will still be in the area? Regardless, the only effect in this region will be how warm it will get this afternoon contingent upon the extent of cloud coverage. The previous post had  already noted problematic periods of cloud cover in days ahead, and this is one of those instances. Note above that a cold front will be entering north to north central and eventually Central Florida very slowly in the next 48 hours but until then...

TUESDAY: will work toward  the I-4 corridor. The GFS is now really holding off on the rainfall totals except north of I-4 whereas the NAM almost looks like a carbon copy of the GFS 48 hours ago for Tuesday into Wednesday when the previous post was made meaning rainfall, some heavy,  as far south as the Volusia/Brevard County line region and north toward North Florida. This day also appears will have potential issues with cloud coverage though , thus time will tell on those days; Central and South Florida will again see temperatures ranging in general through the 70Fs and some lower 80Fs (South Florida).

WEDNESDAY:  Contingent on what amasses on Tuesday. This is the big day in question though the front's position is general agreed upon to be across Central Florida near South Brevard by Day's end toward Sarasota. If the NAM or the old GFS verifies, it will be a nasty day near I-4 with temperatures in the mid 40Fs to the lowers 50Fs with rain rain rain...some making it as far south Central Florida from near Melbourne across the state toward Sarasota. These conditions persist well into Wednesday night but at this point abate by Thursday morning as the front glides toward the Florida straits and fully washes out leaving behind a very cool pond of air to persist through Thursday.
On the other hand, recent runs of the GFS have backed off on the rainfall , electing instead to ride with extensive cloud coverage.

THURSDAY: Under the surmise that front will have cleared though the atmosphere never fully dries out south of I-4, partly cloudy and perhaps even some cloudy periods with highs in the upper 50F toward the lowers 70Fs far South Florida (and colder further north) as winds begin to swing around to the NE-ENE. The good thing about the front taking so long to slide through Florida is that the high pressure behind it will be moving at a much faster pace toward the east coast of the Carolinas  (hence, no cold NW winds behind the front).  Unfortunately, this looks to be a very cold and perhaps snowy event spell for the coastal Carolinas as a result.

FRIDAY: Warmer morning far east coast and warmer days ahead from February 1 - 5th still stands tall! Perhaps near record highs in some areas away from the beaches come this weekend into early next week.
GFS has hinted once or twice that there might even be a chance of inland thunderstorms either Saturday or Sunday over Central Florida though the last GFS run backed off on that potential. It appears much will depend on the extent of cloud coverage vs clearer early day skies for  thunderstorm development later on.

WEEKEND: As noted above, the highlight beyond this coming Thursday is the string of warm days ahead during the first week of February, at least until the 5th.


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Friday, January 24, 2014

Warm up to Begin Into Monday - Good Rain Chance Tuesday/Wednesday (?)

"Sunwise Skies" (Cape Canaveral , 24 Jan 2014) 

TODAY/NIGHT: Frontal boundary  (again!) has slid though with a westerly feed aloft advecting some higher clouds in with northerly surface winds, but they seem to be breaking up well this 2pm hour with none on the way upstream for a while. Highs today mainly in the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs and breezy especially near waterways with drier air below giving the air that whisper of winter feel. Otherwise, the nip-n-tuck tricky part for the next 72 hours will be timing of clouds in the mid-upper levels.  

TONIGHT/SATURDAY: It does not look like the immediate east coast (mainly east of US1 at least) will see a big temperature drop tonight due to north to NNE wind over night growing near calm  as the evening progresses to sunrise. A1A from the CAPE and south might remain in the lower or even some mid-50Fs tonight and much more even will be contingent on if clouds move in over night. Inland lows generally in the lower-mid 40Fs though some slivers of frost are always possible well inland. Otherwise, warmer on Saturday with a light westerly wind as the next front attempts to slide into the state with highs in the mid to even upper 60Fs  (or lower 70Fs far South Central). 

SUNDAY: Though a cool start to the day with a westerly land breeze in the morning for the coast, Sunday appears to be the warmest day we've had in a while now with highs into the lower-mid 70Fs, but again timing of cloud cover (or lack thereof) can't be promised one way or the other and that will to some extent determine just exactly how warm it will be on Sunday.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: The GFS is showing some signs of better news for those who would like the weather to warm up a bit. As of the last GFS run and the run before that one,  appears some 'height rises in the mid-upper levels" over the far Desert Southwest will buckle east, across, and through the Gulf and Florida, with the net effect of a not-so-certain next true cold frontal passage early/mid week next week. The last two GFS runs show in fact that next front to lay across Dead Central by Wednesday but with a hard time working south as northerly winds behind it are extremely shallow and westerly winds above that. Hence, we could be setting up for a fairly extensive 'over-running rain event' beginning Tuesday afternoon (far North Florida) working into Central overnight Tuesday or Wednesday and through the day. The GFS might be going over-board on the rainfall totals but even still, in association with  some form of that setup we should at least see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon and through the entire day Wednesday if not into Thursday, but at least it won't be cold with mainly 50Fs mornings and 60Fs afternoons and some 70Fs further south

" Liquid Gold "

LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: As of this afternoon, the GFS is showing extensive cloud cover and rain,  possibly heavy,  near or just south of I-4 eventually covering much of the state on Wednesday but that is a new one from previous runs. If this verifies which will be more clear in upcoming runs, rain chances are pretty much 80-100 percent on Wednesday. Guidance has been showing at least cloud cover though and spotty showers and maybe better rain chances near and north of I-4 fro several runs.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Again the GFS has shifted gears from a potentially very cold Friday/Saturday  to nothing special at all as the front clears with lows similar to this morning but with a fairly rapid transition to onshore winds meaning that NEXT Weekend and the following 2-4 days afterward remain much warmer than that of our recent days.

Latest GFS and a few runs before that has been showing the first 4-6 days of February to be running near or just above normal temperature wise with maybe even some very warm days stuck in there meaning highs in the mid-upper 70Fs if not maybe some inland lowers 80Fs after next weekend.

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Tuesday, January 21, 2014

"Colder Wednesday and Into The Weekend: Beyond?"

Cold Front to Descend Upon Central and South Florida Tonight,
"Winter Returns..Again"
TODAY: A cold front as of late morning is positioned as shown above over far NW Florida which will continue its southward plunge into Central Florida today and tonight and eventually through South Florida after midnight. There appears to be two prefrontal troughs of low intensity, like ripples before a wave,  ahead of the true boundary. The first could generate showers over Central Florida (mainly North Central) near I-4 much later today after 2pm through 6pm, which could enter  Dead Central, Central Direct, or the Latitudinal Center Line...however one wants to put it as well, but chances are better for some increasing cloud coverage . Though it is not breezy as of typing time, we could see it getting much breezier today from around 1pm - sunset and beyond.  The front will be in that location (Dead Central) near  10pm  after which time a wind shift from west-southwest or west to WNW-NW will gradually occur with increasingly dry and colder air and clearing skies being the sure sign of the front's passage accompanied by breezy conditions.

WEDNESDAY: Dry and 'cold' with a high in the lower 50Fs, very dry after midday   and decreasing wind as the day progresses under mainly sunny conditions. Temperatures will drop rapidly toward and after sunset Wednesday night as by then the driest air will be in place with little moisture to restrain heat escaping back into the atmosphere under already cooled grounds.

THURSDAY: Much colder in the morning and with little wind and a chance of inland frosts and maybe some freezing temperatures near and north of I-4. Only the A1A strip mainly Canaveral and south could get by without really noticing this colder morning of the two. A bit warmer in the afternoon with a high in the mid-upper 50Fs. (Note: in all regards colder temperatures the further north one goes from Dead Central, warmer as one heads to South Florida ). On Thursday night it appears another front could go through near midnight, therefore:...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Despite what i've seen advertised of late on media (which is not very often), it could end up being that FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY , one or some of those mornings, could yet be the coldest beyond even Thursday morning. The 'Polar Vortex" or what was referred to here in previous years as the James Bay Low (as it ends up) due to its proximity near or directly over James Bay,  combined with a relentless ridge over the far Western U.S remains in the lock-n-load position for intrusive outbursts of cold discontent, though not angry enough to bring  "the Roaring 20Fs" back to Central Florida for the most part, only on the calm and pristinely still silent mornings such as what occurred a few mornings ago in isolated select areas.

THEREFORE: Today is the warmest day the state in general will be caressing through the next 7-10 days for the most part. The GFS has been showing 'something' happening around the 26-28th time frame for over a week and now as that time approaches and model reliability one would hope would start to enter the picture approaches, the scene continues to change, but it is that time frame that appears to be the make or break point regarding how long the nonsensical will continue. Only a few days ago through early yesterday the end of winter appeared to be coming just in time for February, but the last two runs of the GFS are now spelling a different story. No significantly outrageous cold spells are being shown for Florida, just the normal-below normal, or that is to say only more of the same of what we've been experiencing which is below 'normal' either on the high temperature or low temperature end.

Florida Freeze around 1977. Image was taken late in the afternoon this day in January. See this link for January 18-19, 1977

There is a bit of a misnomer when it comes to 'normal' as seldom is  both the daytime 'normal high' and morning 'normal low' ever experienced on the same day over Florida in the true winter time frame.    For example, yesterday the highs were very close to 'normal' but the lows were at least 10F degrees below normal. In other cases, the reverse can be true and this is not accounting for cloud coverage days which further muddies the winter waters. Only when 'normalized' out and all averages taken into account over many many years of record keeping can the curve by generalized enough to come upon a new range of 'Normal", which is a bit misleading but 'generally helpful' in some regards for other reasons in no uncertain terms over an over-generalized climatological perspective which in another way tells us nothing if that makes any sense.

On this day last year the blog read : "In Summary: Although there are some changes in store, there is nothing significant in the upcoming week in regard to big rains or cold temperatures outside of what we've been experiencing the past 10 days. The trend continues until around the last 2 or 3 days of the month which is well beyond model reliability anyway. One could say, the point in making a blog post today is that there is no point in writing one when push comes to shove, other than to note that no big cold blasts or heavy storms are foreseen for quite some time in the current pattern (s) on tap "

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Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Cool Toward Cold, Thursday & Saturday (And Beyond?)

Sunrise  Morning

TODAY/TONIGHT: The first in a series of several  cold frontal passages over the next week to 10 days  is in the process as we speak, with the first boundary located over North Florida.  This front is expected to clear 'Central Exact' around 6-8PM with no fanfare. Any rainfall to occur over Central should be over by 4pm, and be sparse at that or at least fairly brief if so. Temperatures behind the boundary only drop slightly such that by morning it will still be mostly only cool out with upper 40Fs through 50Fs and maybe a 60F or so from the Cape and south. The best part about this boundary is that skies will clear somewhat behind it but we might still be dealing with high clouds all day Wednesday  with highs in the low to mid 60Fs for the most part.

THURSDAY: The next front is then expected to pass through Wednesday night around 2am. The latest GFS is showing STRONG cold air advection behind the boundary with seemingly normal bed time temperatures Wednesday night dropping hard and fast in the middle of the night with frontal passage in full swing at sunrise Central and north Florida. Guidance in the last GFS  run showed strong NNW winds especially at the beaches for the first half of Thursday , possibly gusting to 35 mph if not toward 40mph, with highs never getting out of the mid-upper 40Fs at that . That is a new development though , but be advised just in case especially coastal Volusia where near freezing temperatures might also occur early in the day. Winds then are forecast to drop off as the day proceeds.

FRIDAY: Again cold but not quite as cold. Another boundary will be approaching once again with reinforcements and another big drop in temperatures Friday night after a day time high in the low-mid 60Fs or upper 50Fs. 

SATURDAY: this morning now appears to be the coldest one on tap statewide this winter with freezing to near freezing temperatures well south to Southwest Florida and upper 30Fs over the Barrier Islands of Brevard if not colder. We will likely be hearing more regarding 'Frost Warnings and Advisories" as this set up will not be true  wind advection cold but to include radiational cooling  and drainage flow at night down the spine of the state. The immediate beaches are not usually as affected by such conditions for the most part, but this upcoming 10 days could prove to be an 'agricultural challenge' this image indicates.

Central Florida per this image has the honors of being the 'Most Below Normal"  in the temperature department for the entire country in the upcoming days ahead.

OUTSIDE OF THE COLD HEADLINES :  Cloud cover does not appear to be such a persistent issue  as noted in the previous post, and onshore Atlantic winds ...say goodbye to them too. Winds for quite some time will mainly be from the NNW-N or the West before each approaching cold front. The GFS shows no southerly winds at all for nearly 10 days at least..with a brief 2 day warm up before the next surge of cold air moves in about a week from now. But things change  we'll just have to see it out.

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Sunday, January 12, 2014

Good Rain Chances Overnight Monday into Tuesday, Possible Strong Storms

Clouds for Cold Front "Aloft" Pass Over Central Florida at Sunrise

THIS MORNING/TODAY: Cold front (very shallow) has completed passage as of earlier today over Central .  The front at 2000 feet (as opposed to ground level) crossed Central at sunrise and was easily discernible by a line of low stratocumulus clouds. Passage of this line was noted with a slight increase in NW winds and small temperature drop. The surface front was already well over South Florida at that time.  By shallow front is meant that not far above 2000 ft all indications are much different with SW winds still in place. High pressure which started out near Louisiana this morning will quickly translate east to east north east and exit the Georgia/South Carolina region tonight. Wind will swing from NW-N-NE-East during the day and tonight and by sunrise wind will be light ESE-SE at the beaches but remain very light. Overnight lows in the lower 50s to upper 40Fs well inland but the immediate beach from Cape Canaveral and South might have a slight rise in temperature after 3AM - 5AM time frame and end up at sunrise near 63-66F degrees as a result of the wind shifts overnight. Much warmer on Monday with a high in the mid 70Fs and winds from the south to south southwest.

TOMORROW: Though the air mass is quite dry now, some higher clouds might begin to stream in near sunset tonight (Sunday night) of little impact but more certainly on Monday. Meanwhile, an upper low is over old North Mexico right now but it will be moving east to east northeast in the next 36 hours to the northern  Central Gulf where it dampens out to a open wave , merging with the now persistent Deep Upper Trough associated loosely with the infamous  "Polar Vortex of media hype" which in previous posts has been referred to at times as being reflected by the  "James Bay Low". Energy from that system will merge and over - ride a bit of the tail end of the front that went through early today here, with weak cyclogenesis  low pressure commencing well south of the Mobile area which then will progress east to over or north of the I-4 overnight Monday night. 

There will a very small chance of isolated severe storms but more likely several strong storms mainly about 10 miles south of I-4 and north, with still some strong storms possible in the region noted in the below graphic. For Most of North Central and Central Florida this means any truly active weather would occur from near midnight through around 6AM Tuesday morning. It looks like the entire I-4 corridor has a 100 percent chance of rain unless something drastic changes in the outlook. There are notes in timing difference though, with the GFS model of which this forecast is based being faster than the European, so be advised that particularly for Central Florida the more active weather might be delayed until at least sunrise if not later. Time will tell.

Yellow line on South Florida shows where the 925mb 'cold front' was last seen quickly losing all identity. The orange and red lines show zones of strong to 'maybe' severe weather late Monday into Early Tuesday with a 100 percent chance of rain for some locations north of the orange line across Central Florida within that same time frame.

BEYOND: Frontal passage Tuesday followed by yet another SERIES of dry fronts mostly aloft for the next 4- 6 days. Say  "goodbye" to onshore winds off the Atlantic and quick warm ups. The Wind will swing from NW-N and back to NW for the most part from Tuesday on in to the following week. So far, Thursday morning appears could end up with some surprise Freezing Temperatures Central Florida and North though I'm seeing nothing about that on the wires yet. This event will not be quite as bad as the previous one but still expect on Thursday we might never get out of the lower-mid 50Fs and most days will never reach 70F or if so, only for a brief period into the beginning of the following week (except perhaps one day next weekend).

"2000 Ft Cold Front" went through This morning

EXTENDED CLOUD COVER OUTLOOK: One bright side though to the very cool to slightly below normal to near normal temperature outlook. It looks like the sun will be shining more often than not for a change and winds in general will be fairly light as well. So though it be much cooler now as we enter ( to my recollection ) the normally coldest time of year across East Central and South Florida, nothing highly unusually cold is foreseen as of yet, though it will get quite dry after Tuesday's early rains for an extended period of time. There is also a secondary cold period beyond Thursday/Friday that appears we could again be gambling with near freezing temperatures early next week. Looks like we're in it (winter) for the long haul now. But for how long is completely unknown at this point. 

Convective Rain-shower Over Gulf Stream Waters Saturday Afternoon

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Monday, January 6, 2014

Front on Schedule: Early Afternoon Passage, Plunge into Darkness

"Cold Front Rolling in on Schedule" 
TODAY: Only brief post necessary with a few cosmetic touch ups. Latest visible satellite animations and isotherm analysis shows the leading edge of the frontal zone honing in on and through North Central Florida this hour to be entering very close to a Cape Canaveral toward South Tampa bay line at 1pm, with the rope cloud along the front proper about 1 hour behind that (blue line below). The frontal zone will take a good 3 hours to truly complete its first stage of passage, the second stage will be the drying out phase and gradual clearing.

Therefore, expect a good 10F- 15F degree temperature drop in the first hour of  passage, then leveling off for another dip toward dark..but the greater dip will not be well until after 1AM tomorrow morning.

Frontal zone at 12:30PM EST Lays Across Central Florida,
Purple Indicates the much drier air

Interior Central will get near the 30-35F mark, with the immediate beaches east of US1 if not only the outer most barrier Islands south of the Cape never fully realizing the driest of air due to surrounding water influence which has not really cooled much this season. Mixing will create chilling conditions with the wind though, with wind  chills near  Breezy Frozen or "Brozen Conditions" by sunrise all areas, truly so inland north of Orlando and near it further south. The warmest zones will be east of the river ways though with a low from Canaveral and South AT the beaches in the 37-42F range (guessing at best though).. colder inland. Historically, very windy cold onsets have fairly uniform temperature spreads latitudinally speaking, but with the warmer water still this time of year, might see more of a spread than would normally be expected. Chance we'll see some temperature forecast busts this go around, better to play it safe than sorry.

TUESDAY: Low temperatures as noted with Freeze Warnings and Watches in place. Precautionary measures to be taken as advertised  on media outlets with special attention to pets and plants and extremities. Best way to dress in such conditions is layers with a wind resistant outer layer. Sky condition does not appear will be quite as bad as suppositioned in previous posts with mainly a thinner veil of high clouds, possibly resulting in filtered sun light with no low clouds during the day. 

Possible record low max temperatures will be set,  but not expecting to see any new low temperature records this go around. The cold spell 4 years ago was colder UNLESS we are in for a surprise temperature drop guidance is not showing.

WEDNESDAY: The warmest temperature on Tuesday at the immediate beaches will occur just before midnight Tuesday night, with slow warming through the night after a daytime high around 48F from the Cape and North, 50Fs further south. Wednesday sunrise might see a morning low near 58F along A1A but still much cooler the further west one is located especially from West side of Orlando down toward Sarasota or Punta Gorda. The immediate east coast will have already begun to warm up and won't see cold weather again for nearly a week. Highs Wednesday in the mid 60Fs then continued warming through Thursday into the Weekend. 

THURSDAY: Continued warming as the lower portions of the front returns to Central Florida and finally undergoes complete frontalysis and is absorbed into high pressure as another trough approaches. Chance of showers looks to be in the 40% range for now almost anytime after 10AM Thursday, but just exactly where is highly uncertain other than more likely south of I-4 . 

Possibly a record high might be in the offing for either Saturday or Sunday afternoons somewhere over the South Half of the state with highs into the low-mid 80Fs possible. hardly worth bothering breaking the mitts, scarves, mukluks and firewood out for this one.

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Sunday, January 5, 2014

Infamous Front Still on Tap for Monday, Possible Showers Today

Very Small Chance of mid-late afternoon showers East Central or
some increasing cloudiness into sunset time frame
TODAY: Ironically, it appears the post from Friday is more likely to come closer to reality than the one on Saturday as it is the GFS run on that day that is now verifying; therefore using a blend of that run plus current conditions yields increasing low level clouds SE Quadrant of state and possibly some showers as far north as Cape Canaveral up through sunset time frame beginning after 3pm  with highs in the mid 70Fs but warmer away from clouds. Very light winds all day.

TONIGHT: SW winds to develop over night will make for a somewhat cool 'land breeze morning' along the coast in the 60Fs most areas and moist, might need to watch from some morning fog or mist as cold front approaches but a quick warm up after sunrise.

MONDAY: GFS has been finagling between a 10AM or 1PM frontal passage the past 4 runs, but will stick with a 1PM time frame and possibly up it toward High Noon Dead Central. Giddy's coming with all barrels loaded and there's no stopping the caboose from pulling through station hauling a load of very dry air to arrive about 6 hours behind the Engine going by around 20-30 mph  with plenty of cargo cloud coverage. The warm start to the day will come upon the winds of this infamous system that all the presses are hollering about, and rightly so, but more so for folks further north. 

High temperatures Central and South could reach the lower through mid 70Fs prior to frontal passage (fropa) depending on the timing issue, but toward I-4 frontal passage will be going through regardless before any true daytime heating can   get started. Little to no rain expected with the front.  The temperature could fall a good 16-22 degrees across North Central - Central from 1pm through 4pm then level off a bit until around midnight with the first hour after fropa possibly as much as 17F degrees depending on the timing issue.

Image shows the possible cold front position Monday at 1PM per the latest  installment of the Global Forecast System (GFS) Model run.
Other runs have showed a similar position though at 10AM instead.
The 'boxed' number denotes the forecast temperature, based on the colored zones

TUESDAY: Temperatures falling more steadily after midnight with the dry dewpoint air now in place. Dew Points could be in the single digits portions of interior North Central to low double digits most other locations.  Hard Freeze possibly North and Western Volusia and into Lake, with a freeze possible toward the Orlando Metro area. There still remains the chance of some thin high cirrus or cirrus stratified type clouds making Tuesday a possibly grey-ish day ,  cold and breezy. Highs running the 40Fs gamut to the 50Fs for South Central portions and South Florida. Breezy from the NW all day around 18 mph gusting to near 30 mph but decreasing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY: Wind still appears  will begin to veer to a slight onshore component south of the Cape with a slow warming trend commencing after 2AM Canaveral and South early Wednesday morning. By sunrise temperatures should be running in the mid 50Fs if that is correct at the beaches, but if not, it would be significantly colder. 

Regardless, an onshore component wind  should be in full swing by mid morning with temperatures warming nearly a good 20F degrees by afternoon from that of Tuesday, but not as warm as those that will be in place prior to frontal passage on Monday.  Increasing coastal startocumulus clouds accompanying the onshore wind component but doubt will see any rain other than maybe a drop or tiny two on a windshield, should keep the high temperature restricted to the mid 60Fs range.

THURSDAY: Back to as if a front never went through at all as the tail end of Monday's front will have lifted to Central. Possibly a chance of showers and maybe even thunder (off shore) over the Gulf Stream waters. It appears the best chances for showers, some maybe heavy,  will be about the same areas noted in the first graphic above for today. 

Another front will be on the approach, but it is at this point where the GFS  begins to fall into fail mode most consistently. Still watching though for some form of severe weather or just plain heavy rainfall totals across the I-10 of the Deep South toward maybe even I-4, with less amounts further south.

Long range for now, and for what it is worth which usually isn't much, has been signaling no big freezes, but rather some prolonged very cool weather  instead as high pressure gets centered closer to FLorida than it has yet to do this entire winter. Time will tell.

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Saturday, January 4, 2014

Brittle Cold Monday Night / Tuesday Morning - Warm by Thursday

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY Nothing much knew from previous post as all has materialized as expected since the last post. By sunrise,  the east coast from the Cape and south had reached into the mid 60Fs whereas temperatures further inland and south such as near Okeechobee were the same as those locations along the east coast were yesterday morning, making for a good 15F degree temperature gradient or greater.

Low through mid-level clouds could be increasing across Central but little rainfall, though showing on radar, is actually reaching the ground , 'yet'.  The 'for lack of a better word' , pseudo warm front, created from an inverted coastal trough with warmer oceanic air behind it is sweeping across the state but should lose most of its identity across the far eastern gulf toward north Florida..and then return south as a 'pre-frontal trough on Sunday' with little affect as it seems now except mainly as rainfall over parts of South Florida and portions of South Central..smaller amounts possible to Central Florida later today and tonight.

YELLOW: "Warm Front" moving mainly west and north
BLUE: Cold front position on Monday at 1PM EST
  SUNDAY: Warmer in the morning and afternoon with a south wind at sunrise becoming more SW later in in the day. Suspect we will be receiving plentiful high clouds per the GFS at high temperatures will be held down just a bit IF SO into the mid-upper 70Fs with a few lowers 80Fs interior and South Florida.

MONDAY: Cold front to come bulldozing through with snow plows still  attached from NNW-SSE from late morning through early afternoon all Central from the hours of 11AM - 3PM. The above image is a guestimate position...thus, if you have some plans for Monday, "Get'r Done" By Noon, Ya Can't Be too Soon'...cause it's going to be about a 10-15F degree temperature drop the first hour the front goes through with increasing NW winds perhaps gusting about 30MPH through the night.

MONDAY NIGHT:TUESDAY Possible hard freeze warning for Northern Lake County/Northern Volusia but for the most part a standard Freeze warning might fit the bit to immediate interior Central for just a few hours. The latest GFS backed off on the depth and southward extent of the coldest air, but it's been bouncing around on that factor, so we'll just have to wait and see; however, I 'm seeing there is a chance that not only will it be colder on Tuesday, but overcast as well and windy...which means the high on Tuesday might never break the mid-40Fs if not lower 40Fs near I-4 , the good part though is that might mean some areas will be able to stay above freezing that would not other wise further South in Central Florida. And dry, very dry, with dew points possible in the single digits in some locations interior and north. That compared with the last front, most locations had dewpoints in the 30Fs range in general, but they will be much lower with this front making for bone breaking cold air.

"Cold front to come bulldozing through...."

The beaches of Central could be around the 36-42F mark Tuesday morning with NW winds around 20G 28 but still, it could be even colder. Highs most area in the 40Fs state wide with some 50Fs far south Florida.

WEDNESDAY: GFS has temperatures moderating overnight much like they did last night for the same locations (East Coast along A1A from the Cape and South), but whether that is too quick of a change over we'll have to wait and see, I suspect the true warm up might not commence until after sunrise. Otherwise, it'll be cold again Wednesday morning especially west of US1 with a sharp temperature gradient between the beaches to say for Example "Orlando"...continued high clouds with a much warmer high temperature tempered down again because of the 'possible' clouds which we'll see if that plays out or not.

BEYOND: Thursday is the first true warm day again (January 9th) with possible coastal showers and cloud cover again...seeing a theme here that has been repeating lately. Clouds.  No true cold front so far is forecast to go through for almost a week after the one on Monday, but one gets very close before going stationary and that is questionable. Still looks like toward the end of next week a severe weather even could be settng up for the I-10 corridor from  Louisiana east to Tallahassee area.  

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Friday, January 3, 2014

New Year's Day In Images


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