WEATHER MADE CLEAR FOR ALL TO HEAR

"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Last Day Of Warmer Air - Multiple "Hints" of Winter to Begin Tomorrow


Image: Panoramic view from the porch as rain showers approach from the south, paralleling the east Florida coast and crossing mainly the barrier islands.

SYNOPSIS: Weak low level forcing and a moisture flux divergence max exists right as I type over the eastern Cape south to Patrick Air Force Base over the barrier islands and brushing the US1 corridor as well. Showers are generating along the southern edge of greatest forcing near Sebastian inlet and passing mainly offshore, but making a brush with the Aloha County of Brevard.

Elsewhere, the storm system / cold front reponsible for multiple tornado reports (8) on mainly Lousiana and Mississippi is approaching the Florida Panhandle today as high pressure centered east of Florida continues to paddle further out into the great blue sea and away from the state.

As a result, surface and steering winds just above the surface will swing ever so slowly more torward the S-SSW today. Rain showers will continue to impact the barrier islands for the most part, but other parts of East Brevard are seeing the H20 as well falling from the moisture laden but somewhat whimpy clouds of little vertical extent just overhead.

TODAY: It is raining right now at my place at 9:05am, and has been off and on since daybreak. Most areas, like 90% of the county is not getting rain, and from a state perspective only about 3 percent of the entire state is getting rain....thus, if it is raining where you are now, trust me, that is not the case for the vast majority. As a matter of fact, the sky is almost down right nearly clear south of a line running from Sebastian Inlet to Sarasota.

Expect morning rains to continue right at the coast until noon time, then it gets tricky. The RUC model has been becoming more aggressive with not only increasing the rainfall, but also extending out in time how long it will last. AND, as of now and according to the last run, it' s not even supposed to be raining here yet ...not until 11am.\ (according to it). On the other hand, last night's mid-range models all showed the rain will end..and in fact, it has here right now. They show all rain to be over the remainder of daylight hours. I'm siding with that resolvement and believing that all areas will be good to go before noon with warmer temperatures by early afternoon in those areas with little to zero cloud coverage which e will be just about everywhere.

Foks between US1 - I95 and over toward Orlando should remain dry for the most part, as well as though over all of South Florida until later this afternoon at least (more likely to see rain down there over night tonight though, and very little of it at best).

Today will be the warmest day we will see on average for possibly well into December. So man your battle stations, we are going to be at war with Old Man Winter (albeit in a much sub-dued state) beginning sunset Wednesday and through the weekend. It won't be any colder though than what it was last time we got kind of 'cool' over 10 days ago though.

TONIGHT: Rain chances increase in areal coverage over the entire state as the front approaches, but any significant accumulations should be north of a Ft. Myers to Vero Beach line since the tail end (south end) of the front will be lacking even more in upper level dynamtic energy than what Central portions will be provided with. Any severe weather threat will be confined to the Panhandle region, although we could receive some thunder applause over night tonight should one particular storm get its 'act' together. But no one is going to be taking home an Emmy this time around.

WEDNESDAY: Front on the approach at day break after having already cleared all of NW Florida. It will start out cloudy with some light rain in the vicinity. Over night low in near 70F +/- three degrees pretty much everywhere under the blanket of evening clouds.

Now expect the front to cross east central Florida between the hours of 8AM to 1pm before it blasts on through South Florida by sunset. Rapid clearing behind the boundary and NW winds on its chilly heels begins the cold air advection pattern all night over night in Thursday morning and lingering into Saturday as well.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Pleasantly cool with sweater and jacket mornings and sun ray catching afternoons in whatever you wish to wear that makes you happy, uh...within legal reason..

NEXT WEEK: Veering winds bring a slight return to an onshore flow regime as the GFS now shows another system to cross about 1 week after the one coming up tomorrow.

It is this system that beaqrs watching from a 'very chilly weather' perspective. But for now, just watching...and praying "NOooooooooo".

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Monday, November 29, 2010

Cooler Air Mass is on the Way..But in the Meantime



Images: Latest KSC Sounding and radar image as of 6am showing rain along the coast

SYNOPSIS: As noted yesterday, a surface boundary (front) had pushed south of Central Florida but it has now lifted back to the north and now resides well to the north, bisecting the Panhandle. A richer in moisture content, as well as a deeper low level layer of atmospheric condenscing moisture, has taken residence across East Central Florida as a direct result of the boundary passing north and interacting with the 1000 ft boundary alluded to yesterday that had remained in place all day yesterday and into the midnight hour. When the two met up the rains started. As of 7AM my rain bucket has accumulated 0.70" of rain since about 3AM, and it now rains some more as I type.

Please note the KSC sounding shown in this post. It certainly appears it was launched in the rain with total saturation indicated up to nearly 10,000 feet. The radar image shown has looked much like this with minor variations over the entire over night hour. In fact, once the rain started in Cape Canaveral it hardly ever came to a complete and total stop with very very light sprinkles being the prevailing 'modus operandi'.

Elsewhere across the great U.S Expanse, a deep area of low pressure is centered over the Tornado State of Kansas near Topeka with a large area of high pressure to its east extending up and down the Mid Atlantic and SE States' Atlantic Coasts and over the Bahamas. Easterly flow in the low and mid -levels has set camp for the first part of the week until the next approaching weather producing system (not that they all don't produce some form or another of 'weather' so to speak) reaches the Florida Panhandle early Tuesday. This front will cross Central Florida Wednesday morning.

TODAY: With the presence of continued flux of low level moisture on the boot straps of a moderate east to ESE flow, moisture convergence could continue to occur throughout the day, most affecting the immediate coast from near West Palm north to eventually Daytona Beach. We might see a big let up in the rain proximity to the coast for a time from mid-late morning through early afternoon. But then something similar to our early morning rain-showers could once again begin by 2pm and continue into the over night hours and into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will be a little cooler along the coast due to cloud coverage and our onshore wind component, whereas inland and from West Palm South it could be warmer with less clouds and no moisture convergence or suface moisture flux divergence being such a critical factor as they are further north over Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties.

TUESDAY: Similar to today in all ports of call for the most part. Just exactly when it will rain is hard to say...but could be any time. For instance, at this VERY moment it suddenly started to pour pretty hard at 7:52AM. Who woulda thunk it? One look at radar tells the story though.

But it gets tricky. I'll bet now the coastal rainshower activity will end overnigh ronight as surface winds begin to parallel the coast, preventing 'shower landfall' syndrome (SLS). Therefore, the Tuesday sunrise should dawn partly cloudy.

Believe we will see a pre-frontal trough take shape during the day especially with good heating over the land area (the peninsula). As such, the heaviest of rains (of that which will fall somewhere), will be with the prefrontal trough and not the front proper. Might even see a thunderstorm of very isolated nature late Tuesday afternoon, but any threat of wide spread thunderstorms does not appear to be in the cards quite yet, but we'll see. These prefrontal troughs sometimes get a mind of their own it would seem.

WEDNESDAY MORNING:The actual front it now appears will be on the approach across Pad 39A at precisely 7:14:35 and 1 nanoseconds....A.M. Eastern Standard Time. Set your watch.

It will clear the region quickly during the day and be followed by much drier NW winds (flow) and clearing skies.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Very nice with cool morning low temperatures in the low-mid 50s along the coast and afternoons gradually warming, but not by much to near normal highs in the mid-upper 70s after struggling to break 72F Thursday and Friday. The best day for kite boarding appears will be Late Wednesday and Thursday Afternoon. Winds will die down considerably by the weekend. Hard to say which will be the nicer of the two days, Saturday or Sunday; we should all have such conundrums in life, no?

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Sunday, November 28, 2010

1000 Feet With a Front Overhead



RECAP: The cold front manage to slide through the peninsula yesterday for the most part right at the surface level, but just a 1000 feet aloft where winds parallel the jet stream the front remains at this time directly over Central Florida. You can see from the attached images that the dew point temperature gradient is pretty steep with upper 20s - mid 30s in actual temperature over the panhandle and 70s over the south. Our morning low along the coast was in the mid 60s and warmer than inland around Orlando. Most pronounced is the graphic showing the drier air to the north. The sounding shows how the winds aloft switch almost right overhead at 9500 feet. and that it is within a below that critical point where most of the moisture resides.

TODAY: Front aloft will remain nearly in place as the parent low pressure system well off to the NNW\E moves away from the United States. The front will pull off to the east and weaken as a strong but fast moving high pressure zone moves toward the Carolinas to our north, placing the state in an ENE-E wind regime of the somewhat moist type due to mixing.

The result will be a relatively moist air mass being advected into the coast from the east ...partly due to mixing of differential moisture boundaries aloft and the temperature of the warmer ocean waters from hence the wind will blow. Partly cloudy to sometime cloudy and maybe even some showers after 2:00pm.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much the same as winds veer more ESE - SE on Tuesday and the boundary pulls away. Another, stronger front will be on the way for Wednesday morning. But until that time arrives, the state will remain with a chance of rain showers more likely on Tuesday than today or Monday. Moderated afternoon and evening temperatures due to the ocean's influence combined will clouds will keep the east coast within a 10 degree range of variability between morning lows and afternoon highs. Showers off and on, some could be moderate by later Monday or Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: The front will be at the door around sunrise Wednesday and will clear Central Florida by late afternoon. Rain chances until the front gets south of about Vero Beach will remain...after which, by late Wednesday the clouds will break as temperatures remain cool. Wednesday may see little change between the temperature at sunrise versus that which it will attain by 2pm. So far, it does not look like this next cold front will be all too bad, but we'll know it as morning sweaters and evening jackets will fit the apparent, apparel bill well.

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Saturday, November 27, 2010

My Morph Into Travis Tritt



Your Forecast today will be brought to you by Travis Tritt. If viewing this from an email you might need to go to the blog on line itself to see the transformation

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Friday, November 26, 2010

Another Warm" Day Afte"r or 'Black Friday"



Image: Memories of another Thanksgiving fade as the weather engines keeps on rolling.

As you can see by the image included in today's post, a cold front is about to enter the Florida. This system is being sustained over the N. Ohio Valley by a 140kt jet stream. Locally, the final remnants of high pressure will be pulling of Eastern Florida during the mid-late morning as the front very slowly approaches in a much weakened state, much like the turkey shown above. It will be a turkey of a front for sure.

TODAY: The front will remain north and west of Tampa-Melbourne line and everywhere south of there today as it makes only slow progress and begins to parallel the jet stream. Moisture will be increasing as the high pressure area over East Central Florida pulls out. Clouds will be generated by both the moisture, winds aloft, and the warmer than normal temperatures from day time heat.

We may seem some breaks in the clouds throughout the day and about the time the high fully pulls out, but believe that will be short lived as heating of the day will by that time begin to be reaching its peak. Thus, we could see more clouds by mid afternoon, earlier further west one goes. Rain chances are possible along the west side of the state first, but will spread (the chances that is) east to the east coast by 4PM. They will generally be light to moderate in strength where they do occur. There is close to zero dynamics and lift here today, as such not really expecting anything worse than maybe an ocassional distant thunder at worst. Winds will be noticeably from the SW all day long. Afternoon high will likely be in the low 80s.

TOMORROW: The front will pass Central Florida proper shortly after sunrise and will be followed by NW winds at 15-22mph through the early afternoon before they start to veer and weaken by late day under partly-mostly cloudy skies. The low tonight should remain near 70 degrees ahead of the front and under cloud coverage, spotty at times. Slight chance of rain continues at a low end through much of the day as the front will be slow to clear South Central-South Florida entirely.

SUNDAY: Winds continue to swing aroudn toward the NE-ENE and finally East advecting low level moisture above the surface of the warmer air generated just above the ocean's surface near the coast. As such, might see a coastal shower from the Cape and everywhere south to Miami.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Winds quickly veer more toward the S-SSW Tuesday ahead of yet another and stronger frontal system. Just exactly how great the affect will be from this system beginning over night Tuesday into Wednesday is somewhat up for grabs. But it does appear the rain chances wil be much greater with it, as will the temperatures be appreciably cooler behind it. We'll meet the turn in the bend as we approach it heading into the first week of December.

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Thursday, November 25, 2010

Giving Thanks For Warm Weather Continuation In Florida

(Image: Guinea Hen)
Happy Thanksgiving Day!!

TODAY: High pressure moving off the U.S. east coast is yielding over night winds from the east along the immediate coasts well before sunrise. Expect these to die down some though before sunrise. Regardless, a very mild morning is in the works with a nicely warm Thanksgiving Day under widely scattered cloud conditions to prevail. Enjoy!

FRIDAY: Decaying cold front, at least on its southern tail end will be entering the Panhandle Friday as it oozes south in an every weakening state of affairs on its Central and South Florida approach. It will remain warm, but a better chance of clouds may inhibit temperatures from getting as warm as they otherwise could with a nice SW wind prevailing all day long. Chance of showers increases by early afternoon as the front enters North Central Portions of the state...mainly north of a Vero Beach to Tampa Bay line. Likelihood of showers slowly inches up a few percentage points by late in the day and through/over night.

SATURDAY: More clouds continue as the front makes its pass over Central Florida Proper sometime in the late morning to early afternoon. Little impact other than a wind shift, slightly cooler air, but continuing the clouds all day with rain-showers remaining into the evening. Not an all out rain affair by any stretch of the imagination. Just a very small chance at that in fact. But any little bit would help.

SUNDAY: Clouds and showers clear out a little bit; however, the chance of onshore moving rain-showers once again develops much like it was like on Monday. Temperatures in the afternoon from Sunday on remain in the upper 70s along the coast to near 80 well inland.

NEXT FRONT: Right now, a more potent front is being portrayed to emerge into our picture around the Wednesday time frame as was noted on Tuesday's post. This one looks like it will over all be a more of a weather maker across the boards, but not a full out winter blast as previously feared in my post the other day. But the change in temperatures will noticeably be greater than what we'll have with the Friday/Saturday system described above.

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Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Mild Weather Into the First Week of December (?) !!

Image: It has been said that cats have built in weather barameters. Hopefully StormChaser shown above is not 'seeing' something we'd not like to see...(brrrr...)

SYNOPSIS: Surface high pressure over Florida and into the Atlantic is holding fast, just as it did all summer. Gradually deepening trough of low pressures is taking place over the western and central portions of the country, and this general trend it now appears will continue for the next week with minor perturbations creating some forecast problems for folks in those parts.

TODAY: Mild and warmer with only intermittent periods of partly cloudy skies, but for the most part it's starting to look sunnier today than the past few days of recent times. As such, afternoon high temperatures will reach 80 degrees away from the immediate coast (at least) with no chance of rain north of a Vero Beach or Ft. Pierce to Sarasota line.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Cold front approaches from the west but High Pressure holds its ground in a most self-assured state of affairs. What previously looked would be a relatively (compared to recent weeks) strong passage of a cold front now appears to have little bearing on the weather for Central and South Florida at all. The finer details will be closely monitored as the days approach in a more realistic fashion, but for now no big deal weather to come this way for quite a while. Looks like the weakened front will pass over in almost a totally decayed state, providing for some clouds and maybe some on-shore falling ocean showers in its wake once the easterly component winds become re-established.

- THANKSGIVING: Nice and warm and no rain other than some light showers - warm

WHENS A BIG CHANGE TO COME: At this point, it appears the ridge will hold fast over Central and South Florida into the first week of December. Over night low temperatures will be dictated by the surface wind direction, speed, and amount of cloud cover during these days to come. But all in all, completely sane temperature wise so no need to break out the quilt (again) or ski masks unless you plan to rob a bank.

At this time, it appears that a big change in temperatures could occur as all the cold air to the west and north of Florida finally sinks south as the high pressure weakens, but this would be into the first week of December. Now is the time to prepare for the inevitable arrival of winter. But maybe, just maybe, it might never really arrive . Never happen of course.

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Monday, November 22, 2010

Final Portion of a Tornado Story


Image: RARE photo of a tornado in Conway, Arkansas from the book "Weather Made Clear", 1965, A taken on April 11, 1945. I LOVE this picture!

In a previous post I stated it would be my late post about the story, but due to little weather through Thanksgiving other than weather like Saturday and Sunday I decided to conclude our talk of intrigue, as written below. The weather today will be a bit breezy and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with a continued chance of an ocean rainshower, but for the most part should be a little nicer than Sunday as I think the 'worst' is over. VERY WARM on Thanksgiving day with a high in the low to mid 80s and partly cloudy skies. Very very little chance of rain.

Here is the last segment:
There came a tremendous jar, the floor slid
viciously under my feet, and I was almost thrown down. My hat, which I had not
removed,was yanked off my head, and all around objects flashed upward.
I sensed that the roof of the house was gone.As I gained footing another
jarring wham caught me,and I found myself on my back over in the fireplace,
and the west wall of the room right down on top of me. The "whams" were
just that. Instead of being blown inward with a rending crash of timbers, as
one would expect of a cyclonic wind, the side of the room came in as if driven
byone mighty blow of a gigantic sledgehammer. One moment the wall stood.The
next it had been demolished. The destruction had been so instantaneous that I
retained no memory of its progress.
I was standing, and then I was down, 10 feet away. What happened between, I
failed to grasp or to sense.
By a quirk of fate I was not seriously injured, and as soon as I had my
senses about me I clawed up through the wreckage, and crawled around and
through the hole where the east door had been. I could tell by the bluish
white light that the roof and ceiling of this room were gone also. I almost
ran over my four-year-old daughter, who was coming to see about me.
Grabbing her up I was instantly thrown down on my side by a quick side-shift
of the
floor. I placed her face down, and leaned above her as a protection against
flying debris and falling walls.I knew the house had been lifted from its
foundation, and feared it was s being carried through air.
Sitting, facing southward, I saw the wall of the room bulge outward and go
down. I saw it go, and felt the shock, but still there was no sound.
Somehow, I could not collect my senses enough to crawl to the small, stout
back room, six feet away, and sat waiting for another of those pile-driver
blasts to sweep the rest of the house away.
After a moment or so of this, I became conscious that I was looking at my
neighbor's house, standing unharmed 100 feet to the south. Beyond I could
see
others, apparently intact. But above all this, I sensed a vast relief when I
saw that we were still on the ground. The house had been jammed back against
trees on the east and south and had stopped, partly off its foundation.
The period of relief I experienced,however, was a very short one. Sixty feet
south of our house something had billowed down from above, and stood fairly
motionless, save a slow up-and down pulsation. It presented a curved face,
with the concave part toward me,with a bottom rim that was almost level, and
was not moving either toward or away from our house. I was too dumbfounded
for a second, even to"I was looking far up the interior of a great tornado
funnel. . .it. . .seemed to be partly filled with a bright cloud,which
shimmered like a fluorescent light."
I tried to fathom its nature, and then it burst on my rather befuddled brain
with a paralyzing shock. It was the
lower end of the tornado! I was looking at its inside, and we were, at the
moment,within the tornado itself!
The bottom of the rim was about 20 feet off the ground, and had doubtless a
few moments before destroyed our house as it passed. The interior of the
funnel was hollow: the rim itself appearing to be not over 10 feet in
thickness and, owing possibly to the light within the funnel, appeared
perfectly
opaque. Its inside was so slick and even that it resembled the interior of a
glazed standpipe. The rim had another motion which I was, for a moment,too
dazzled to grasp. Presently I did. The whole thing was rotating shooting past
from right to left with incredible velocity.
I lay back on my left elbow, to afford the baby better protection, and
looked up. It is possible that in that upward
glance my stricken eyes beheld something few have ever seen before and lived
to tell about. I was looking far up the interior of a great tornado funnel!
It extended upward for over a thousand feet, and was swaying gently, and
bending slowly toward the southeast.
Down at the bottom, judging from the circle in front of me, the funnel was
about 150 yards across. Higher up it was larger, and seemed to be partly
filled with a bright cloud, which shimmered like a fluorescent light. This
brilliant cloud was in the middle of the funnel, not touching the sides, as
I recall having seen the walls extending on up outside the cloud.
Up there too, where I could observe both the front and back of the
funnel,the terrific whirling could be plainly seen. As the upper portion of
the huge pipe swayed over, another phenomenon took place. It looked as if
the whole column were composed of rings or layers, and when a higher ring
moved on toward the southeast, the ring immediately below slipped over to
get back under it. This rippling motion continued on down toward the lower
tip.
If there was any debris in the wall of the funnel it was whirling so fast I
could not see it. And if there was a vacuum inside the funnel, as is
commonly
believed, I was not aware of it. I do not recall having any difficulty
inbreathing, nor did I see any debris rushing up under the rim of the
tornado,as there surely would have been had there been a vacuum. I am
positive that the shell of the twister was not composed of wreckage, dirt or
other debris. Air, it must have been, thrown out into a hollow tube by
centrifugal force. But if this is true, why was there no vacuum, and why was
the wall opaque?
When the wave-like motion reached the lower tip, the far edge of the funnel
was forced downward and jerked toward the southeast. This edge, in
passing,touched the roof of my neighbor' s house and flicked the building
away like a flash of light. Where, an instant
before, had stood a recently constructed home, now remained one small room
with no roof. The house, as a whole, did not resist the tornado for the
fractional part of a second. When the funnel touched it, the building
dissolved, the various parts shooting off to the left like sparks from an
emery wheel.
The very instant the rim of the funnel passed beyond the wreck of the
house,long vaporous-appearing streamers,pale blue in color, extended out and
upward toward the southeast from each corner of the remaining room. They
appeared to be about 20 feet long and six inches wide, and after hanging
perfectly stationary for a long moment, were suddenly gone.
The peculiar bluish light was now fading, and was gone abruptly. Instantly
it was again dark as night. With the darkness my hearing began to come back.
I could hear the excited voices of my family in the small backroom, six feet
away, and the crunching jars of heavy objects falling around the house. The
tornado had passed. There the edge was doubtless high off the
ground and went over without doing any damage. Quickly, real daylight
commenced to spread in the wake of the storm, and how good it did look!
And how astonishing! I had come to believe, in those few long minutes, that
the tornado had struck in the nighttime.
It was now about 3:06 p.m.Luck was with us that day. The only injuries
sustained by the family were a severe gash in my boy's arm and a scalp wound
on my own head. The rest of the district did not fare so well. The tornado
cut a swath through the southern part of the city, killing and wounding
upward of a hundred people, and doing property damage of over five million
dollars.
Hope you all enjoyed this.

1 comment:

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Unexcitingly, Unenthusiastic Weather Underway



Image: Sunrise Panorama Photograph Taken This Morning

Nothing much really to write about so we can leave this one short and sweet. High pressure in the mid levels almost directly overhead at 6000 ft and just to the NNE above that is producing weak subsidence in a somewhat dry atmospheric environment other than in a shallow layer from the surface to about 7K (0-7000 feet). Above that altitude, the winds are from the WNW advecting a much drier air layer overhead. At the surface, high pressure is over eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.

TODAY: Continued east wind with gradually increasing, though shallow, moisture will swallow us whole today. The net result will be advection of a modified marine layer across the state and comfortable afternoon temperatures. Clouds will come in off and on in patches and an isolated rain shower could make landfall anywhere from Daytona to South Beach Miami/Dade area, but the greatest likelihood of precipitation appears to be from Ft. Pierce to Cape Canaveral from 1pm -8pm. However, should this even occur, it will be a short and only light duration...although a brief moderate rain could fall from the utmost, heaviest of clouds. With "should" "could" or perhaps "would" (of desire) be stressed. Overall though, rain free.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Same deal as far as winds and temperatures goes. Highs near 80 and lows near 60, with winds slowly weakening and veering more southeasterly throughout this time frame. Rain could occur at any time, unlike a summer pattern when we have the afternoon thunderstorm variety type rainfall.

THANKSGIVING DAY: Partly cloud and quit warm with a high in the low to mid 80s. A cold front will be across the Panhandle by morning but will have little direct impact as far as rain chances goes.

FRIDAY: Best chance for rain anytime frame, particularly from sunrise-5pm. NW winds will be fast of the heels of the passing cold front Friday night as it blasts on through South Florida by shortly after sunset. Rain chances will then end with lows falling into the mid-50s. Not really that big a deal.

NEXT WEEKEND: Air mass begins to modify once again with temperatures returning to seasonable norms.

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Friday, November 19, 2010

No Big Temperature Cool Down 'Til After Thanksgiving

(Image: High pressure dominates the eastern U.S. Coast today and tomorrow (except parts of Maine). Shown is the NAM based forecast for this afternoon, indicating an ENE breeze off of gradually modifying waters of the Atlantic to overspread the state from the east. Florida and the extreme SE U.S. stays high and dry as parts of the state remains in drought).

TODAY: High pressure has built down the entire U.S. East coast (other than parts of Maine) as a second cold front cleared the state late yesterday. Skies cleared rapidly over Central Portions around 12-1pm as the front moved south and north winds picked up a tick or two. Such will be the case today as well as winds veer more toward the NE-ENE and weaken a small bit within an hour or two after sunset. It will be a nice night for a rocket launch, if it can permissibly make the lift off no holds barred.

TONIGHT - SATURDAY: A mild night overall tonight with maybe a few clouds. Light ENE-E winds will gradually moisten the lowest levels of the atmosphere so that with full day light we could see considerably more clouds than what will be present today. Heck, by later in the afternoon we could see an isolated coastal sprinkle over any Eastern side city, but they should be wide spread if at all existent.

SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY: East winds and mild afternoon temperatures. Lows in the low-mid 60s right at the coast and cooler inland with afternoon highs just below or at 80F degrees. It should be noted at this point that the NAM model is painting a possibly wet period for Brevard and Indian River Counties on Saturday, but as always seems to be the case, this is probably well over done. So in essence, the weather will be pretty much the same old status quo of past days of recent times with a sprinkle possible. We'll have to be watching this though.

SUNDAY-THANKSGIVING: No cold fronts. Just a continued marine-influenced type pattern with mildly cool nights and pleasantly warm afternoon temperatures with chances of rain decreasing even more Monday-Wednesday. Thanksgiving looks like it will be pretty nice, with maybe some marine stratocumulus.

There could be a big change in store for the days following Thanksgiving Thursday. Meaning, a prolonged period of very cool weather after one day of decent rain chances. We can nail down the details though as that time draws nigh.

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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Part IV - INSIDE THE TORNADO FUNNEL ! ! !


See the entire story so far by referring back to previous posts. In promise to Weatherwise, I am not posting the entire tale; therefore, this will be the last post. But in closing (but please read below), Capt. Hall did see the lower lip of the funnel tip the house next door and it instantly disentigrated. He estimated the winds to be 1000 mph (not a typo). Okay, here we go, inside the tornado funnel itself!!

COMPLETION:

As I gained footing another jarring

wham caught me, and I found myself

on my back over in the fireplace, and

the west wall of the room right down on

top of me. The "whams" were just

that. Instead of being blown inward

with a rending crash of timbers, as one

would expect of a cyclonic wind, the

side of the room came in as if driven by

one mighty blow of a gigantic sledge

hammer. One moment the wall stood.

The next it had been demolished. The

destruction had been so instantaneous

that I retained no memory of its progress.

I was standing, and then I was

down, 10 feet away. What happened

between, I failed to grasp or to sense.

By a quirk of fate I was not seriously

injured, and as soon as I had my senses

about me I clawed up through the

wreckage, and crawled around and

through the hole where the east door

had been. I could tell by the bluishwhite

light that the roof and ceiling of

this room were gone also. I almost ran

over my four-year-old daughter, who

was coming to see about me. Grabbing

her up I was instantly thrown down on

my side by a quick side-shift of the

floor. I placed her face down, and

leaned above her as a protection

against flying debris and falling walls.

I knew the house had been lifted

from its foundation, and feared it was

being carried through air. Sitting, facing

southward, I saw the wall of the

room bulge outward and go down. I

saw it go, and felt the shock, but still

there was no sound. Somehow, I could

not collect my senses enough to crawl

to the small, stout back room, six feet

away, and sat waiting for another of

those pile-driver blasts to sweep the

rest of the house away.

After a moment or so of this, I became

conscious that I was looking at my

neighbor's house, standing unharmed

100 feet to the south. Beyond I could see

'~ .. something had billowed

down from above, and stood

fairly motionless, save for a

slow up-and-down pulsation

.we were . . . inside the

tornado itself!"

others, apparently intact. But above all

this, I sensed a vast relief when I saw

that we were still on the ground. The

house had been jammed back against

trees on the east and south and had

stopped, partly off its foundation.

The period of relief I experienced,

however, was a very short one. Sixty

feet south of our house something had

billowed down from above, and stood

fairly motionless, save a slow up-anddown

pulsation. It presented a curved

face, with the concave part toward me,

with a bottom rim that was almost

level, and was not moving either

toward or away from our house. I was

too dumbfounded for a second, even to

try to fathom its nature, and then it

burst on my rather befuddled brain

with a paralyzing shock. It was the

lower end of the tornado! I was looking

at its inside, and we were, at the moment,

within the tornado itself!

The bottom of the rim was about 20

feet off the ground, and had doubtless

a few moments before destroyed our

house as it passed. The interior of the

funnel was hollow: the rim itself appearing

to be not over 10 feet in

thickness and, owing possibly to the

light within the funnel, appeared perfectly

opaque. Its inside was so slick

and even that it resembled the interior

of a glazed standpipe. The rim had another

motion which I was, for a moment,

too dazzled to grasp. Presently I

did. The whole thing was rotating,

shooting past from right to left with incredible

velocity.

I lay back on my left elbow, to afford

the baby better protection, and looked

up. It is possible that in that upward

glance my stricken eyes beheld something

few have ever seen before and

lived to tell about. I was looking far up

the interior of a great tornado funnel!

It extended upward for over a thousand

feet, and was swaying gently, and

bending slowly toward the southeast.

Down at the bottom, judging from the

circle in front of me, the funnel was

about 150 yards across. Higher up it

was larger, and seemed to be partly

filled with a bright cloud, which shimmered

like a fluorescent light. This

brilliant cloud was in the middle of the

funnel, not touching the sides, as I

recall having seen the walls extending

on up outside the cloud.

Up there too, where I could observe

both the front and back of the funnel,

the terrific whirling could be plainly

seen. As the upper portion of the huge

pipe swayed over, another phenomenon

took place. It looked as if the

whole column were composed of rings

or layers, and when a higher ring

moved on toward the southeast, the

ring immediately below slipped over to

get back under it. This rippling motion

continued on down toward the lowertip.

If there was any debris in the wall of

the funnel it was whirling so fast I

could not see it. And if there was a

vacuum inside the funnel, as is commonly

believed, I was not aware of it. I

do not recall having any difficulty in

breathing, nor did I see any debris

rushing up under the rim of the tornado,

as there surely would have been

had there been a vacuum.

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Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Tornado Account - Part III (Courtesy of Weatherwise)


Drops of water were hitting my face

across the room. I tried to assure her.

"That gust always comes ahead of a

rainsquall," I shouted.

But there was no abatement in the

deafening hubbub outside. I know it

was growing in intensity by the second,

and-realized that a tornado was

right on us. I yelled in my wife's ear:

"Everybody in the back room: Get

under the bed!"

'~ .. the side offhe room

came in as if driven by one

mighty blow of a gigantic

sledge hammer."

Under a foolish impulse I jumped to

the south window for a last look outside

before following the family. As I did so

the overhead light went off (3:04 p.m.,

as shown later by our electric clock).

Between the flashes of lightning it was

as dark as midnight, but by shielding

my eyes I could see somewhat. I saw

that my neighbor's house across the

vacant lot was standing, but trees and

shrubbery out that way were flattened

almost to the ground. From the course

the planks, sheet-iron, and other debris

took as they 'flailed over the lot, I saw

that the wind was from due west. It

was a grim perspective, but out of it all

I gathered a bit of hope.

The wind was from the west! It

should have been from the south. While

a tornado, as a whole, moves generally

eastward, the funnel itself rotates

counterclockwise, and the west wind

indicated that we were in the southern

edge of the twister. It, apparently, was

passing just north of us. And too, the

vivid lightning and rending crashes

were passing on and there was now a

decided lull in the screeching roar

outside.

And then very suddenly, when I was

in the middle ofthe room, there was no

74 Weatherwise

noise of any kind. It had ceased exactly

as if hands had been placed over my

ears, cutting off all sound, except for

the extraordinary hard pulse beats in

my ears and head, a sensation I had

never experienced before in my life.

But I could still feel the house tremble

and shake under the impact of the

wind. A little confused, I started over

to look out the north door, when I saw

it was growing lighter in the room.

The light, though, was so unnatural

in appearance that I held the thought

for a moment that the house was on

fire. The illumination had a peculiar

bluish tinge, but I could see plainly. I

saw the window curtains lying flat

against the ceiling, and saw loose

papers and magazines packed in a big

wad over the front door. Others were

circling about the room, some on the

floor and others off it. I came out of my

bewilderment enough to make a break

for the back of the house.

But I never made it. There came a

tremendous jar, the floor slid viciously

under my feet, and I was almost thrown

down. My hat, which I had not removed,

was yanked off my head, and

all around objects flashed upward. I

sensed that the roof of the house was

gone.

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Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Cold Approaches and Tornado Tale (Part 2) Continues...


HOME SPUN FORECAST: Warm today, in the low 80s with a SW breeze and a few more clouds. A cold front is approaching the Panhandle region today and will be on our doorstep Wednesday noon time. Should be passing through East Central Florida during the late afternoon or early evening under mostly cloudy skies, with maybe a rain shower or two. Otherwise, little impact with a return back to normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.

"TORNADO TALE" CONTINUATION- Part 2 - A True Story:

The west wind was changing, and in matter of a few seconds it had changed,and was blowing, undiminished, from the southeast toward the cloud. Lightning, the most fearful I have ever seen,

'~ .. then very suddenly, . . .

there was nonoise of any kind

...exceptforthe ex.troordlnary

hard pulsebeats In my ears

and head."

and wide as a house, flashed with some regularity between the scud-cloud and the ground.

In the comparative stillness following the terrific thunder crashes I couldhear a sustained hollow roaring, like a distant freight train. Feeling my wife's eyes on my face I said, "Sounds likeheavy hail." But it wasn't hail. She knew it wasn't, and I did too. You can't feel the sound of hail vibrating the air against your ear drums, norpulsating it against your face. This was a new sound, one we had never heard before.

The low, deadly looking scud-cloud was right on us now. and I could see no sign of a tornado funnel this side of the greenish rain. But it was there, and my wife knew it was there. I told her to go in and take the children. We had no storm cellar, but, had there been a tornado showing, we could have gotten into the car and run out of its path.

Now, we had to take a chance on it missing us. It was behind the rain, without question; I had seen them thatway. In another minute the low cloud passed close overhead, and the dusk of early evening enveloped us. I turned to go in, and as I went up the porch steps hailstones the size of tennis balls began falling on the house and in the yard.

These made my heart sink, for they almost invariably fall in the forefront of a tornado. They came down sparsely, one on about each square yard, but they made a most hideous bang and clatter, and I knew some of them were going all the way through our shingled roof. We all went into the west bedroom.

Lightning was striking all around the house now, adding its horror to the fast-rising din. As my wife snapped on the overhead light, a gust of wind and rain hit the west wall of the room with a crash. My wife was pointing to the west wall. "The wall's blown in!" She had to scream to make herself heard. I could see that it had slipped inward six inches or more at the ceiling, and was vibrating under the wind pressure.....TO BE CONTINUED....

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Monday, November 15, 2010

Inside the Storm of May 4, 1948 (McKinney, Texas) - Part I

Retired Army Captain Roy S. Hall was sitting placidly in his back yard with his wife on the warm afternoon of May 3, 1948. He had noticed several small thunderstorms muttering and grumbling in the southwest but had given them little attention. His wife remarked that the wind was blowing from the south at about 25 mph and was exerting a steady pressure against the leaves of the nearby trees. A short time later Captain Hall was surprised to hear a loud clap of thunder.  Looking to the west, he noticed that a      huge, very black cloud obscured the entire horizon.  Below this was a feathery roll cloud characteristic of those which precede thunderstorms. Behind the roll cloud he could catch glimpses of a solid curtain of dark green rain.  The air appeared very humid and the temperatures was about 85F. In graphic terms, Captain  Hall in the magazine Weatherwise described what was to follow:
 

When I stepped off the front porch

one of those little thunderheads . . .

wasn't little any more, but spanned the

western sky, black as ink, less than

western sky, black as ink, less than

three miles away. And right across its

nearer rim, low, very low, a mile-long

scud-cloud was sliding along. It was

moving swiftly eastward, and the

whole cloud had done something I had

never heard of before. It had made a

right-angle turn in the sky and was cutting

across the wind current which

definitely had not slackened. I went to

the porch and yelled for my wife.

I did not know she had come out, till

she spoke and scared me. "You sounded

urgent, so I hurried the children out ...

Oh!" She had seen the storm for the

first time. "What a terrible cloud!" I

looked around and saw our four children

standing on the porch. She said

nothing further for the moment, but I

felt her hand touch my arm in a muted

question.

The squall, which was now about two

miles away, was coming directly toward

us, and the scud-cloud stretched across

its front between 400 and 500 feet above

the earth, was revolving as if it were being

pushed in reverse along the ground.

Behind the scud-cloud a curtain of

dark, green rain was falling in a solid,

opaque wall.

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