"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, August 28, 2016

Large Rainfall Totals Possible Into Thursday - Watching Tropics Early September

Sunday Morning - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Invest 99L  near the Florida Straits appears to be a rather large area of 'interest' though a small circulation area seems to be evident on visible satellite animations near the Keys but the better chance of there being a circulation appears to be near the North Coast of Cuba. The area appears to be moving west and all model guidance suggests a slow drift toward the WNW-NW and eventually North in the next 24-60 hours. How far west it goes is one question before beginning a turn as well as what happens once it does.  Any wind threat appears to be minimal with the bigger 'interest' as far as today's post goes being rainfall totals. Not to say things could change but won't press the envelope in that direction today.

There remains a rather high degree of uncertainty what exactly will transpire in the next four days though there are suggestions that not one but two areas of 'circulation' may develop but exactly where is the big stickler, even for where any heavier rainfall totals might occur -- hence, will stick with a broad brush general trend on the sensible weather that might be on the table into mid-week .
Although showers are again possible during the day almost anywhere, no direct affects from the system will be experienced other than for far South Florida and Keys. Showers possible east coast almost anywhere during the day into this evening.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Trend is for convergence along the far SE Coast working north with time perhaps Monday into Mid-Day Tuesday working into Brevard County. Exactly when that 'might' occur though is not certain .

 The system could be well WSW of the peninsula and still have indirect affects on the state but one thing is certain, high precipitable water values in excess of 2.00" will be in place for several days (at least Wednesday and maybe into Thursday). 

The focus though unless the storm area becomes   wrapped up will not necessarily be around any 'center per-se' a broader mid level circulation might end up being the real culprit for heavier rainfall totals combined with vorticity lobes (spin energy) that rotate within the large area of mid-level low pressure.

 Both the GFS and NAM show rainfall totals between 2-4" along the east coast coming into mid-week from Miami as far north as Southern Volusia County and into the interior as well as some areas along the west coast. 

IF a center truly becomes more organized then a POTENTIAL land fall near the Big Bend area near Cedar Key or north of there is always possible. 

Wouldn't be surprise though to see another AOI (Area of Interest) develop SE of the South Carolina Coast or even East of JAX. Just to complicated a situation to say for certain.

Circulation appears near Keys but the overall AOI is much larger.
POSSIBLE Future motion shown with a landfall anywhere from North of Tampa to the Panhandle but that is more of a question that a statement

WEDNESDAY: Discrepancies obviously continue but decent rain chances do not seem to be questionable at this stage. At some point anywhere along the line from Mid-Day Tuesday (perhaps) into Wednesday there is the remote chance of bursts of gusty winds accompanying some shower activities (squally like weather) and should the area become more organized we might be hearing about the chance of 'land falling waterspouts' though at this stage that chance looks rather remote. 

The Latest NAM (in the writer's opinion) is up to playing the extreme edge game as it historically does - so to speak  - suggesting that waterspouts along the east coast would be entirely possibly late Monday and especially Tuesday but not buying it at this stage.

Will note that the CFSV2 shows no surface development but for an inverted trough to stretch NE to SW across the state for some time. That was the solution the GFS was showing even a week ago and it has gone back to that solution several times since then. In short, there is no 'steadfast guarantee' that Invest 99L will ever develop into a 'closed well formed system' though given the current satellite animations that might be questionable.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND: The system 'should' have cleared out toward the NE of Florida (we'll just have to see about that) with rainfall chances greatly diminished most areas, but for the chance a trail of deep moisture lagging behind the system, but where - if so - cannot be determined at this stage.

 INTO FIRST WEEK SEPTEMBER: GFS   and ECMWF and another model all show a much more potent storm approaching the Southeast United States. Granted, there is no area of interest yet to be seen out there, regardless, that  three are showing what looks like could amount to a 'most definite hurricane' which might impact anywhere along the U.S. East coast from Florida to the Carolina's does bear for leaning an ear out for it after we are cleared of Invest 99L which may end up being named yet still.

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