"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, August 6, 2016

Mid-Afternoon to Early Evening Showers / Some Storms

Cozy Canaveral Condo Cumulonimbus  !
TODAY: (Saturday)  As noted in previous post pattern change had been under way and is now in place. Variations in mid-level temperatures, distribution of moisture availability throughout 'the column', rather poor mid-upper level lapse rates, and not all the best low level convergence for upward forcing due to  (a) periods of cloud cover at times of peak heating , and (b) lack of better meeting of sea breeze convergence even on east coast as gradient winds aloft increase a bit means : mostly showers with some thunder possible . 

Stronger activity would result however in larger rainfall totals due to slower storm motions for those locales that actually do see some rain today. 

Better chance for storms appears as of 11AM to be Central to Eastern portions near to south of I-4. As can be seen below in the satellite image a large cluster of storms and showers and associated cloud cover is expanding its veil across some areas and as a result closing the 'window of opportunity' for better heating in some areas. 

The high clouds over the Central areas are dropping south just in time for the high noon period it at least seems. The region south of I-4 looks like the area to have the better instability and low level convergence along the sea breeze. Though thunder could happen other areas (even rain showers) .

Best chance of any storms near East Central toward SE Interior toward the coast appears to be well into the mid-afternoon with other areas mainly near SW having the earlier start. This activity would then propagate both north and east with time if cloud coverage allows. Not sure guidance isn't a bit over done for today in rain coverage. High clouds play havoc with model guidance at time.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Increasing SW Flow 'just above the deck' might prevent sea breeze onset almost entirely. If too much cloud cover is also at play rain chances might be greatly reduced. Otherwise both SUNDAY AND MONDAY we might start to see more chance of mid-upper level energy (vorticity lobes) crossing the areas across the day which would be the prime impetus for rain fall.  
The NAM was showing 'Sunday' to be a rather 'big day' in the rainfall category but has since made a sift to either Monday or Tuesday (if either day actually evolves as the NAM has been showing it would be rather surprising as it tends to outdo itself all too often while other days it is utterly blind to rainfall chances) so time will tell. All in all though it will be greater energy aloft more so than lapse rates or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that seems will be the core trigger Sunday-Monday-Tuesday.

BEYOND: Going into Wednesday -Friday the pattern begins to 'back off' a bit with less SW steering. See breezes will begin to play into the equation with continued chances of storms mainly away from the coasts but again, some further model agreement as to when we will lose this still yet fully evolved pattern is not certain. All in all, Thursday and Friday still look like better chances for rain than maybe even today, but for different reasons.

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