"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Stronger Storms Possible Interior Central/North Central Later Today

"Strong' Thunderstorm Approaching Parts of North Brevard Late Friday Afternoon

TODAY: Not much change in thinking from  yesterday's post in regard to a bit less moisture and ridge axis gradually lifting north from South Florida as the day progresses. These two combined will alter the overall coverage and location of said coverage later in the day as a result of where the sea breeze collision is most likely to occur. (side note: Some 'stronger' storm reports did filter in yesterday , namely in regard to wind gusts  in the 38-52 mph range over parts of Brevard and Southern Volusia County).

For today, ridge axis across Far South Central will lift north after noon time as sea breezes begin to develop. There is a chance of showers and even thunder to occur interior area of St Lucie and/or Martin Counties as the merger of sea-breeze/Lake Okeechobee Breeze occurs. This activity, if it does develop, could further aid to spread outflow boundaries further inland and north toward Central Florida.

Meanwhile, activity around the Big Bed and across I-10 which may develop and spread east (remnants of 'energy' from the Southern Plains region) could also help to spread boundaries south and eastward.

Grungy Shelf Hinting at Cool Outflow Beginning to Take Over by Lower Clouds as Storm Presses East

Overall atmospheric moisture content I will surmise has decreased a bit though early morning soundings are not yet available. Regardless, will base the discussion  on continuity that even if they come in 'moist' (like yesterday) it will decrease a bit during the day. Regardless, whatever moisture there is will be at the proper levels of the atmosphere (lower and mid -levels) to permit storms to form. 

Expecting then the best 'convergence' for greatest lift will occur a bit further inland and more northward today as the east coast sea breeze will have been able to have manifested both for a longer amount of time with greater inland penetration  as the ridge axis lifts north before wedding with the west coast sea breeze boundary.

Image shows a potential region of best low level converge / lift (in red) though not exclusively so. Another area which is highly conditional for some stronger activity is far SW Interior Florida or toward the Southwest side of Lake O.

Some rains might be able to find their way back to the coast eventually as light, debris type rains as winds in the upper levels (beginning around 20,000 ft) will remain a 'good' WSW strength to at least bring cloud cover back, mainly North Brevard northward.

SUNDAY and BEYOND: Again, not much change in the highly questionable, 'what will become of what is to become of what might occur around the Yucatan' time frame. 

Guidance is still in disparity about what will occur in this region going into Monday. Regardless, deeper moisture is still forecast to make a return from South to North from morning through mid-late afternoon tomorrow from mid-morning through late afternoon. 

Suspect that earlier day activity will begin across South Florida and spread north and west during the day. Along the immediate east coast north of Vero Beach this might manifest eventually only as cloud cover but no guarantees. 

If the moisture spreads north more quickly before too much of an onshore (ESE-SE wind) flow develops, we might see an area of showers/storm working south to north even up the coastal areas, though as of this time thinking is that 'true rainfall' will remain 'just west' of I-95 north of Vero or Sebastian.

Increasing cloud coverage might also limit the extent of actually 'thunder' on Sunday as well as that we might not see a vigorous sea breeze collision this day, and as a result, not as many thunderstorms.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Much is contingent on the outcome of strength/movement of what is to occur in the tropics. Overall, the better chances of rainfall and storms appears to be over the western 1/4 or 1/3 of the state from Ft Myers up to the Big Bend in the next few days, with coastal activity (esp. in the late night/early morning) along the east coast also a possibility. Again, though, this time frame appears to be a big TBD.

 Regardless, it seems most likely that rain chances for the regions east of I-95 may significantly decrease going into Monday or Tuesday through late week next week as flow becomes more southeasterly from bottom to top.

Outside of 'that potential' the next pattern shift to favor more toward the east coast is not foreseen until around the 24th time frame.

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