"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Not As Warm Today, Bug Muggy - Showers and Thunder Possible

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE: A lot of thunderstorms over St. Petersburg area this morning and in the western Gulf. Anvil tops are spreading across the state as are pockets of mid-clouds and unrelated cirrus clouds. Closer inspection shows some of these clouds are thinning over South Florida where the best chance of rain will be (Namely South of I4). See below for more information regarding some factors today.

SYNOPSIS -WHAT'S THE 'SITCH?  Today's weather is being dictated once again by a low level ridge axis over South Florida and a mid- level ridge across Central Florida. Winds  at all levels are weak, but from the WSW and less than 10kts. By the whole, not much change from this wind field type pattern is expected through at least Monday or Tuesday (and possibly longer).

Clouds and storms continue to erupt over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and are moving little, but they are creating high clouds to stream across North Central Florida.  There is a break in the clouds over South Florida in the high clouds but more are upstream, but they look pretty thin.

To consider today: Do not believe it will get as warm today (mid-upper 80Fs most places except in the Panhandle/North Florida will it will be in the 90Fs).  Normally, cloud cover would damper thunder or even rain chances to near zero. however, the KSC sounding this morning showed a convective temperature required to start convective activity at only 84F. So high clouds or not, storms and showers should be able to form. I think in that image above I can even see some cumulus trying to form under the cirrus areas along SW Florida as I type, and other showers are starting to form over North Florida where even there the air mass is not quite as moist as the remainder of the state, but where the sun is bearing down more readily. Therefore, my disclaimer for today is: "Watch for large cloud breaks where storms are most likely to form. It is possible that broad coverage of storms today will not be nearly all that it is being made up to be (0nTV)".

Temperatures: Less warm inland temperatures today could mean less initial impact of sea breezes due to their later start. Winds should turn on shore at the beaches with no problem, but only remain very light until after 3-4mph. Upper level winds from the W  are forecast to strengthen just a small bit later today over the North Half of the state.  

IMAGE VALID FROM 1PM THROUGH 9:00PM. Excuse the typos. Oops.  Depending on where one is located.  Showers or light rain from storm debris type clouds 'could' fall just about anywhere today before 9pm.  Generous supply of thunderstorms looks to be in the cards for South Central and South Florida  (Mostly around Lake Okeechobee) today around the developing seabreezes and Lake Breezes. Some of these storms could be strong requiring Special Weather Statements. Further North, Storms should be more isolated until after
 4 Pm due to great cloud coverage. It is uncertain (to me) just exactly how much if any activity can get activity north of a line running from Melbourne to Altamonte Springs . So this red highlighted area is showing that if any storms do get going in that area they could be the strongest due to slightly cold air in the mid-levels...more so the further north one goes where it is also a bit drier in the mid-levels leading to stronger down drafts.

TODAY: Convection will get started first where clouds are thinnest and the temperatures warm. As temperatures warm, as they always do on a summer day, sea breezes will form..and make greater inland progression after 3-4pm. Exactly how far either coast's breeze gets will determine where or even IF they will meet (looks unlikely except maybe over SW Florida toward the Lake over the Everglades) well as where storms will or won't occur today.  Thus, the huge outlined area. More than half the state today will NOT get rained on it's not a rain out day as much as a 'cloud out' day.

NOTE that I have used the word "Could" numerous times in this post. There is nothing all too certain, although the forecast discussions do read that all official outlets (Weather Service Offices) are certain of storms today. Based on all of the above, that seems pretty certain...the difficulty is not so much with 'will it ?' as much as 'where?'.

PRECAUTIONS: Biggest impact will be localized flooding, particularly in those areas that are flood prone and which received good rainfall yesterday. The other caution is that for lightning strikes. The final TBAO (To Be Aware Of) is that for stronger wind gusts within downpours. Any down pour could briefly create strong winds of 40-55mph just about anywhere within that downpour with thunder present, but the greatest chance for such appears will be over the area noted in red. But note, this is only by a very small margin, and all in all it probably won't make that much of a difference.  

WHERE: Looks like most storms of strength will be west of I-95 today namely due to the pretense that they will be strong with a stronger sea breeze (under that assumption). The sea breeze will be stronger than the steering making for slow/erratic  storm motions. Additionally, heavy rain falls will likely 'rain storms out' before they can move all so far, perhaps every single item storm will only move about 10-15 miles at most  before decaying. Any storms to reach beyond I-95 will have to be very late toward evening if it's going to be strong, doing so by working on outflow from a previous storm, somewhere else, and would be of isolated nature if it were to occur.

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