"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 2, 2019

Showers and Some Thunderstorms Again Possible Today (Watch out Beaches)

Arcus Cloud takes the Lead ahead of a  June 11, 2014 Storm - Cape Canaveral 
TODAY: Not much difference from yesterday, though from latest radar showers are getting an earlier start inland as the move eastward. The KSC mid-morning sounding came in colder aloft at  20,000 feet and 10,000 respectively by a degree or two from yesterday.

 Precipitable water was lower but is forecast by all guidance to increase, likely due to mass convergence ahead of the west coast sea breeze as it approaches the Florida East Coast. 

The East Coast Sea breeze will set up shortly (early afternoon) but not likely make too great a headway into the interior  since the west coast sea breeze as of 12:30pm is almost half way across the state.

Instability overall is on par with average so again today looks like standard fare storms wise (some will not see rain at all today, whereas others might get over an inch near the east coast where some back building and boundary interactions will prolong rainfall in isolated locations).  Though a 'red zone' for the blogger for 'stronger storms' is being noted -- it's all conditional upon boundary interactions and as is always the case, unpredictable if and or where any such 'stronger storms' will be made manifest, let alone 'where' that would be.

MONDAY: As of now, Monday looks like a repeat performance of today, but with less coverage. We'll have to wait until  'the day of'  to know for certain; however, since little much aloft is going to be changing 'air mass' wise and temperatures aloft might warm up some which would by virtue of that fact tend to make activity more isolated and of less strength, it might be safe to say for now that there will be isolated to scattered storms again Monday which will move from west to east.

TUESDAY- FRIDAY: Pattern Change. Steering winds will turn from west to the east coast to the other way around. For the east coast , this means little to no rain chances, but for a scant chance a shower can form as the sea breeze kicks in which will likely be early on in the day. 

Best coverage will be across the west half of the state, and on some days even that might be a bit limited.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Another pattern change, favoring the interior direct then shifting to favor more of the East Coast once again come Sunday. Temperatures aloft might remain rather warm, so no 'severe' weather is foreseen and how much moisture for there to be showers/storms even if steering does favor the east coast is in question at this point in time (too soon to know). Meaning, even if 'steering' does favor the east coast, that doesn't mean there will be storms to be steered!

NEW: As of the latest GFS our 'Introduction to the Wet Season' might not be too far away. Indications of either a tropical system making headway toward the Gulf Coast Region from near the Yucatan come mid-June (which would be normal) is being indicated and/or merely a pattern that would favor a moisture surge from the Tropical Caribbean northward with high pressure  centered will to the east of Florida at multiple-atmospheric levels could bring the 'tidal wave of  'deep tropical moisture' northward. 

If a tropical system were to lift northward it would surely bring the moisture with it and trailing behind it and from there on out we'd be in it for the season (off and on). 

Otherwise, if high pressure does indeed situate itself well to the east, circulation around the high will lift it northward. At time, it appears to be a combination of both, but it is really too far out in the forecast timetable to say for certain.

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