"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Increased Thunder Chances Today, More So Thursday & Friday

Stationary Frontal Boundary located as shown above late today in response to an upper level trough to the North of Florida has finally shunted the west periphery of Atlantic high pressure offshore which was partly responsible for the past few days for the 'mostly dry conditions' around the state by August standards, but today will be a different story

TODAY: Last post was around August 4th at which time it was noted that the next best chance of true rains might not be until after the first full two weeks of August. Today is the 14th and tomorrow looks to be that day of higher rain chances as it so happens, yet there is some chance of rain today over more areas than there has been for quite some time.

Today is a bit of a transition day with better moisture being able to manifest with retreat of high pressure and filling in of atmospheric moisture which has plagued the state with unusually dry air by August standards. Regardless, another very warm day in store prior to the rains and/or cloud cover.  Steering is from the west, in general, but not strong enough to overcome a respectable sea breeze east coast front late today at the low levels. Depending on how far inland the east coast sea breeze penetrates will determine where some of the strongest activity will reside with a guess shown as noted below.

South Florida at this time is showing up on short fused guidance to be quite dry to support storms, but suspect that since almost all guidance is showing precipitation down that way, that very late day to early evening if not mid evening activity might end up being a bit on the stronger side should it manifest there. Downdraft CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and rather high Lifted Condensation Levels (LCLs) will likely preclude especially strong storms if any to occur until very late today a few hours after peak heating hours which will be fairly coincident with any sea breeze collisions especially toward or just east of Orlando in the Sanford to West Daytona Area possibly into the Mims and North Titusville area, seeing Deland..with other activity working up and down I-95 in general. 

Motion toward the east around 10 mph not including propagation along any outflow or Lake boundaries will likely mean that storm strength will dwindle toward US1 and east if not further west than that, but much will depend on how far inland the sea breeze manages to squeak into the interior especially south of I-4 and more so toward 528 and the West Brevard border swamps . 

Activity more likely to be closer to the coast nearer the I-4 and north, with some cloudy skies developing toward sunset or shortly thereafter coast side, if not some light rains into dark as storm debris drifts over head.  Strongest activity could have some localized heavy rain and as usual vivid lightning.

*Special Note: It's been awhile since many areas have seen rain so extra driving caution advised due to  that excessive oils accumulating on road tops can make them more "Slip-n-Slidier' than usual.

Only general areas are shown really, but all guidance agrees there will be some coverage today. Also noting, the west coast sea breeze can be seen in the above image from Tampa and North where the green line is drawn, parading east ward as of 1pm today
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday appears might be the most dynamic day thunderstorm speaking as much deeper moisture is advected northward from South Florida overnight tonight into afternoon Thursday toward about the Central Dividing Line of Canaveral west to north Tampa Bay. The bigger trick for Thursday and more so Friday will be lingering or increased mid to upper level cloud cover (if any)  which could shut down the "Convection Oven" resulting in more cloud cover rather than rainfall as oft occurs when precipitable water values exceed 2.00" which is being shown to occur per the latest GFS model run.

 Otherwise, sea breeze convergence more toward the east side with eastward motion would put the stamp on better rain chances for even the areas along and east of US1 to the beaches (in the absence of mostly cloudy sky cover mid morning through mid afternoon time frame).

SATURDAY: Still a pretty good chance of rains but mostly along and west of I-95 except near and north of the I-4 as high pressure starts to work back in, more so even on Sunday.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND  : Looks like another 'long duration doldrums August' dry spell for the beaches of the Atlantic other than some possible periods of ocean showers as deep layer easterlies set up, steering any possibly thunder activity well away form the east coast, and continuing possibly as such through the remainder of the month.

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