|"COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT" - Much cooler on Friday |
(just wait until Tuesday though)
TODAY: Very little change from previous blog post on Tuesday, with graphic from that time shown below. The only difference will be the timing of the cold front which shown below is about about 3-6 hours to 'fast' per latest guidance. The front is expected to still be across nearly 'dead Central" at 10 pm and not get to the location shown below until around 1AM Friday morning.
The Storm Prediction Center and surrounding weather service offices are watching for a brief window of 'opportunity' for 'severe weather' later today as well; I'm noting that the GFS model consistently is showing very little in rainfall totals south of I-4 though, and even less to none across South Florida. Suspect there might not be enough 'gradient forcing' along the boundary to provide the mechanical lift of discrete storm cells to generate them to begin with, but if any can get going things would change quickly across Central Florida, especially between 2pm - 9pm time frame. If too much cloud cover moves in that would be a down play, but currently other than early fog which would need to burn off, skies above the fog are clear per satellite interpretation, but be advised, any severe weather would be moving very fast at over 40mph and closer to 48 -55 mph forward motion, thus should any storms form they will approach and depart very quickly and likely be small and isolated.
|GRAPHIC from Tuesday's Post (Note the orange area across Central)|
|Storm Prediction Center's latest for Today regarding 'tornado potential', |
also is shown a band of similar nature for strong wind gusts on their forecast page
LATER TODAY -TONIGHT: Outside of the 'severe potential' the heaviest rainfall totals will be along to north of I-4 with the front. Being slightly delayed from previous forecasts, it appears the front will be fully through Central by around midnight which is when MUCH DRIER and colder air moves in, especially after 4AM Friday morning. The greater threat late today earlier tonight will be strong wind gusts but as can be seen above (and GFS guidance agrees), there is the ever present chances of a weak tornado,FAST moving one at that later today). Rainfall totals shown so low would be attributed to the fast storm motion rather than there not being a lack of storms, if they are able to manifest.
FRIDAY: We will be seeing the lowest dew point air in quite some time now since last winter accompanied by full cold air advection during the normal hours of peak heating, thus it could be breezy with gusts above 22mph for a time with highs in the mid-50Fs across Central and colder north portions (warmer further south). But there is a twist to this situation noted next:
There is a good chance it will be colder Friday afternoon than it will be Saturday morning along the east coast from the Cape and South along the east coast at sunrise. It actually appears the warmest time of day on Friday will be just after midnight Thursday night (i.e., Friday morning at 12:30AM, as well as before midnight Friday night as Saturday approaches due to the wind becoming 'onshore' toward sunset Friday night). As noted before, Saturday could dawn at the immediate beaches with much lighter winds as well from the east with a morning low there in the lower 60Fs to near 65F south of Sebastian Inlet, with highs Saturday back in the upper 60Fs but with a chance of coastal stratocumulus cloud decks re-asserting themselves making it a possibly a bit cloudy Saturday afternoon and night.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Continued light onshore flow will mean an even warmer Sunday Sunrise with plentiful clouds. The cold front which will have cleared the state will be preparing to return north as a 'warm front' Sunday into Monday...
SUNDAY: Sunday could be warm with a high in the Upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs with a chance of rain showers and maybe some thunder, particularly South Central and Central Florida. There appears at this time to actually be a BETTER overall chance of rainfall accumlulations with the boundary returning as a warm front than when it passes from the North today/tonight as a cold front.
BEYOND: ARCTIC PLUNGE TO DIP IT'S TOES ACROSS FLORIDA. As of this time, Be Prepared for a cold one with near Freezing Temperatures interior North Central Florida with mid-upper 30Fs mostly, and possibly mid 40Fs (if not colder) much of the entire state by Tuesday morning next week beginning Monday morning.
This PLUNGE, however, will be fairly short-lived with near full recovery from it by Thursday to normal temperatures once again.