"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 26, 2013

Potential For Turbulently Wet to Eventually Quite Cool Beginning Monday or Tuesday

Areas Mainly East and South of the Orange Outlines Could Experience Very wet
conditions from a combination of Arctic like conditions mixing with some sub-tropical anomalies next week meaning very wet, cloudy, and eventually very cool conditions. Much is still TBD.
TODAY- SUNDAY: Pleasant weather for the most part prevails although there might be some increasing cloudiness for parts of Central and South Florida on Saturday into Sunday which would mean a bit cooler where clouds (if they manifest with a quick sprinkle) persist. Otherwise, not much to speak for as spring like weather prevails allowing the trees to manifest foliage and nature in general to blossom forth.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: The above image is the surface depiction for today with the highlight really being in the far NW corner. This is a surface reflection of what is to come well aloft at the jet stream level. Guidance is showing a deep upper level trough to drop into the country's midsection next week while in the meantime a southern branch sub-tropical jet will also be in place from west to east south of Florida. These two branches are expected as it now appears to meet up somewhere over the Deep South toward Florida. Cold air aloft, ample moisture, and unstable air would allow this pattern to become most evident going into Tuesday and more so on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY- FRIDAY: Both the GFS and ECMWF (Euro) are showing unstable , wet, possibly stormy especially Tuesday - Wednesday time frame but continuing possibly through Thursday or early Friday. Exactly how the eventual outcome manifests will determine what kind of weather will occur heading toward late Wednesday (as it appear now). Guidance varies anywhere from a bit of a subtropical entity emerging from the Gulf and across Florida toward one of not subtropical origin forming over Georgia. If the former occurs weather could get quite windy along the east coast for a day or two with rain mixed in, preceded by a day or two of strong storms in the forecast. Either way, strong storms might end up being in the forecast from cold air aloft and some bulk shear in the upper levels Tuesday and/or Wednesday, or even Thursday.  In any case, under both circumstances, rain chances appear could occur almost any time after Tuesday or at least begin prior to noon time through late evening each day. Storm motions would be rather slow, so (or if so)..rainfall totals in small areas could end up being higher than model guidance is hinting at. On the other hand, what is showing as rainfall might actually end up being solely cloud cover.

BEYOND: Without going into greater detail (on the above), since much surmising leads to only more surprising, the GFS is hinting at unusually cool weather returning come next weekend with lows well into the 50Fs...accompanied by breezy conditions. Again though, the GFS has a tendency to go a little too far with low temperature forecasts in the long range for Florida at least, so will leave that up for grabs until a more reasonable time frame draws nigh.  The GFS has shifted gears nearly every 6 hours beyond 72-96 hours as it stands now (not unusual  but did eerily come into close agreement 12 hours ago with the latest Euro Model, which showed a surface low just off N. Brevard County come Thursday time frame after two days of decent rainfall chances.)Time will tell is about all that can be said at this point, at least for planning purposes.

Necessary Footnote  there has been hints of if not one but perhaps two blocking patterns setting up over the Northern Hemisphere in a run of the ECMWF model, and blocking patterns should one set up and just exactly where (being the next matter to consider) tend to be quite difficult from a future-cast perspective for forecast accuracy as we then are at the mercy of determining just exactly when any said block (or blocks) will actually break down. That is yet another factor to consider in an already what appears at this point to be a complicated, but yet to develop, situation.

This "Example" shows TWO Omega Blocks over the North Hemisphere with the United States at the ver y bottom of the image. The GFS hints at an Omega Block right over the United States in a few runs. Point being, wherever the block sets up, if one does, will be a big factor in the long range. The GFS implies one setting up toward the SE States as far north as Tennesse well toward 'next' weekend and beyond.

No comments: