"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Take Off the Sweater - Hold On To Your Hat

Shown is the NAM (North American Model) forecast for tomorrow morning at 7AM.

As you can see a front will be knocking at the front door (if your house faces north) per what this model believes as well has the HPC. From what I can see from the other models this is what one could call a 'good fit' for the overall set up. The first thing that stands out is the lack of rain (that green stuff) before the front gets here. "Whaaaat?!!" Yup, it appears that although there could be some it will be small and isolated. It what for FROPA (frontal passage) to arrive in earnest. Could be worse, look at all the pinks and blues on there to the northeast...that's gross cold snow/ice or a mix thereof.

Instead, we wait for it to get here and then as the cooler air is moving in so does the rain. YUCK! (exclamation point). And to make matters worse once it gets here, it's here to stay. As in, all day.
Not necessarily continuously, but from the best I can tell it might as well be. But fear not, yes it's a cold front but it really won't get cold unless one considers the mid 60s cold for a low and low to mid 70s for a high. The rain should end by Friday morning...for a day. "What" again you say?

The next week at least is going to be very busy on the weather maps so hold on to your hat (reason 1) busy I can't elaborate much on timing issues other than to say a series of low pressures are going to pass over as this front shown will make it only as far south as South Florida. It will move north with each 'low' riding long it as a warm front, then drop back south as the low passes by as a cold front again..and this happens yet again about 4 days after that one. So conditions will be changing a lot around here after today for a solid week. And most of the time it will be cloudy but not cold...just maybe a tad cool.

Now for more urgent matters, what about today? It seems that what you see right now is what you got for the entire day. Being mostly sunny to partly cloudy and maybe we'll reach that record high referred to yesterday. In any case, it should get up to about 82-84 unless we get too many clouds at the wrong time of day...namely between 11-1pm. It will be windy too which is reason 2 for holding on to your hat. Especially watch those causeways and waterways as well as the beach. Any open area could see winds of something like 16 gusting to least.
Leaving deeper analysis and elaboration for coming days for tomorrow and as those future times draw nigh. Each model run has varied CONSIDERABLY as to what will eventually transpire so there's no point in stating anything more other than what already has been until things get narrowed down. Tomorrow is tough enough to have any guarantees on. Maybe it won't be all the bad rain wise, and just 'deeply cloudy and overcast'.

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