"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Chance of Stronger Storms Along / Near I-95 Later Today

"Thursday Mornings"
TODAY:Pond of high PWAT (precipitable water) continues over most of the state today in varying degrees in a most un-July-like fashion. Temperatures aloft as of this A.M. have cooled at 500mb about 2 or 3 degrees. There was some active storms yesterday western portions of North Central toward Lake County vicinity and perhaps more of the same today but further toward the east as low pressure well east   of Jacksonville slowly moves off to the north and east during the day.

There is a potential issue though especially toward the east coast from Brevard and south. High clouds from shower/storm activity well offshore are streaming toward the coast. Suspect these might erode as the approach the coast though especially by mid afternoon so for now will disregard. They can be seen in the image below.

Today is not really in many ways a typical summer like day though for most purposes with this current strange pressure pattern at play and it is not much expected to change significantly for several days.  Early this morning there was more of a December like sky yet coupled with warm temperatures which was a strange combination. That being..a secondary area of mi-low level low pressure circulation forms along I-10 from Florida toward Southern Alabama in the next few days only serving to re-reinforce what is already present but by a different means. 

Temperatures aloft might cool more into tomorrow and/or Saturday so will be watching for stronger storms again on those days before warming is forecast aloft once again bringing storm strength more in line with standard lightning , thunder, and rain with more showers than thunderstorms.

Overall though, rain chances persist into and through the weekend which brings up the next question. What to make of the forecast developing low pressure. Other guidance shows a low also west of Tampa to retreat back toward the WSW over two days placing much of the state in SW moist flow and lots of cloud cover. Then the question becomes..will the moisture manifest only as cloud cover instead of rain? Too soon to say.

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Sunday, July 26, 2015

Showery Afternoon in Store - Some Thunder Mainly Well Inland

Crackin' The Sunday Morning Sunrise in Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Looks mostly like a 'showery' regime today with South Florida beginning to get worked over with cloud cover and showers. Low pressure surface circulation might be located SW of Orlando in NE Polk County up through nearly 5000 ft but wind all across Central is quite weak up through 20000 ft. Thunder might occur later today in from I-95 anywhere along I4 south toward Vero Beach where activity is more likely to affect the coast northward to perhaps Southern Brevard County. All in all best chance of thunder might be Orange, Northern Osceola Seminole, much of Polk and Lake Counties later today as that will be the last location to receive the rains today and thus have greater chances of becoming more unstable. Lightning does not look like it will be frequent though and probably short lived in any storm that can form.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: If guidance is correct per NAM/GFS trends then showers will be more likely to return to the east coast and beaches after perhaps some very warm and steamy starts to the day, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Low pressure region, so far that is, is to lift north and a bit west tonight and put must of Florida other than I-4 and north in a strong and stiff SW Flow aloft. Continued very moist as well. Showers and some thunder could pile up almost anywhere along the east coast later in the day on any one of these days but also occur many other locations earlier in the day or even in any location after around 11AM.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Better chance of lightning coverage and some stronger storms if GFS holds true to form, especially on Friday/Saturday as it is forecast temperatures at 500mb to cool by several degrees, courtesy of a migrant and weak TUTT low from the western Caribbean working toward Florida . Assuming this holds true that is. TUTTs are notorious for being rather unpredictable only a few days out in advance. Otherwise, see no reason to take showers and storm chances out of the outlook for many days ahead, perhaps up through even next weekend.

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Saturday, July 25, 2015

Large Rainfall Totals West Central Today

TODAY: Big difference for today in some locations except the West Central coast where rainfall totals in the Hillsborough County area are topping 5" and 6" so far in only the past 24 hours approaching 8" at least by now.  Currently there is heavy rainfall activity occurring over west Central and that is drifting south. Today's blog is going to be an extrapolation of what occurred yesterday combined with latest guidance.  

Lower to upper level trough now is across to near and just north of I-4 across the state. Secondary impulses might pass into parts of the Western half of the panhandle for strong to near severe activity much later today - but the two regimes this post will refer to is

 1. The current activity and

 2. what effect that activity will have in other areas later today combined with the current synoptic scale set us as mentioned above.

Therefore this is a guess based on yesterday's chain of events: 

Yesterday a very large outflow boundary emerged out of the west to southwest coast's activity and racedly spread out in all directions for over 200 miles after to during the peak heating hours. 

If that is to occur again today..and there is the big IF in this post... outflow could race outwardly in all easterly directions toward the east coast sea breeze which should develop today. Where that outflow meets the sea breeze AND under to just south of 'the boundary' of the upper to lower level troughs there could end up being some stronger activities East Central just in from the coast that could drift over the coastal communities. Elsewhere along the trough axis activity could occur almost anywhere along to just north of I-4 and northwestward to the Cedar Key area.

Over South Florida there was continued rains and thunder working south and east with time.

Overall, suspect a lot might change between the hours of 10:30AM - 12:30AM. 
KSC sounding showed a convective temperature of only 83F. That would not bode well for strong storms under the current circumstances as convective levels would be reached before there is hardly much heat energy built up resulting in nothing but showers in other areas. Therefore, thinking at least one or two more mechanisms will be needed to trigger storms. Latest RAP/MSA (Mesoscale Analysis) shows two potential 'vorticity maxes' over North Central at time. But how long those will persist is unknown. 

All in all, it looks that some areas might well so no rain today at all whereas there might be some spots over Central Florida that could get over 2 inches. We'll see. (Otherwise, could be strong storm up toward the Panhandle region even perhaps anywhere along I-10).  

This will especially be true if we do not see an outflow boundary emerge from the current activity shown in the image above.Tt would end up being relatively quiet compared to what was described as a potential outcome otherwise.

BEYOND: Decreasing overall rainfall coverage into Sunday through Wednesday. Boundary should settle in across Central and meander north and south for a few days as far south as Northern Lake Okeechobee and as far north as I-4. Along and south of that boundary is the area where rain chances will exist most likely but where it will be on any one of those days at this point is hard to impossible to say.

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Friday, July 24, 2015

"Early Onset" Today- Saturday - More than One Round of Thunder Possible

Early Evening - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not many surprises today. Low pressure located just off the coast of North Carolina has a poorly defined surface 'front' / boundary trailing westward from it which will be drifting south into Florida late weekend. Meanwhile, SW surface flow should sustain well enough to prevent east coast sea breeze formation while winds aloft curve more toward the west through northwest. Atmosphere looks primed and ready for action  first along the west side but could pop up just about anywhere by 11AM or so once convective temperatures are reached  - with better heating by noon might see the onset of the bulk of activity start to pop between 12:30pm to 1:30pm and continue to do so and work south and east into parts of South Central and South Florida as well. 

Energy-Helicity (EHI) , not something you hear much about over Florida in the summer,  is looking to be rather well above the norm  (which is usually very low and not mentioned much in posts) in value today across all of North Central Florida. This might help maintain storms or give an extra boost to their rainfall and/or lightning potential. 

Temperatures aloft are rather warm toward the norm for late July so strong wind gusts though not anticipated could occur especially early to mid afternoon with the onset of any one location's first storm activity before the local atmosphere gets 'worked over'.  

Some areas might see more than one storm today (especially parts from I-10 south toward a line from Vero Beach to Tampa Bay.

SUNDAY: Perhaps a variation of the same theme with again, an early onset. Some of the same areas that receive any heavy rain today could again receive it tomorrow; as such, some localized 'flood statements' for those areas prone to that affect might be issued.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Things slow down a bit to a lot depending on which model one prefers. The NAM is now taking up with the old GFS solution of several days ago driving the front through Central Florida - the GFS and Euro Model (ECMWF) do not imply that will be the case though.

Either way, after Saturday the activities begin to wane and modify in character. This would be expected anyway this time of year as patterns shift slowly but surely with time adding some sublime variations to the menu.  

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Thursday, July 23, 2015

"Like" Wednesday - Increasing Rain Chances Late Friday through Saturday

TODAY: Minor variation of yesterday. Moisture on KSC morning sounding easily over 2"  and guidance shows this to be the case in a broad swath across all of Central with 'sig drying' north of Southern Volusia to Brooksville line toward I-10. 

A few showers are already in progress along the west coast and expect like yesterday an 'early onset' for folks west coast and far interior working eastward 'en-masse' along with accompanying OFBs (outflow boundaries) on top of what will be the already present west coast sea breeze. 

Steering might be a tad more out of the WNW today than previous days but rather slow. At 700mb the KSC sounding showed about 1.5 degrees of cooling (only by eye-balling it without actual numbers). We might see some bona-fide stronger storms today later portions of mid-afternoon toward the east coast of Central and a bit later further south near Lake Okeechobee vicinity and just in from the coast parts of SE Florida - mainly wind gusts perhaps in upper 40s range? And as usual, some potent lightning bolts.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Frontal boundary sagging south from low pressure to form off the Eastern Carolinas to make it's presence/approach known beginning late Friday with up-tick of over all coverage. Expect perhaps more cloud cover after initial onset of activities to linger around through Saturday though might see some clearing earlier Saturday but with an earlier onset. Guidance is coming in with some good coverage state wide but how much of that will be cloud cover especially once the boundary gets set in place across Central is hard to say.

Rain chances so far now remain a bit elevated into Monday after which time it would so far seem to be a little over presumptuous to speak of future days other than that rain chances remain as would be expected this time of year. A previous GFS run though in the future showed 'sig drying' but will disregard.

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Wednesday, July 22, 2015

More Storm Activities - Pockets of Stronger Wind Gusts "East Central"

Sunshine Starts  Wednesday

TODAY: Slight variation of the same thing and same appears to be the case tomorrow as well. What that 'variation' as usual entails is the usual day-by-day predicament in the shorter term.

KSC sounding came in with a remarkable PWAT of 2.06" (compare to winter when it can be less that 1/4" at times). Most moisture is evenly distributed throughout the column and steering is from the west about about 8-11 mph or so toward the east. East coast sea breeze should again be able to form and make only inland progress as far as perhaps US-1 to I-95 with a few clouds and maybe showers going up on to the east of it most anywhere along the east coast earlier this afternoon.

Red Zone is Only "for Example" 
West coast regime of showers and some thunder going early and pressing east and increasing in coverage as time passes after late morning into early afternoon...mostly West Central and to the north toward Cedar Key or so.  

Highest coverage today should generally be south of I 10 and north of a line running from Vero Beach to South Tampa Bay or Sarasota (that is to say, all of North Central and a bit of South Central).

Some storms could have a peak wind gust or two in the 50 mph range as was the case yesterday but those will be few and very far between.

THURSDAY: Again, looks like a similar day. The SPC is already calling for marginal severe coverage both this day and Friday in almost the exact same region as just described above both days so time will tell. Latest guidance available on 'this end' does not imply any such thing, but then is looking way 'healthier' than it was suspected it would be, at least so far, mainly in the coverage aspect

BEYOND: Frontal boundary might not make it as far south as surmised yesterday. How far south will have a short term affect on what effect that ambient weather will be locally. Now it is saying no further then Central with low pressure forming off east of East Central but first developing along the wave/front over the peninsula itself. Whether any of these scenarios will manifest is too soon to say. It might be picking up on something else ...another signal that is trigger this configuration but just exactly what, cannot say for now as we eye   the future. 

Guidance shows high coverage of rain and early initiation both Friday and Saturday..however, this might end up being cloud cover instead but skeptical about that at this point. That was what was in the MIA Forecast Discussion at least but do not see why that would be the case at this point.

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Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Mid-July Patterns Continues - Slow to Change

Thunderstorm with Dangerous 'Random Lightning Bolts" Develops
over the Banana River West of Cape Canaveral on Monday
TODAY: Not a significant change from yesterday with temperatures aloft forecast to be about the same as the past few days. There is the chance that winds in the lower portions of the mid-levels will be a bit stronger from the west today that might hold the sea breeze out to sea north of Vero Beach but if it can form it would remain east of I-95 from Brevard and south (further inland south of Vero or Ft Pierce where mid level westerlies are weaker).

As Yesterday's Rain Developed
This area had the best rains yesterday over Central and South Florida
Best chance of thunder once again along and north of I-4 but might well see it again south of I-4 mainly near and east of I-95 though a few bolts could occur inland as well, especially if activity ends up occurring later than latest guidance implies, which at time calls for an earlier start.

As of this hour though (530AM) very little is going on, which is opposed to short-range model guidance. In the end, it might end up being that today will be much like yesterday in the overall scheme of things, but exactly where an actual storm or shower will cause impact as usual cannot be pre-determined.

WEDNESDAY: This day so far looks to be about the driest day statewide except North Florida but then again, today was looking to be quite dry only yesterday. We'll have to see how it goes. Latest RAP model really does imply for today mainly showery activities but HRRR begs to differ.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Looks like a transition day Thursday but a slow one at that as a frontal boundary develops from low pressure moving east off the Carolinas and slowly sagging its way to Florida and eventually Central Florida by Saturday. Better rain chances thus on Friday and Saturday with storms moving east to west and probably an early start to them too. Saturday might not be the best day to plan for all day beach activities or migrating from inland to frolic in the surf.

SUNDAY: GFS states the frontal boundary will make it's way to South Central Florida before stalling out. From there, the last two model runs have shown differing results developing with said boundary. 

The previous one showed the front working back north with a return to our continued pattern with variations, while the following run forms low pressure along the boundary toward Southeast Florida which lifts north and eventually loops back northwest to North Florida. Overall, the end results would be the same, but if low pressure does form some areas would remain dry away from it's proximity.

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Monday, July 20, 2015

Better Thunder Chance Along/North of I-4

Crepuscular Rays Crown a Thundershower over West Merritt Island Sunday Afternoon
TODAY: Conditions look similar to yesterday for the most part outside of some minor variances on the KSC sounding - temperatures aloft are within 1C of yesterday at 700mb & 500mb respectively but there is just a bit more moisture and convective temperature was around 87F (which was lower than yesterday at the same time of day). 

If correct and over a large area, this would mean earlier initiation or  about the same in regard to cumulus cloud generation. Guidance implies a scenario of activity first developing along what appears might be the mid-level remnant trough which is back to the north closer to a Cedar Key to St. Augustine line. Satellite imagery seems to imply another one near Tampa Bay running west out into the Gulf and might be extending across at least part of the land mass as well to the east. South Central and especially South looks to be in an entirely different regime today basically north of a line running from Ft Pierce or Vero and west across the state.  

Best consensus implies first activities to the North then working general east and south with time , very slowly along progressive outflows from showers and maybe some thunder. The latest High Resolution Rapid Refresh is showing some either heavy rain showers or thunderstorms (though small ones) as the best bet along and north of I-4 east half of state.  If a shower or storm form near Eastern Okeechobee region say like in St Lucie County or just north outflow from there working north might enhance showers into thunder along the east coast of Brevard.

Further south into Central it appears mostly showers until one gets east of I-95 toward US1 which would be near the east coast sea breeze front, like yesterday. 

Some spots might not see any rain at all today and in fact many areas will not get rain south of I-4 but on the chance it does, no one has said it definitely wouldn't rain either.

South Florida is looking a bit more meager like yesterday but overall might have similar inland showers and some thunder conditions mainly over the Everglades, at least per the most recently available information and over the western parts of Dade/Broward.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wednesday might have a slightly better chance of showers and/or thunder but almost tempted to take thunder out entirely except for one of the days. Temperatures at 700mb might warm too much making for such mid level lapse rates that despite the available moisture ...thunder just wouldn't be possible. So far it might be Wednesday that will see a slightly better rain chance.  These two days have the overall lowest rain chance but not completely negligible.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Guidance over night shifted a little continuing with a Friday - Saturday better thunder chance and overall coverage and backed off on Sunday a bit . Latest brings a better rain chance return now though on Thursday as well as a weak frontal boundary becomes aligned across Central Florida after a broad and weak low pressure area moves out into the Atlantic just north of I-4 during this time frame  toward the end of the weekend.

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Sunday, July 19, 2015

Sloppy July Pattern Continues

July 22 2014  Banana River  

TODAY: New Day, same story and chapter, different page.

All in all little has changed overall with the potential of some small differences that ground base weather will reveal later today. Appears drier air to the North just south of I-10 toward I-4 would greatly diminish the potential for any heavier rainfalls there today. Upper level temperatures remain too warm to warrant anything more that some wind gusts if even thunder can form there at all. (see * Disclaimer further down)

Further south, the 700mb trough axis has shifted south as presumed but is losing identity. The only signal that might play in of its demise is slightly stronger WSW winds aloft which could pile up showers toward the East side of Central over Osceola, Eastern Orange, Brevard, Indian River, and Northern Okeechobee to St. Lucie Counties later today into early evening. This better steering is small though and haven't seen the morning KSC sounding given it has not been launched yet. Since no 'big weather' outside the running norm expected today  - decided to take the gamble and go ahead and post early on regardless.

South Florida could get into the action as well much later, but currently has very little going for it if guidance is correct. MIA appears to have agreed with this diagnosis at least for the shorter term.

Fuzzy cumulus probably could form by late morning with with warmer mid-level temps and little in boundaries to work with in the lower levels.  Almost no activity off the west coast this morning means all factors such as lake breezes and the sea breezes will need to be in play before initiation in the absence of any mid-upper level triggers. 

Sea breeze collision will be a long time coming and would be the impetus for some better developed activity perhaps over interior South Florida combined with outflows from Central Florida on the premise it does get going.  Not expecting any strong storms today nor much in frequent lightning, but any lightning is dangerous regardless..and it only takes one bolt to cause harmful consequences  that 20 anticipated ones would do.

 **** (Disclaimer: The NAM has shown the chance for a strong storm or two over eastern Volusia and north toward JAX in two consecutive runs and little else state wide which is suspect. Given the drier air up that way, this does have a possibility I suppose. )

EARLY-MID WEEK: Might see a decrease in activity most of state though GFS does show at least  showers and/or a thunder along most of the Florida east coast later in the day each day, likely a manifestation of the east coast sea breeze not making much more that 10-15 miles of inland progress each day with activity pushing back to the east after the west coast breeze has shifted across the state during the early and mid day hours.

LATE WEEK: Increase in rain chances could return. Reason being the high pressure that had retreated to Texas as mentioned over a week ago and is flattening out and has shifted a bit more east and south over the past few days (hence weaker storms) will  retrograde once again and allow a bit more troughiness down the eastern sea board. 

Temperatures aloft cool a few degrees with continued SW to NE steering flow, possibly increasing just a bit in the presence of an abundant moisture supply could mean increasing rain chances over larger areas FRIDAY-SUNDAY of the upcoming weekend. Most offices have picked up on  this and are referring to it in their AFDs, "Area Forecast Discussions".

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Saturday, July 18, 2015

'Looks Like Rain Today' - Chance of Localized Flooding

"Hmmm... Looks Like Rain Today"
TODAY: Very similar scenario in place from yesterday ; however, this morning there is nostrong activity off the west coast that was in place yesterday, hence no aid from outflow boundaries as an additive source for initiation and perhaps stronger storms at least in the first parts of the day.

Temperatures aloft are almost exactly the same though, and moisture availability is in abundant supply with sunny skies. 

The KSC Sounding showed a convective temperature of 89F which is reachable by shortly after 'noon time zone' -- with very light westerlies in the steering column.

The winds however, just off the surface might be a tad stronger than yesterday which would mean the east coast sea breeze would make less inland progress today and/or would be extremely shallow in vertical depth. 

There is a bit of an inverted trough at 10,000 feet (roughly 700mb) aloft running just north of I-4 from north Tampa Bay toward Ormond Beach and suspect this will be at least primarily the initial location for the better heavy rainfall total threat. This same region had big totals yesterday so flood statements or advisories might be warranted in that area at some point in time.

The boundary did drift a bit south though and expect it to begin to lose identity per the GFS as it drifts toward Central by Sunday afternoon.  

Overall, sea breeze collisions with heavy overloading could result in a few stronger gusts that is if the atmosphere is not worked over in most locations before the collision can occur.  Stronger storms from wind  will be as it appears now well in the exception rather than the norm especially later in the day when cloud cover takes over as is assumed will be the case. 

 Some areas will not see rain today  though. The NAM model came in surprisingly scant all things considered in the rain coverage department if it verifies? I guess we'll find out by tonight.

SUNDAY: Overall scenario continues with the better rain chances shifting a bit more south to Central Direct, otherwise everything else appears to be running status-quo.

BEYOND: Same general scenario at large until maybe later in the week when temps aloft might warm some and as a result less activity despite the ample moisture. This is very iffy though so wouldn't make any wagers just yet .  Otherwise, outside of the period when rain chances could decrease, there isn't any big curve balls being shown on the horizon for about 10 days at which point we're are beyond model reliability .

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Friday, July 17, 2015

Slow Moving Storms, Locally Heavy Rain Possible

TODAY: Subtle change from past few days might be in the works. The wild card is the storms currently active along the west coast (see below image). How those storms will affect conditions later in the day is the wild card, if in fact they will at all as far as North half of the state is concerned.

THE PREMISE: On the premise these storms will eventually result in outflow and an enhanced West Coast sea breeze effect, the end result could be stronger storms mainly into the interior portions of the state or more toward the east coast as noted also below down the Suwanee River Basin region.

NOW: Current KSC sounding shows continued stronger westerlies at what might be above the depth of a sea breeze depths yet below the better storm steering currents. If this sounding is representative of most of the south half of the state, storm steering will be quite slow today. Additionally, given the aforementioned, sea breezes might well be able to form today as opposed to previous days, but exactly how far inland is another matter (namely the east coast sea breeze). 

If the east coast sea breeze remains closer to I-95 if in fact not closer toward US1  especially south of the I-4 toward Volusia county, the area in red would need to be shifted a bit more to the east. Temperatures aloft are not that cold today with 500mb coming in at around -6C and 700mb at around 10C. That is opposed to those days when they might be running closer to -9C/6C respectively.

Those temperatures are not conducive to strong downdraft winds and indeed the down draft CAPE and Down Bust potential indexes are low to non-existent per the MAP (Mesoscale Analysis Page); however, there is a lot of moisture to play with, and as a result down burst winds from water overloading could always occur near the later stages of any storm along boundary intersects. 

July 14th 2014 - Vierra From off I95 Storm
Outside of sea breeze effects (if possible) there might be quite a bit of showers minus thunder as was the case yesterday, or very limited thunder. However, it is Florida and things could change going into mid afternoon.

Outside of those more apparently obvious circumstances listed, storm outflows would alter the landscape and at that point almost anything goes, even closer to the beaches namely north of West Palm.

Elsewhere, sea breeze convergence over what appears mostly would be over the Everglades region seems the better play for the day, though showers or even thunder could form during and along the sea-breeze journey from either coast into the interior portions.

BEYOND: Similar conditions might be at play tomorrow;however, what will occur early morning tomorrow toward the west coast will have a big effect for later in the day elsewhere (there is a domino effect); otherwise, ample moisture continues with showers and thunder possible though just exactly how wide spread or at all strong is another matter entirely.

Even further out in time, steering toward the east coast will remain about steady state it appears, though the ridge axis over the Florida Straits will lift to the Okeechobee region in coming days which will affect mostly South and South Central in that the immediate coasts might be devoid of rains other than earlier in the day.

GFS implies warming mid-level temperatures further up stream which would greatly reduce storm strength and coverage despite ample moisture, but that's another BIG IF so persistence would seem to be the best bet for contiuned normal storm strength coverage until that time comes, if ever.

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Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Atypical Rain/Storm Day in Progress ~ Gusty Winds Possible Later Today Near Some Activity

Storm Moving Out to Sea -  Canopy shown in bottom left was 'destroyed' by a later storm from the west
TODAY: Atypical situation at hand not surprisingly either. 

Tandem MCCs rotated around High Pressure over Texas yesterday across Illinois, Missouri into Tennessee and the Carolina's and were heading south to southeast late yesterday. 

The resultant storm 'debris' is noted over Florida at time of sunrise and accompanying large OFB (outflow boundary) has already generated showers and thunder over North Florida which began before sunrise just off the NW Florida Coast. 

This area will slowly work south but guidance might be having a hard time discerning just exactly how far south it will get versus falling apart. 

Regardless, said activity more than likely will result in additional small OFBs (outflow boundaries) that will process their way south and eastward in the west to east mid level synoptic scale flow flow.

Meanwhile, south of I-4 and more so along and south of the Beach Line route to Sarasota as the crow flies....afternoon heating with some clearing skies is already starting and will provide the impetus for a bit of a mix of circumstance especially north of West Palm Beach - resulting in a blend of the old OFB from the north with the more typical daytime heating/storm regime.

Upper level temperatures are a bit warmer than  'strong storm' days, but not so warm that some wet micro-burst winds could not occur as shown on the Meso-scale Analysis page given the amount of already available PWAT air (Precipitable Water values), courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman , Oklahoma;  however, the 'potential' is on the very low end of the scale. 

Given current conditions, wind gusts in the 45mph to 56mph range could occur later today, but only in a very isolated fashion with more of the 25-38 mph puffs being the norm near stronger activity , especially after 2pm *which might be ore toward Eastern South Central. 

Rains could persist into late afternoon especially South Central Florida where cloudier skies would persist elsewhere.

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: More typical type activities though pointing toward particular regions in pockets of deepest moisture, but just exactly where those might be is a tough call. Guidance implies a remnant frontal
boundary to move off the east coast will leave sort of a 'ghost trough' near Central Florida which might act as a focus for more concentrated activities for two days namely Friday and Saturday.

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Monday, July 13, 2015

Potential for some Isolated Showers to Strong Storms Appears to Exist Today

TODAY; Brief post today as subtle changes continue in the works. High pressure in mid to upper levels continues a slow retrograding retreat toward the West and will about complete this phase today before being eroded on it's eastern flank (over Florida) tomorrow and in the days to follow. As noted previously, the amount of moisture through the column will need to be sufficient through a deep enough lower for instability to overcome any particular 'dry slots' in the mid levels (combined with lower level moisture/wind  convergence along lake/sea/outflow boundaries.

The dry slots are conducive for strong storms with downdraft winds being quite gusty to very strong, but with insufficient instability and proper convergence dynamics at play little more than clouds would be able to manifest.

The morning KSC sounding as a sample test bed came in more moist with stronger west to east wind at the lowest levels than the forecast RAP model sounding portrayed. The forecast RAP model then goes on to show mainly only showers over the state today except interior South Florida where strong storms appear most likely. The NAM (North American Model) tea leaves read the same and includes a spot up toward Flagler County in general late today to work south into Volusia county well after dark. Elsewhere, guidance in general was agreeing on mainly showers other locations. 

Persistence from the past days would have to agree with this scenario; however, the morning KSC sounding was not what guidance portrayed which makes for a problem. Will that sounding be representative of a larger of enough area for storm/shower develop or was it more localized in nature at just that specific point in time?  High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) magic eight ball shakes each hour are showing Low Coverage today and nothing even close to strong storms if even thunderstorms at all but mainly over the Everglades region. Question flags hoisted to full mast.

The proof of the pudding is in the sampling which the sounding did taste but that still does not answer the underlying inquiry concerning the other 99.99 percent of the state. Was not able to gain access to sounding data on line from other locations, but the other NWS offices are all hitting on strong storms today (state wide). 

This post therefore takes all of these factors into consideration but is playing it on the conservative side. Conditions were over-forecast yesterday as it was ; therefore, this post and pseudo-forecast (as usual) is only a representation of areas that could potentially receive a  shower, thunder. or strong storm but does not represent a high likelihood of any one location experiencing any of them. If other soundings are 'like' the KSC one, that chance would be increased (however).

The entire Florida east coast is in a slight drought condition though hardly 'drought' would qualify to describe it just yet, other than parts of far Southeast Florida

BEYOND: The same scenario plays out most of the week as models continue to show mainly isolated shower and storms over the state. By late week toward Friday into most of the following week there is a big shift though with a return to greater rain/storm coverage as the ridge to the west de-amplifies and no longer has such an inhibitive influence in the upper levels over Florida which is on the descendant side of its clockwise circulation. As it stands now, many parts of the state could see needed rainfall late week into early next week with a return to much more typical July like thunderstorm activities, which means ironically the longer range forecast as it appears now is a simpler forecast in regard to rainfall coverage  than the short range dilemma.

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Saturday, July 11, 2015

The July of Dry To Become More Stormy Into Next Week

Birds Appear to Split the Scene as Thunder Roars at Lone Cabbage Fish Camp Several Days Ago

TODAY: Gradually emerging and anticipated (for several days now) pattern shift in progress, though the more deliberate change is slow to manifest it will be likely noted today over parts of the state. High pressure that has been stretched from the Atlantic across North Florida accompanied with drier than normal air  to be pinched off at the mid-level across the state will gradually retrograde in part toward North Central to NW Texas in the next few days as some upper level 'trough-iness' gradually works down the Eastern Sea board. This appears to be a bottom up - top down process that will take some time and guidance is very sketchy as a result on where the best depth of atmospheric moisture will reside each day. 

For today, some strong to near or pulse severe storms are possible as noted in the graphic.

SUNDAY: Area of possible storms also of pulse strong to 'near severe ' are possible over an expanse further south and east with a delayed east coast sea breeze. Steering aloft will be from the north but will be interrupted and distorted by the outflow boundaries and spotty moisture both from a remnant cold front which emerged off the east coast days ago and some moisture working in from the far south. The NAM model has been insistent on larger coverage than the GFS which is a reversal from what is usually the case so question flags arise immediately on to what exactly is going on.

For now it looks like most of the beaches will remain dry though storms might be visible to the west from the coast and some cooling outflow might reach the beaches as well prior to night fall. Best chances of rains will be along to west of I-95 into Seminole, Volusia, Orange, and Osceola Counties and into North Florida and perhaps extending down into North parts of Okeechobee county and west though closer to the coast to just offshore north of Daytona Beach is possible.

NEXT WEEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Off shore morning winds (from the westerly direction) will have worked up to the mid levels delaying sea breezes as mornings warm. Temperatures aloft will be a bit warmer more than likely but pulse strong possible somewhere along the eastern half of the state late in the day or even into mid-evening are possible but wide-spread convection does not at this time appear likely. It will as a result be more on the isolated to widely scattered garden variety type storm situation except in isolated cases but the east coast beach locations will at least have a chance of seeing some drought relief that they are in right now.

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Sunday, July 5, 2015

Low End Severe Storms Possible Late Afternoon Interior & East Later

"Morning stroll"

TODAY: Much of what was in place yesterday remains the same in regard to placements of the surface ridge and winds aloft. Temperatures aloft are about the same however the sounding is more moist that yesterday at KSC and the convective temperature is only 89F; low level instability even at this hour is already much more unstable as well. 

Radar shows a line of showers and storms associated with the mid-level trough progressing east early this morning already and short range model shows it will continue to do so and end up aligned with the north/south down the peninsula line almost perfectly timed with when the sea breezes converge.
The cold air aloft, sea breeze mergers aid by this additional feature could result in much greater of coverage and more strong to even severe storms today mainly interior

Additional leeway, though, was added to in this post - given the overall nature of this set up that outflow and/or propagation could press additional storm formation to the east as the east coast sea breeze relaxes later to east of I-95 - therefore, would include the regions south of I4 and along to east of I95 to the beaches for possible strong storms after 7pm.  

Again, the regions around Port Charlotte give or take 30 miles north or south could also see a severe storm today or at least a strong one. Storms could produced hail up to 1.00" (or slightly more) but the strong category of gusts toward 50mph and dime sized hail seems to generally be what most would see in the 'worser' cases.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Storm coverage might decrease and bit and shift more and more toward the west half of the state leaving the east coast high and dry but will continue to watch the GFS has it flails around with the future-cast .  The GFS over night shifted gears to a long term trend of activity moving from the east to the west which is just the opposite of 48 hours ago.

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Saturday, July 4, 2015

Chance of Strong-Pulse Severe Far Interior Later Today, Many Showers Elsewhere

Pileus Crowns The Head of a Majestic Storm on the 4th of July, 2014

TODAY: Will leave it brief but to say a few flies possible in the ointment today. Early activity SE Florida will work north and dwindle as outflow propagates up the east coast sea breeze front. West coast sea breeze to be slow to move far from the coast as will the east coast sea breeze until mid afternoon at least. There was what appeared to be a 'vorticity max' over South Central per visible satellite imagery earlier but the clouds that were 'swirling' in the animation associated with it are dissipating ; but if that was a vort max could see a greater cluster of storms further to the east of Central than earlier guidance was showing. 

The SPC Meso-scale analysis page was showing something there earlier. and as of 11AM shows it much smaller and located over North Brevard which is a bit too far east still but close appears it will lift more NE with time and gradually dissipate but still might have some residual effects this afternoon. 

Otherwise, today is much like yesterday in most regards. Temperature profile aloft is about the same and some severe sized hail was reported toward the West Central Side. The SW portion of the state again it seems will grab the lime light today but parts of Central (mainly South Central) could also get into the action. Other activity along the sea-breezes might produce some sound affects audible even at the coast or close to up and down locations along US-1 (even if the rain falls further west).

Steering is very slow, so most apparent motion will be induced by random anomalous propagation along pre-existing or storm induced outflow boundaries merging with lake breezes.

Activity could last into the night fall hours in the form of some isolated storms while lasting rainfall   might dampen out potential fire works as it drifts possibly toward and over the coast in a few areas but exactly where is impossible to say.

SUNDAY: Appears a continued chance of storms as well.

BEYOND: Not too much change but could be a slower day toward Tuesday or Wednesday time frame into Thursday before picking up again, perhaps if the GFS is correct. That is , to to be more specific, the GFS model shows a fairly active period toward the end of next week into next weekend with even the east coast locations getting storms moving off shore. Chances are it will flail around with the settings until it gets more fine tuned.

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Friday, July 3, 2015

Isolated to Widely Scattered Inland Storms Today ?

Cape Canaveral Late Thursday Afternoon
TODAY: Appears storms today will be less available for the General Public's amusement from yesterday's light and wind show as it stands as of 8AM at least. A gust of 70mph was recorded at MCO (airport - Orlando). 

The KSC sounding came in with CAP strength of 3, less over all atmospheric moisture spread evenly up the column, though temps aloft remain about the same. It's the moisture distribution that is the issue, so unless that changes and that particular condition is representative of a large area...then storms will be harder to come by for the most part.

Noting that guidance has shifted around quite a bit over the past several hours and has, in general, been on a downward trend since earlier this morning. But will the tides turn for a reversal as the morning wears into the afternoon? It always could but will go with what can be found at this hour and let the chips fall where they may...which is about what the case ends up being anyway.

Radar images from yesterday afternoon. Yellow boxes are severe thunderstorm warnings.

THIS AFTERNOON: Some showers could form along the east coast sea breeze but not expecting much more than that, steering remains to the east per the sounding though which was a bit not what I was expecting to see from what the models were showing...another fly in the ointment. Steering toward the east at around 10 knts...but expect delayed initiation though there is little to no inversion this morning  but the convective temperature was 92F ..the sky is brighter..which would spell noon time initiation..but if moisture isn't right...there will be nothing to initiate which is an issue. All holds barred to the lower coverage, would point to inland coverage boundaries mainly late across the Western Glades and parts of SW Florida then up along I27 mainly into Lake County / Ocala and down toward Bok Tower and some points further east to the Western MCO suburbs. Perhaps weaker activity dead Central to eastern side a bit but the focus should be later with a prevailing east coast sea breeze as the day wears on.

NOTE: It is possible that areas outlined to the north will shift more toward the east to Western Volusia south toward Sanford, down town MCO toward Central Osceola but not holding any bets on that this hour

WEEKEND: Today might be a 'dry slot' day as noted above, but not so sure that indicates a trend. Would continue with inland chances of showers/storms and in general, very 'summer - typical' with a few strong storms with slightly colder than the norm temperatures aloft but won't go into details in regard to timing and location at this juncture.

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Thursday, July 2, 2015

Are Isolated Pulse Severe/Strong Possible Again Today?

are close to the same as were for yesterday - Near Severe Late SW - Parts of Central also "Possible"
and Perhaps Panhandle as well..any storms to move off east coast 'would' be late if at all

NOTE: "Possible" means possible not probable
TODAY: KSC sounding came in with near -8.5C and 6.5C at 500 and 700mb respectively at a quick eye-balling glance per the SMG (Space Meteorology Group) web link. Forecast convective available potential energy (CAPE) is near moderate though suspect in the early to mid afternoon it might dwindle a bit. Yesterday there was a CAP strength of 4 (presumably) but today it is zero. Yesterday the convective temperature was 94F and today it is 92F. Early this morning it looked a bit hazy like there was subsidence in the lower levels, at least around the beaches. That implies stability which should break but not likely well enough as the sea breezes emerge and shift in land.

What this spells out is some earlier initiation for some areas and that is the case over SE Florida. There was one report of ping pong balls (1.50" hail) yesterday with several .70 -.88 inch dimes and nicklels. It does rain money afterall~ ! Not sure we'll go for a par with golf balls but who knows. Then again, it's Florida and much depends on low level convergence and proper timing. There was a report of a 'large' waterspout off shore Indialantic Beach yesterday as well.  

07/01/2015  FL   TRAINED SPOTTER   

Radar Image Late Afternoon with Two Severe Warnings in Yellow Boxes

The net estimate is, perhaps the same for today but evolving in whatever way it will be. There is no real info out there to say otherwise, though moisture profile is a bit different aloft and that could change everything but will go with 

BEYOND: The ridge axis at the surface will lift toward Central Direct by Friday 
into Saturday but aloft it remains a bit to the south. Thus, steering continues toward the east side north of Fort Pierce or Vero Beach but very slowly..the net 
effect would be in general to keep storms pegged west to near I-95 with perhaps a drift to the east coast later, or increasing cloud coverage at least.

Fourth of July continues to show for about a 40-50% percent coverage inland 
late afternoon and early evening. Any showers or thunder close to the east 
coast would occur earlier in the day (as it stands now).

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Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Chance of Isolated Strong Storms (Wind) Today Parts of Central/South - However.....

AS OF 8:15AM Satellite Animation shows a cluster of storms/rain moving ESE steadily in the Eastern Gulf. Suspect it will dwindle but stranger things have happened 
TODAY: A bit of a variation of yesterday, and tomorrow will be a bit the same as today.  But sandwiched into between this larger time scale frame comes this potential anomaly moving  across the Eastern Gulf. How long it will remain together is hard to say but in some way it could directly or even indirectly throw a few 'screws and loops loose'  in the forecast for later today -- but taking that into consideration in the 'otherwise realm'...

Fairly good consistence is that most concentrations of activity today will be Central and South Florida for one reason and along North Florida for another . That disturbance in the Gulf might in fact be a part of the 'contribution' for this afternoon. A little gift so to speak.

 Morning KSC sounding indicated two factors which would spell out near ZERO CHANCE of rain today with a CAP strength of 4 which is unbreakable and convective temperature of 94F. This means one of two things...either a contributing factor is going to  replace the air mass or it won't rain today even anywhere near by, OR the sounding messed up. 

 Model guidance says otherwise though consistently. Rains today, with some possibly strong storms as the sounding came in with -9C at 500mb and around 5C at 700mb which is cold compared to say a standard mid summer day when 500mb might be around -2-  -5C and 700mb closer to 10C...

With some drier air around spatially oriented randomly though, any cold air plummeting earthward could produce some hefty winds in initial fall of heavy rain fall and nearby as well. Sea breezes should stick fairly close to the coast north of Ft Pierce in general..but believe also that any sea-breeze will be quite shallow in the vertical depth category given the wind profiles shown at least at The KSC. 

Activity should be later today as well if the sounding is reflective of the surrounding areas. Later today could be a bit of an 'adventure' in some areas ..with potent lightning bolts, strong winds, and maybe even a few 'peas or dimes'...if possible.

THURSDAY: Thursday looks a bit similar to today, but time will tell. No two days are exactly the same in this pattern, especially for North Florida where they might have a better chance of storms again tomorrow. Yesterday most if not all the severe reports came out of the North Florida region. Today does not look like that will be the case. Eyeing Central and SW Florida specifically.

BEYOND-THE 4TH WEEKEND: Increasing chance of rain from previous posts. The GFS is shifting gears and not lifting the ridge axis as far north as was supposed previously..and that was for many runs too. 

It is now depicting a situation for good sea breeze convergence with a steering toward the east side. Whatever moisture availability there is in the atmosphere come this weekend will determine storm coverage but for now it looks very typical with a 40-50% chance for the forecasts, but that is only at passing glance view for now. Official info is as always from the National Weather Service Offices.

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