"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 24, 2015

"Early Onset" Today- Saturday - More than One Round of Thunder Possible

Early Evening - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not many surprises today. Low pressure located just off the coast of North Carolina has a poorly defined surface 'front' / boundary trailing westward from it which will be drifting south into Florida late weekend. Meanwhile, SW surface flow should sustain well enough to prevent east coast sea breeze formation while winds aloft curve more toward the west through northwest. Atmosphere looks primed and ready for action  first along the west side but could pop up just about anywhere by 11AM or so once convective temperatures are reached  - with better heating by noon might see the onset of the bulk of activity start to pop between 12:30pm to 1:30pm and continue to do so and work south and east into parts of South Central and South Florida as well. 

Energy-Helicity (EHI) , not something you hear much about over Florida in the summer,  is looking to be rather well above the norm  (which is usually very low and not mentioned much in posts) in value today across all of North Central Florida. This might help maintain storms or give an extra boost to their rainfall and/or lightning potential. 

Temperatures aloft are rather warm toward the norm for late July so strong wind gusts though not anticipated could occur especially early to mid afternoon with the onset of any one location's first storm activity before the local atmosphere gets 'worked over'.  

Some areas might see more than one storm today (especially parts from I-10 south toward a line from Vero Beach to Tampa Bay.

SUNDAY: Perhaps a variation of the same theme with again, an early onset. Some of the same areas that receive any heavy rain today could again receive it tomorrow; as such, some localized 'flood statements' for those areas prone to that affect might be issued.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Things slow down a bit to a lot depending on which model one prefers. The NAM is now taking up with the old GFS solution of several days ago driving the front through Central Florida - the GFS and Euro Model (ECMWF) do not imply that will be the case though.

Either way, after Saturday the activities begin to wane and modify in character. This would be expected anyway this time of year as patterns shift slowly but surely with time adding some sublime variations to the menu.  

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