"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, March 7, 2011

Cooler Today Statewide, Especially East Of US-1 North of Cocoa Beach

Image: Roseatte Spoonbills at the Merritt Island Wildlife taken after Christmas time. No meteorological items of interest in Central/South Florida on the maps this morning for today worth noting, see discussions below.

TODAY:  Cold front has cleared the state this morning. Coldest temperatures in the low 40Fs and a few upper 30Fs in far NW and North Florida, warming  mid 50s most other areas...with some upper 50Fs thrown in. Winds have become NW-NNW with some overcast sky conditions currently over NW Central, partly cloudy to clear most everywhere else. Cirrus clouds are streaming in from the WNW to NW to affect North Central later this morning through early afternoon, at least.

Otherwise, along the coast of East Central and NE Florida some Atlantic stratocumulus clouds are looming just off shore NE Brevard to onshore NE Florida.  Earliest frames of visible satellite animation shows them encroaching on NE Brevard north of 528, and they already have up by St. Augustine.  Winds this morning to remain NNW to North through early afternoon at least most everywhere, eventually veering to NNE mid-late afternoon. Not so sure they will ever reach the coast today, since further atmospheric drying will occur this afternoon which would erode them before impact the coast.

Only stickler today is the high temperatures east of US1 from roughly SR 520 to Jacksonville. Most other areas will see highs in the lower-mid 70s, warmest SW Florida, and likely the coolest for the area mentioned in the previous sentence.  Ocean temperatures are running in the low-upper 60s in this zone, so with an onshore wind component later today, expected high clouds and POSSIBLY greater influx of low level stratocumulus late afternoon off-setting to some degree normal afternoon heating, looking for highs here in the mid-upper 60Fs, but wouldn't be surprised to see some renegade 63-66F degree readings seeing how cold air advection is still underway at 9AM over North Central and North Florida.

Iron Horse is 100% 'contained', but that does not mean it is out. It is still quite smoky near the embers, and portions of I-95 have been closed in North Brevard/South Volusia since after midnight. As of this writing some areas of Southbound remains closed. Expect they will open up entirely before noon, but visibility will remain restricted in this area.  It smells  faintly smoky in Cape Canaveral this morning, but this should diminish shortly as winds veer more northerly. Probably the worse of it will be along routes 46 and 50 east of Orlando this afternoon, smoke diminishing the further south one gets.

TONIGHT: Continued gradual veering of winds from NNE-ENE overnight. Cool inland temperatures in the mid-50s (colder far North Central and North).  East coast east of US-1 will moderate after midnight, particularly south of False Cape (or from Port Canaveral and south) along A1A. Coolest temperatures here should occur between shortly after sunset to 2 or 3AM (upper 50Fs), warming to 62-65F degrees near sunrise south of Port Canaveral.  

TUESDAY: Winds remain generally from the East all day at 10-15mph during the afternoon at the coast, lighter inland. Warmer inland with highs in the mid-upper 70s, coastal (A1A) highs north of Sebastian in the lower to mid 70s, warming to mid-upper 70s pretty much state wide everywhere else, including Panhandle. Possible light showers far SE Coast near Miami Metro. Afternoon Cumulus humilis clouds along and west of I-95 *see below.

WEDNESDAY: Winds become more SE-SSE late and increase 12-18mph during the afternoon under scattered clouds, nearly clear some areas east of I-95 where stratocumulus clouds cease to advect on to the coast from the Atlantic. Daytime heating/weak instability would be the catalyst for low topped afternoon cumulus humilis clouds such as these pictured below, perhaps a little larger this day to low topped cumulus:

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Big storm maker from East Texas and through all of the Deep South will be approaching Florida late Tuesday afternoon, moving into the Panhandle overnight Wednesday night/early Thursday.  Rain chances ramp up by Wednesday evening West Coast and Panhandle. Early indicators reflect perhaps two pre-frontal waves/chances of rain showers North Central/North Florida prior to the actual cold front passing through Thursday (sometime between 11AM-3PM).  

Both the NAM and GFS are showing a spurious / suspicious area of rain breaking out near Sarasota over night Wednesday that translates across the state and exits the east coast somewhere between Port Canaveral - Daytona Beach prior to sunrise, Thursday. Should this manifest, it bears watching in regards to strong/severe weather. Chances are it never will materialize, but this bears watching since the wind fields at the time will be becoming increasingly favorable for at least mid-level rotation. Instability won't be an issue in regards to being a contributing factor for strong activity, and even with increasingly marginally favorable wind fields, it will only be rain with perhaps some elevated thunder.

THURSDAY: Going to leave out timing of fronts and boundaries for now, as this will change with every model run up until actual arrival, which as events have unraveled so far this year, will likely not happen as any of the models show they will anyway right up until it actually arrives. 

Case in point, yesterday as well as the day we were in the "Tornado Watch" several weeks ago. Looks good on paper but that's about it. Suffice it to say for now, rain 'chances' look pretty good for North Central and North Florida the first half of Thursday daylight. Spreading toward South Florida by mid-afternoon through sunset. Isolated thunder is again possible, with strongest activity Central from 10:30AM - 2PM.

FRIDAY: BY now rain chances end everywhere with a bonafide cold frontal passage. Could be looking at lows in the mid-upper 40Fs as far south as interior toward Lake Okeechobee. Then again, as the GFS has over estimated the extent of cold air intrusions in the extended period  all winter I'm not ready to latch on to numbers. But it will be cooler for a few mornings Friday thru early portions of the weekend. Let's hope it does rain as much as models are showing though (1/4" -1/2" in general). Chances for more rain in the extended look dismally low as we enter the climatological peak of the Dry Season going into April.

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