"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 30, 2019

Pattern Changed Overnight: Risk of Late Storms , Less Cloud Cover

June 30, 2018, Cape Canaveral 
TODAY: Pattern change began late yesterday and will be in full swing by noon time today. That being, surface and steering winds aloft have swung around to more of a southwest through northwest (aloft) component, as opposed to easterly through southerly. So in essence, today is a totally different day from the past two days...

It's too early as of this writing to know what temperatures aloft are doing, though the short range RAP indicates some cooling aloft might occur later in the day toward evening. 

It appears we might see a 'state divided' today, with  the South Half and Panhandle going mainly 'earlier in the period' with the North - East Side of the state going up (with activity) mainly later in the day into the early evening. Appears a weak vorticity slot (upper energy) might rotate across North /North Central early evening.

Net effect between solely sea/lake breeze driven activity over the southern portions of the state, while the east coast north of the area around Vero Beach toward Melbourne Beach might not see much going on other than an isolated shower/storm or two until late afternoon into early evening (maybe even after 8 pm ) .

TUESDAY: Things will continue to change as high pressure begins to take on a greater influence, with steering beginning to shift favoring solely the interior and eventually west side of the state. There will also be 'some' drying, but not enough to suppress  showers/storms completely albeit in the presence of warmer air aloft as well, thus reducing storm strength. High temperatures (mainly west of I95 could reach mid-upper 90Fs for a few days , e.g. 'Sanford')

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: It looks unlikely the East side of the state will see any rain mid-late week with steering favoring the far interior to west side, in a reduced fashion. 4th of July looks dry for folks in the east.

NEXT WEEKEND and BEYOND: This is too far out for accuracy, though currently inclinations and given the time of year, wouldn't hold on to a 'dry forecast' for long. Saturday could be the beginning of an upward trend for storms progressing eastward across the state -- taking hold to that trend through much of 'next' week (not this upcoming one). Time will tell.

No comments:

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Isolated Strong Storms Late over the Interior

Strong Thunderstorm over West Cocoa off SR524, June 24, 2015
TODAY: A little more moisture in place today than yesterday, the missing ingredient from yesterday. Otherwise, not much has changed from previous days in wind and temperature fields surface and aloft  .

That being said , warm again today  with highs in the lower to mid-90Fs many areas, with a sea breeze to develop in the early to mid afternoon as it  zips up the coast from South Florida.

The West Coast sea breeze will also work inland, with both to meet somewhere in the vicinity of straight down the spine of the state in the early evening hours.

Temperatures aloft are 'cool' (but not relatively speaking, 'cold') and Convective instability with a CAPE up to 4000 and Lifted Index possibly down to -11 coupled with moisture convergence along and ahead of the approaching 'fronts' (sea breezes) spells out that the convection oven will be baking a a few pies and cookies today. 

Watch out for the Wedding Cake! (no, no wedding cakes today, the winds aloft are too weak for multi-tiered  rotating updrafts).

Best rain chances in from the immediate coast, though debris clouds might wash back over toward the coast late afternoon into evening with light rain in some locations mainly north of Brevard County.

WEDNESDAY:  A similar type of day but further from the east coast.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: All these days favor interior toward the west coast.

PATTERN CHANGE begins SUNDAY into MONDAY; Moisture will be available in 'patchy mode' ,  so where the best moisture will be this far out in time is impossible to know, hence cannot spell out any particularly favored regions.

 Winds will have veered more from easterly at the  surface and aloft (from Thursday and Friday) to SSE (Saturday) and eventually S-SW with time by Sunday through Tuesday, which will favor the east coast rather than the west. 

Temperatures aloft might warm up as well , however, which would greatly minimize threats of 'strong storms' but not necessarily lightning presence

No comments:

Sunday, June 23, 2019

'Poof! Just Like That': A Vanishing Rain Chance Act - Means More Heat

June 23rd, 2015 - Prolific Arcus Feat Entombed Cape Canaveral
TODAY: The long and short of it today is - 'Change of Plans'.
 In less than 24 hours the 'heralded rain chance per the GFS for days' suddenly vanished. 

The short range guidance so far is following in line. There is a glimmer of hope for those who want a 'cool down' from now what will otherwise result in being another hot day (warmer than yesterday inland since there will be less cloud cover from yesterday), however.

 Instability will be strong today and lapse rates rather steep both in the lower and mid levels. Now there is all things working for us to produce storms, but one minor problem - lack of overall moisture up through the mid-levels right where the steep lapse rates will be today, as 500mb temperatures might fall nearly to -10C (a good ingredient for strong/severe storms). 

The short term guidance is showing the chances of some 'showers' going up late in the day along the east coast sea breeze, but whether that be 'showers', an 'enhanced batch of clouds', or a 'full blown storm' cannot be known at this stage. Going with persistence , will go with 'clouds'. If we see showers some lucky few will see them in from the coast. If per chance a full blown storm goes up, look out! If any do, they (or it) will be very isolated.

Temperature wise, another warm one today but for the coast where the east coast sea breeze will lower the 'what would be otherwise' temperature by a good 10F. 

Mid-afternoon temperatures yesterday for example right near the coast under the cloud cover were around 84F, but with full sun today even that will be warmer today. Away from the sea breeze, different story with dangerous heat indices, and highs in the mid-90Fs possibly even higher.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, these days are now coming in drier (and warmer) as a result. The heat continues 

WEDNESDAY-BEYOND: Details sketchy, but in general appears to approach a more typical 'summer like regime'. Sea breeze convergence over the interior. Folks at the coast remain dry other than possibly along Southeast Florida area (mainly south of Ft Pierce) whereLake - Sea Breeze induced activity might be able to get under way. Steering aloft will be close to nothing so would not expect to see a good 'push back' to the coast (either West or East Coast).

THE Next pattern change is showing up (for now) to begin next weekend, with a more definite push of activity toward and off the east coast. At least for now that is how it looks.

TROPICS: No hints of any tropical threats and wouldn't expect to see any now until we reach August. June ended up being a 'tropical dud' with only one 'questionably' named 'system'.

No comments:

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Strong Storms Possible Sunday Eastern Portions of North Central

Storm Clouds Over Cape Canaveral - June 22, 2018
TODAY: Another hot day in store, with highs a few degrees above 'normal'. No record highs expected nor have any been set across the state, though many official reporting stations have come to a degree or two of tying a record high the past two days. Granted, 'record highs' this time of year aren't all 'that' much higher than the normal as it is. But 4-6 degrees coupled with Heat Indices (the real story) is nothing to mess with for health related issues , the elderly, and the young alike.

There is an area of higher clouds over the Central/ Eastern Gulf that is attempting to spread eastward early this morning; whether they will wash over the state or not could make all the difference come the 2-5 pm time frame temperature wise. 

If they do wash over, highs might be held at bay - but in general will probably not make much of a difference either way. 

The East Coast might experience a 'sea breeze' today which would make a huge difference to those mainly along or only east of US1  - though looks like from Brevard northward it will be a delayed one (sometime around 3pm or later).

SUNDAY: The GFS has advertised for several days, and just overnight the NAM has come in line,    the risk of thunderstorms mainly along the East Coast from The FL/GA border southward into Volusia county. 

The 4KM NAM has a 'small cluster' of storms making a NNW to SSE trek, but takes it off the southeast Georgia Coast into the Atlantic Ocean rather than down the coast. For now, will discount that solution.

With cold air aloft and moderately high Convective Available instability, coupled with what will be strong low level lapse rates, would watch for 'strong/potential briefly severe' storm or two from near Jax toward Daytona Beach. 

How far south this activity proceeds southward (assuming it even exists) is in question. The area from Cape Canaveral toward Melbourne beach might see cloud cover move in only, or perhaps very light rain (or maybe a bit more) very late in the afternoon into early evening; it's just not possible to know. 

The greater risk will be from Central Volusia northward.

MONDAY: High pressure that has been position too far close overhead (thus, our high temperatures and suppressed atmosphere) will have made it's fullest 'westward retreat' away from the state. This day might be similar to Sunday but with greater coverage though in the same general area as Sunday. 

Will need to re-evaluate Monday during the next two days though, but there is a chance of some stronger storms also only they will be able to manifest further west into the state rather than only along the East Coast and a bit further south as well from however Sunday pans out. 

The GFS is showing a 'cold pool' of surface temperatures late in the day over all of East Central Florida indicating some 'good rains' have fallen; that being from South of I4 to north of Sebastian inlet, including eastern portions of the adjacent interior counties.

TUESDAY: High pressure retreats further west but also north and expands. IF that is the case, we will enter a easterly flow regime favoring the Interior and West coast for storm activity, leaving the east coast 'high and dry'. 

By Monday/Tuesday the unusually warm temperatures will be  over with.

All in all, come Tuesday and beyond indicates a more typical summer type of pattern (of which there are several). 

Earlier indications were that we'd be in for 'all storms in the interior where the sea breezes meet' but that indication went away over night. Perhaps it's too early to make any kind of concrete assertion  in regard to Tuesday and beyond.

 If we do see an onset of more easterly flow, there might also be a day or two here or there when significantly drier air is imported across the state, greatly reducing rain chances more everywhere regardless of where the sea breezes meet, meaning lower rain chances.

In Summary, very warm with dangerous heat indices two more days, chance of storms (some strong) close to the Northeast Quadrant of the state Sunday and Monday, and from Tuesday on..normal temperatures and rain chances (varying in location depending on the synoptic (large scale) set up at hand.

No comments:

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Potential Exists for 'Stronger' Storms Today

Storm Encroaching on Cape Canaveral - June 18, 2019
TODAY:  Although most atmospheric parameters are similar to yesterday after a slow start, the overall 'synoptic scale set up for the state' is quite a bit different. 

Hence, storm activity will be getting going and prolong for a repertoire for different reasons from yesterday.

The Convective Temperature near noon per the KSC Sounding over East Central is up to 91F, which means 'late start' or that nothing will likely 'initiate in that area' given the current temperatures. The NAM and to some degree GFS model are analyzing a "mid level vort lobe' (atmosphere 'energy' / vorticity)  to cross Central Florida later this afternoon. If so, this could contribute to storm strength and/or coverage. 

Additionally, the pressure gradient in the vertically aloft is a bit tighter resulting in slightly stronger winds aloft.  Precipitable water values are running about the same, but a bit lower on the KSC sounding from what it was earlier this morning, down to 1.92" from 2.02' due to a slight drying aloft. 

With faster forward motion of storms today combined with perhaps that region of drier air (East Central) at least as far as the area around The Kennedy Space Center goes there is a risk that a storm or two could exhibit wind gusts at 50 mph + '.

Storms Impacting the Florida East Central Coast on Tuesday

South Central Florida is the fly in the ointment region since there was activity down that way earlier today and cloud cover still exists which would have stabilized the region. An outflow boundary was visible moving southward into Dade County setting off more activity -- but it appears that the area is recovering okay as of noon time and as such might still be able to 'wake back up again' produce storms later today as well.

Additionally, instead of activity going up along the West Coast Sea Breeze only, there is already convection going across North Florida (north of I4) instead. This area will likely result in an outflow boundary pressing southward coincidentally  the west coast sea breeze as it also pushes toward the east side of the state.

Arrows pointing to 'key areas ' today to watch for

Net result is that IF all those factors come together, strong storms would be possible. 

At time, the most likely area that seems this might be the case is Eastern Orange/Seminole/South Half Volusia, North Half Osceola, and Most of Brevard County -- that is to say, 'somewhere' in that area.

Other stronger storms could form further north as it is mostly north of Brevard that those stronger winds (albeit not by much ) exist aloft to Eastern Volusia/Flagler/Jax area.

As usual, the greater threat will be  lightning ..especially that which either precedes or follows the main rain activity or that comes out near storms prior to rainfall in any given area. 

THURSDAY- SATURDAY: Much lower rain chance all three days. Really, almost non-existent for the most part but for some very isolated area or two. The area most likely to see rainfall will be North Florida / Panhandle region. There is a small (very small) chance of a shower or storm toward the East Coast Late in the day (mainly) any of these days, north of the 528 Cswy up toward JAX and far South Florida. Mostly likely though, we won't be seeing much going on weather wise other than warm temperatures but for North Florida.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Strong Storms possible Sunday mainly north of Highway 60 (Ft Pierce area). Monday might also hold that risk. Too soon to say.

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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Just like that, Pattern Change ! : Heavy Thunderstorms East Coast Mid-Late Afternoon

On This Day, 2015 ..Thunderhead offshore Cape Canaveral
TODAY:  Big change today from the past two days. 

While all slept winds aloft and at the surface became uniformly  more SW to WSWerly...shifting from Southeast to SSE from the past two days. 

Today will be quite a different day for most experientially along the east coast especially, no longer being daunted by early day cloud cover (for the most part) and/or wet grounds. Instead, today will take on the tenor of an 'early onset of storms with many areas being periodically affected by a rain shower or storm'.

Steering is from the 'west to east' at about 20 mph, but from the looks of the KSC Sounding they might not be strong enough at 2000 -3000 feet to offset the sea breeze from forming, or at least it appears a  'side shore' type component sea breeze might be able to establish near Central Brevard through 'the outer regions of the Cape'. Such set ups with a easterly steering often sets up for 'stronger' and/or heavier thunderstorms in the Oak Hill - Sanford - Port St. John triangle to as far south as 'Canaveral' at times.

Assuming that the modified sea breeze will be able to form ( and that is conditional   that the west coast sea breeze holds off it's eastward march across the state to reach I-95 not until around 3-4 pm) that could be the case today. if it does form anywhere along the east coast, it will not make much inland progress. This is relatively crucial for just exactly what nature storm activity will take as it cross the east coast communities. if a sea breeze does form all kinds of unpredictable things can suddenly happen. If not, activity will just slide off shore rather inconsequential with out anything beyond the 'norm'.

Temperatures aloft at 500mb are running around -7 C ; 700 mb ,7.5-8 C --  just a bit below (cooler) than a 'summer day'. 

With good heating and moderately strong Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to build up and mount with ample heating and a convective temperature of 88F per the KSC sounding, it will be easy in the absence of convective inhibition and PWAT air running around 2.15" to get the clouds and showers going.

Storm motion speed could limit overall rainfall totals in any one location, but with such HIGH PWAT air-mass in place, I would not be surprised if some rainfall totals come in to over 1.5" in a short amount of time, especially if the sea breeze sets up and outflows meet resulting in a back building cluster somewhere. 

Some of the water table seems to have gone down (at least it has in the Canaveral area) thankfully, but any area prone to localized ponding/flooding from heavy rainfall and poor drainage might be effected today. Granted,  the majority of locations will not see such kind of rainfall (most will not).

The bigger 'threat' as usual, will  be lightning. 

Severe weather does not look likely but isolated gustier winds from water loading might be an issue as storms initially usher forth from above their 'watery downspouts', especially in areas with the longest heating prior to onset of storm activity.

WEDNESDAY: Similar scenario might well take place. There will be a 'drying out ' period over night and the overall PWAT air mass will depart to the east; but another air mass of richer moisture is poised to approach the state early in the day; all this will be transparent to the GP. 

Tomorrow again looks to be a 'storms from the west moving to the east, reaching each coast by mid-afternoon' scenario. Hit and miss as they go.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Sketchy time period. Thursday-Friday look to be the driest of days statewide, though some areas in South and Far North could see some activity. Delayed sea breezes will mean warm at the coast (assuming they form).

By Saturday the remnants of a frontal boundary could sink down to south of the I-10 toward Ocala - Ormond Beach zone. The Latest GFS implies that said activity with it by then will result in SE Steering winds (from NW to Southeast)  which could bring activity propagating down the East Coast Sea breeze to Central Florida by early evening with colder air aloft. Thus, Saturday could see storms mainly north of Vero Beach late in the day after a full day of solid heat.

Thus, for now am watching for 'Strong Storms' North - North Central on Saturday . and some variation of the same on Sunday. 

NOTE: Saturday and Sunday look like 'anomalies of summer' for now. Guidance implies NW-NNW winds but warm with Thunder and cold air aloft. A strange combination. But ifa sea breeze forms, it would likely be from the southeast regardless of the overall synoptic scale pattern. Latest forecasts were calling for 'dry' over the weekend but that has been will it be? A few days to clarify. 

No comments:

Sunday, June 16, 2019

Showers/Storms through Tuesday -- Drying Out and Hot Next Weekend

Severe Warned Thunderstorm This Day 2018, Titusville, Florida
TODAY: Deeper atmospheric moisture up through all atmospheric levels is working northward from South Florida as mid-upper level and surface winds all become more southerly with time through Monday (mainly southeast-south southeast today). 

Most cloudy skies persist along to south of I4 today and such will be the case most of the day with some intermittent breaks here and there from time to time. 

With a little day time heating to even just shortly after sunrise most guidance suggests showers could start to 'sprout up' off shore to near the coast mainly from near and south of Port St Lucie toward Fort Pierce to offshore South Brevard County which will then work north slowly and/or along their own outflow boundaries reaching East Central by mid-late morning and lasting up through early afternoon in that general vicinity.

Chances are areas further toward South Central/South Florida after initial activity might see little more the remainder of the day, but remain cloudy / partly cloudy but for further South Florida which might recover (esp. far South Florida) for late afternoon activity over the interior.

With longer daytime heating (toward noon time -2pm time frame) thunderstorms could truly begin especially in areas that will have better heating (less cloudy cover) early on. That area is mainly the North Half of the state as can been seen from the pre-dawn satellite image below. All activity will form in the rather soupy, non-descript air mass with the strongest potentially along the leading edge of the moisture gradient as it ushers northward from South/South Central during the course of mid-morning to early afternoon from South to North. 

Instability is not forecast to be all 'that strong' today, so the strongest of activity will rely upon boundary collisions, better heating, and moisture gradients which appear will 'be at their best' along portions of West Central (near I75) later in the day near to south of Ocala vicinity.

TONIGHT-MONDAY: With a break in the activity, more showers could re-emerge late night/pre-sunrise along the East Coast with possibly another similar scenario to 'rue'-the-day on Monday as PWAT air mass (precipitable water) remains nearly saturated with moderate instability and wind becoming a bit more southerly.  Details to follow on that day.

TUESDAY: Wind overnight Monday to Tuesday becomes more southwesterly at all levels while high PWAT air remains in place. How exactly this day will unfold is 'TBD" but rain chances remain a good bet, though 'early morning' activity along the coast could shift offshore rather than remain on land (if there is any).

WEDNESDAY:  After Tuesday the highest PWAT air is forecast to shift off to the east. Rain chances this day and Thursday appear to go down considerably, though official forecasts are still calling for a respectable chance; appears that 'chance' will have to wait until at least noon-late day and occur mainly along the East Side of the state (at least as far as thunder is concerned) though showers and some storms might move ashore along the west coast, even before sunrise (a bit of a reversal of patterns from today and tomorrow ).

THURSDAY-WEEKEND: Though Thursday could be similar to Wednesday, we'll have to see how things are playing out by then. 

The overall trend is for further drying, less cloud cover, and hence, warmer temperatures. By Friday - Monday the GFS (for example) has been indicating ambient air temperatures as high as the Upper 90Fs (even 100F? in one instance without considering the 'heat index') toward Eastern portions of North Central Florida with a predominant southwesterly flow. 

Sea breezes should temper down afternoon highs these days , but not before many at the coast see at least lower 90Fs with a delayed onset.

Temperature forecasts this far out in time (as is the case most any time) can be very sketchy, but for now suffice it to say that by the end of the week through early next week it will be anything but what we'd expect to experience this time of year for the 'wet season'. 

Hot and dry with little relief west of I95 appears will be the 'rule of the day' until at least Tuesday and or Wednesday.

No comments:

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Strong to 'Near Severe' Activity Again Possible Today - 'Calming Down' into Weekend

"Severe Warned Thunderstorm" Approaching Cape Canaveral - June 12, 2019
TODAY: Final Day of 'Active Duty'' at hand - then a big pattern change toward typical summer weather ensues . 

Frontal boundary near the panhandle already active well before sunrise as showers and thunder storm activity progresses west to east across northern regions of the state.

Cloud cover from activity does not appear to be impacting areas further south (south half of state) as can be seeing from the infrared satellite image loop below which runs through 5:01 AM

Today  appears could be a variation of what occurred yesterday with the 'plus' of the frontal boundary finally making some southward progress along with associated mid-upper level triggers (to boot). 

Temperatures aloft will be like those of yesterday  with 500mb around -8.5C and 700mb around 7.5C  (give or take a degree or two) and moderate strong Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Instability therefore, will not be an issue today, and cloud cover as of now does not appear will act as a limiting factor for storm strength later. The biggest question is how far north will any 'stronger storms' be able to manifest. This post takes a conservative approach.

There were some 'officially severe' storm reports that blew in yesterday, and these are only in areas where winds could be measured officially (to be considered)

Add caption
All Roads Point to 'The Storm"

Greatest instability given the current showers/storm activity in progress should be near to and south of I4  with stronger upper level winds (though not significantly so) from Indian River County - Sarasota line and north which 'combined with sea breezes' really out front puts almost all of "East Central" in Prime Time.

Latest RAP Guidance and NAM soundings infer an east coast sea breeze will develop prior to noon (South Florida) and upward to Brevard County area by noon or shortly thereafter.

Given the colder air aloft, triggers  embedded in the flow as evidenced by early day activity accompanied by the local effects of the sea breeze collision as the west coast sea breeze works east  with slightly stronger wind aloft  - will shoot with the risk of strong to 'locally near severe' (weakly severe) across Eastern Portions of Central and South Florida. 

The biggest 'hazard' will still be mainly from lightning, though strong wind and perhaps hail could occur in very isolated cases. Heavy rainfall could rapidly result in some localized street flooding issues (or otherwise) in regions that have already became saturated from the rains of previous days. Again, would watch for a potential of funnel clouds and who knows, a waterspout somewhere?

Initial 'onset' of activity will  release outflow boundaries as that activity dissipates, and those boundaries merging with other ones combined with the sea breeze collision on the 'east side of the state' could all aid in sudden storm eruptions, especially near the coast. Yesterday's activity across east central was 'aided and abetted' but a large outflow boundary that worked south from North Florida which met up with the east coast sea breeze during to just after peak heating - thus, 'timing' in how things come together is critical in how storms will form and how strong they will be. One thing goes wrong, and the forecast is 'blown away'.

Blogger's 'First Guess at 5AM'

Activity will move off the east coast before sunset in almost all locations (other than some random showers) ..though a renegade storm could still exist over South Florida or even North Florida.  

FRIDAY - WEEKEND: Transition underway on Friday as what remains of the front will be over Central Florida. Steering will be quite weak on Friday and the east coast sea breeze will have no problem making inland progress, as too will the west coast sea breeze. There will eventually be some drying out of the atmosphere as well. 

Will lean toward yesterday's post rather than rewriting it all over again. The gist was, chance of early morning toward noon activity east coast then working inland toward the interior and west side of the state by late day all Saturday and Sunday . 

Also appears the upcoming set up might be good for the chance of waterspouts offshore, especially toward South Florida come the weekend, with very light to non-existent winds through the lower 10,000 feet of the atmosphere but with ample moisture. 

Heading toward mid-week the pattern looks generically, "Summer" -ish almost all regards all locations with the focus of activity over the interior regions.

No comments:

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Risk of Strong to Marginal Severe Storms Eastern Peninsula

Arcus On the Leading edge of the Gust Front - Cape Canaveral, June 11, 2014
TODAY: Final stages of the current weather pattern of the past several days will be set in motion as inferred in a previous post would be the case.

 That being, the former area of low pressure over the Deep South would be lifted out only to be replaced by a secondary digging of its supporting upper level trough  as Jet Stream winds from Canada plunge down the back side of the trough, causing it to 'dig deeper' once again, with the net effect of 500mb heights lowering (and consequently upper level temperatures going down / becoming colder once again).  In other words, though the state was in a bit of a respite yesterday (in-between stages) the reinvigorated trough appears will be back to center stage today and tomorrow for much of the state.

To note: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already 'outlooking' the northern part of the peninsula with a "Marginal Risk" but it appears  that the greater 'Risk' will be along the east coast of Florida south of Ormond Beach (though an isolated strong to severe is not out of the question at all toward the JAX area either).

Guidance is continuously showing moderate to high Convective Available Potential Energy today (CAPE), especially along and south of I-4. Cloud cover might hinder regions further north due to early day activity already in progress  along the Gulf Coast spreading its cloud over across the Northern peninsula. 

Accompanying this greater CAPE will be cooler temperatures aloft, and 'nary the chance a sea breeze will be able to form today?' 

That is the Big Question, especially north of Vero Beach
. Suspect it will be able to form from Canaveral , southward.  

The image above shows the 'early morning' outlook from the SPC (will be interesting to see what their later outlooks reveal. Those will be coming out around 8:30AM and 12:30PM locally) coupled with the blogger's 'other area of interest'.

For "Blogging Purposes" more interested in the region shown below in 'Red" for a 'risk' of Isolated Strong to Marginally 'Severe' . 

Noting that not all will even get rained on today. Key word is 'Isolated'..but nonetheless, in and near any said storm wind gusts of 40 mph + are possible and in them stronger wind and/or small hail up to 'severe' possible (1.00 inch in diameter or more). We might be hearing reports of 'funnel clouds' today as well.

THURSDAY: Thursday might well hold the same sort of "RISK" potential for a similar area, other than the region north of I-4 might be 'in the clear for severe' altogether as a frontal boundary will be working southward to reach Central by late morning Friday where it 'withers and fades'...that is, goes under frontalysis.

FRIDAY:  Pattern change to come into full effect during the course of the day. 

Onshore east coast breezes to come back by mid-morning (or earlier). though winds in the 'storm steering level' remain weakly from west to east. 

The word is that the regime will favor 'all west coast' by late in the day', but am questioning if that will be the case truly, especially across Central Florida.

 Appears more like a better set up for Storms to favor SR 27 to right down the spine of the state with a drift toward the east coast in the early evening.

WEEKEND: Might start to see late night to early - mid morning activity move ashore along the east coast. Sunday could be temporarily 'wet' for many east coast locations for a brief time,even prior to noon or shortly thereafter from on shore moving showers, perhaps even with thunder. In short, don't be surprised if it rains over night Saturday night or Sunday night, or even prior to noon time Sunday-Monday for those along the east half of the state especially right at the coast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Activity to favor the west coast mostly, but rather isolated as moisture might be lacking.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Storms might again favor the east coast.

No comments:

Saturday, June 8, 2019

Storm (Some Strong in Coming Days) / Rain Shower Chances Continue High For Several Days

Hard Down Pours with Lightning Possible (Storm on June 7, 2017, Cape Canaveral)
TODAY: Along the same lines as previous days, with variations. Today and coming
days will be the 'Baskin Robbins' of rain chances. Each day is the same store, but with a different flavor. Some days 1 scoop, other days up to three . Chances of seeing 'cones' though will be quite slim.

Early - mid morning the atmosphere has already started out unstable, and it will become even more unstable up through early afternoon. Temperatures aloft are a bit cooler on the KSC sounding from yesterday, and if the GFS is correct (The NAM disagrees) the area from Brevard County northward is up for cooling a bit more well aloft into mid-afternoon , which would point to better mid-level lapse rates 'suddenly' some time after 1pm.   

To cut to the chase, a sea breeze 'might' be able to form mainly south of the Cape but if so will stay pegged close to the coast east of I95 if not even US1 at most (best).   

The 'going trend' on the NAM model however has a short but interesting history for today. That being, strong Vertical Velocities along the East Coast of North Central/Central Direct some time after 4pm from the surface all the way up to 20,000 ft. 

With such consistencies , it's best be forewarned of what potentials that could mean. Namely, explosive development resulting in large rainfall totals and frequent lightning (perhaps small hail at the cores?). Maybe not, but regardless, today's prospects are being indicated by the NAM and short fused HRRR model to be "Active' in nature. 

Thus, some areas could see in excess of 2.00" of rain today, with many areas seeing 1/2" - 1.00" (then again, some areas will see little to none as well).

"Bloggers Special" for today with RED ZONE indicating Potential for 'Bigger, Badder Storms"
The Storm Prediction Center's Outlook with Bloggers Addition
(I feel parts of North Florida might be too cloud covered all day to produce 'Marginal Severe" Storms)
Mid-Morning Radar (See note below)
Note: Noting the radar trends and satellite overlay above we can see activity is trending/moving eastward with a slight  leaning north as well. All in all, suspect some of the higher clouds over Central might dissipate as they aren't all 'too extensive even now'. Otherwise, given that the atmosphere is already nearly primed with a Convective Temperature on the KSC sounding of only 87F, we should get an early initiation under way within a few hours. 

With help from the West Coast Sea-breeze and future outflows from showers at large, we might see a good piling up of storms toward East Central late afternoon to dwindle well into the mid-evening hours.  

General time of first impacts for East Coast locations (namely from Brevard Southward could be as soon as 2-3 pm (already in  progress further north) with only widely scattered activity, but as boundaries begin to interact and the West Coast sea-breeze approaches, there might be a rather rapid shift in the overall character of the skies and weather from showers with some lightning to full blown storms in the 4:30-6 time frame.

SUNDAY: No official outlets are calling it, but there appears to be a better risk of 'strong' to 'marginally severe thunderstorms' across most of Central and North Central Florida tomorrow. 
Sunday continues to look like a very active day, but will re-evaluate after tonight.

NEXT WEEK: The upper level low over the Deep South will begin to open up and lift northward Sunday night as another upper trough passes further north across the Great Lakes accompanied by an unusual cold front which will work all the way to the Panhandle of Florida. The two join together as one large trough. Looks impressive for very cool to cold mornings come early next week across nearly the entire nation, save for Florida with the accompanying cold front with these combined systems (!)  

However, on the back side of the what will become an open trough (instead of closed low) comes another Speed Max from the Jet Stream down the trough's backside. This will cause it to 'Dig' further south and essentially result in a similar wind field pattern over Florida for Tuesday- Thursday, maybe even into Friday. 

It's hard to say for certain then what day we specifically have a sensible change (to the outsider) of a Real Pattern Change. Yes, the Pattern is going to change,but for all purposes weather wise it will be relatively unreasonable other than on paper. Although, suspect by mid-week the weather will take on more of a 'summer' feel too it, including more storms and rains. That meaning, less cloud cover earlier in the day. Time will tell.

Sum Total, we might see rainfall totals over 7 inches in some areas when considering All the days already we've had rains, plus those coming up. My location has already had over 2" and we're barely into the Real "Meat and Potatoes' of this synoptic situation that has been heralded to approach, which really will not be until Sunday. It was dry for a while so the soils can handle it, but in a few days we might be talking 'localized flooding issues' in the most prone areas.

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Friday, June 7, 2019

Conditional Chance There Will Be Storms Today - Strong Storms Possible Early Next Week

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral - June 6, 2019
 YESTERDAY: Things panned out pretty much as thought 'could have occurred' at least
in a few locations. It just so happened to 'occur' at the bloggers location (conveniently).

Rainfall totals around Central Florida varied from Zero to over an inch -even up to 2.00' and more,with the overall largest totals across the Panhandle region.

TODAY: As blog post title infers, the chance for another bout of potential thunderstorms anywhere today is conditional upon a mitigating factor, namely CLOUD COVER. 

A simple glance outside shows that clouds are present over a vast majority of the state, including Central Florida, as does latest visible satellite imagery (below). In monitoring satellite animation trends (and infrared while it was still dark out), it appears that they might be thinning out a bit over some regions, but whether or not the trend will continue or if with a little heating we'll just cloud right back up again is yet to be known. 

This is often an issue when the atmosphere becomes so moisture laden. Forecast guidance can scream 'rain rain rain' but in the end, what we get is 'clouds clouds clouds' instead apart  from other factors other than day time heating and lake/sea breeze boundary interactions to work with, such as vorticity lobes (upper level energy) passing over head and steep mid-level lapse rates.

Temperatures aloft aren't all that cold today but still definitely cold enough with 500mb coming around -6.5C and 700mb around 7.5C   amounting to mildly unstable  with weak lapse rates  , that's three strikes against 'storms' today.

 Model guidance seems to have picked up on the trend too, for example, the short range High Resolution model earlier was calling for storms across much of the east half of the state, but as of 10 AM that risk has all but vanished, for it now shows but mere patches of rain-showers at best other than across the Panhandle.

If per chance we start to get better cloud breaks, that very same model could change it's tune. Point is, IF we can get sufficient clearing across rather a large area, storms would be back once again, and from the looks of it, mostly 'somewhere' for East Central and North Central Florida moving toward the east coast.

WEEKEND: Little change to forecast otherwise. The complex mid-upper level low pressure area which covers several states will shift north and east toward Alabama/Georgia , even North Florida heading toward Monday. Steering from WSW to ENE will increase with plentiful moisture and that combined with lowering upper level temperatures should contribute too to better lapse rates adding for better lifting motion.   The better chance for STRONG storms appears to be Sunday. Like today, Saturday will again be conditional -- though at this point will go with persistence and play the 'good chance of storms' card once again. If not, then more cloud cover. All in all meaning, not such a great weekend for the beach either way you look at it.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Again, with colder air aloft in the forecast (per the GFS model) as well as ample moisture, apart from cloud cover risks, expect we could see strong storms  up through TUESDAY of next week from Sunday onward,  perhaps even WEDNESDAY. Rainfall totals across all days in some locations, especially across the Panhandle and areas north of I4 could  exceed 4" before all is said and done. Some areas have already received more than 3" in the panhandle.

WHEN DOES THE PATTERN CHANGE? So far, it appears Thursday night going into Friday.
Surface winds and winds aloft become easterly and rain chances significantly decrease for the east coast, though South Central/South Florida might have on one more day (at least that has been the going trend the past few model runs). Whether there might be overnight / early morning shower activity in that location is too soon to say.

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Thursday, June 6, 2019

Wet Pattern Emerging Today - Strong Storms Possible Saturday-Monday (?)

On This Date, 2018, large Rainfall totals occurred in parts of Brevard County, Including Cape Canaveral

Localized street flooding

TODAY: Not necessarily expecting a day like 'last year on this date', but rain chances for many areas Central to East Coast will be on the 'up tick' today, and more so in days ahead.

Not much change from previous post, as a mid-upper level low pressure area (a complex one) along with the surface features is only but now gathering its 'wits and steam' over parts of North Central Oklahoma southward toward the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin region, including parts of Southern Alabama and Mississippi.

 In coming days the area of low pressure will shift east and further south, fully displacing any prospects of a dominant Western Atlantic High Pressure ridge over the state, with an  increasing cyclonic flow/circulation over the state come the weekend as Florida comes fully into the localized affects of this aforementioned complex system.

With increasing southerly flow today through multiple lower levels of the atmosphere into the mid-levels and increasing moisture as well , coupled with a stacked south to southwest flow surface and above, the east coast sea breeze will not make nearly as much inland progression today north of around Vero Beach. 

It is possible that activity could even go up sometime after 2 pm very close to the coast in preferred locations (namely, near Lake Okeechobee and North Merritt Island) but the bigger event for today will be when the west coast sea breeze makes it's meeting with the east coast sea breeze later in the day.

Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, nor are winds strong and with less likelihood of any 'dry layers' aloft, the risk of 'severe category wind gusts' decreases. The bigger story I suspect between today well into next weekend will be 'sum total rainfall totals', possibly exceeding 5 Inches 'somewhere' in the state, possibly near the Nature Coast (the Big Bend area), but other areas could get larger totals on days like today when storm forward motion will be slow and erratic.

FRIDAY: So far, not much change from today is forecast. Granted, chances are each and every day from here on out will have it's own 'flavor' and/or 'type'  and how storms/showers evolve one day might well be dependent  upon boundaries laid out from previous day's activity as well. 

There is a bit more of a shift though come the weekend.

WEEKEND-MONDAY: The upper level features are advertised to make their closest pass to the Peninsula.

The GFS is consistent in lowering upper level temperatures and increasing mid-level winds. 

This could result in deeper convection, higher rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and stronger wind gusts; on the other hand, it can also mean but early initiation and quick motion off the east coast and residual cloud cover the remainder of the day. 

How things will evolve ultimately is up to how the 'cards fall' at this point. 
All in all, many will see much needed rainfall.

More to come in detail concerning the weekend time frame through Monday in future posts. Could be interesting.

NEXT WEEK: Continued variations to what by then will be 'the same old theme, different day'.

The mid-upper level features are forecast to abandon the Southeast states and lift north and east after Monday and/or Tuesday, but Southwest Flow aloft continues until at least Thursday. After that point, the Atlantic Ridge axis attempts to re-assert it's position across either South Central or Central Florida.  

It won't be all 'wet ' though. The GFS is showing that there is a chance at least parts of the state might  be 'dry slotted' perhaps on Sunday or Monday, so time will tell. If we are 'dry slotted' that means there would be specific areas that nearly to most definitely would not see rain that day.

The next issue, however, is whether a tropical entity (if nothing more than organized moisture) will have manifested near the Yucatan awaiting on the wings to be advected northward toward the Panhandle and in part, the peninsula as well come later next week.

This is too far out in time to be of concern at this point. 

Yesterday, the GFS had abandoned the notion that a potentially 'Named System' could impact the Western Panhandle, but then it brought it back again in a later run. 

 What will be seeing come 8 days from now (as one ought expect would be the case) is where else? Up in the air.

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Wednesday, June 5, 2019

"Wet Season Suddenly on Tap" Thursday into Much of Next Week?

Testing a Wide Angle Lens   June 9, 2016  on a Storm to the West of Cape Canaveral
TODAY: Getting  an 'early start' on some showers going up along the East Coast Sea Breeze as of around 10:20AM along the west banks of the intercoastals. This activity will only slowly progress westward if at all. Once the Sea Breeze kicks in most of it might dissipate, only to re-emerge later in the day further inland.

Meanwhile, the west coast sea breeze will generate and work away from that coast.
The Short-Range and mid-range guidance suppose they will confront each other very close to the SR27 Corridor or very close to just west of the North/South Spine of the state between 5-6pm.

Meanwhile , steering winds aloft, though a bit 'east to west' early on over the Southern 1/3rd of the state, will progressively become more 'West to East' after dark and into all day Thursday and beyond that point well into next week. They are all but already nearly 'west to east' near to north of I4 even now.

But for today, the post considers the sea breeze collision well into the interior with a slight favoring toward the east coast along to north of I-4 as a result of the winds noted in the preceding paragraph. 

In fact, some activity might be able to work off the east coast across Volusia/Flagler Counties near or after dark up through 9-10PM, if as nothing more than
light-moderate rain showers. Will far North Brevard too get into the picture for rains later tonight too?  Time will tell, but the change is on .

THURSDAY: Pattern swing erupting faster than foreseen from but only two days ago. 

What was thought to be an overall 'west to east' pattern in storm motion on Sunday is beginning to now show signs of arriving as soon as Friday. 

Though steering will not be all that strong, it is nonetheless to be present. Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, so looking at this point for run-of the mill type activity heading into the weekend.

The cause of the change of pattern is a mid-level trough forming over North Texas which will be moving east across the lower latitudes the next several days. As it progresses east the high pressure ridge centered over Florida - off the east coast will slacken and drop south, to eventually being out of the picture altogether; this then would be placing the state in Cyclonic Flow near that mid-level low pressure region-and around to near the base of the approaching associated trough  .

Increasingly the winds aloft and eventually at the surface are forecast to become  southwest to west-southwest with time. So much so,that the east coast sea breeze might be prevented from forming completely come early next week. 

Additionally with the approach of this trough, moisture pooled ahead of it,and some drawn northward will overspread the state. 

Forecast precipitable water values are varying from 1.7" to 2.2' inches on nearly a daily basis from Thursday up through Thursday of next week, at least.

FRIDAY -THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS Guidance implies the state will be in an increasing cyclonic flow around low pressure centered over Georgia and into the Carolinas with increasing moisture in the mid-upper levels. 

That means 'westerly' type winds with an increasing chance that we will not be seeing an east coast sea breeze some of the days coming up. 

With increased moisture as well, this all could mean 'early onset' days. 

That means, showers/thunderstorms could come into the picture as early as before noon, even mid or early morning along the West Coast and work toward the East Coast by early afternoon. 

All this is speculation at this point,but it sure looks like that might be the case from here.

With increased moisture, we will see increased cloud cover, so that despite the absence (potentially) of an east coast sea breeze, cloud cover and/or earlier onset of showers and storms would preclude us from experiencing very warm temperatures. 

Actually, from today on out temperatures appear will run the 'normal gamut' by and large well into next week; (that is to say, other than the chance of near record breaking 'record warm minimums overnight' especially along some of the east coast reporting stations). 

Once we get more into a 'westerly flow from the bottom up' going into the weekend that risk will go away though as well.

SUMMARY: Increasing rain chances most locations begins especially around Sunday. There appears that somewhere between SUNDAY-TUESDAY we could see STRONG STORMS as well, but that is too far out in time to dig into details for why that would be using the variables required to make that assertion that are too 'fine' to know of with any certainty at this point. Rainfall TOTALS across all days from Today through the end of next week
could amount to SEVERAL INCHES in a few locations,especially over preferred Polk, Osceola, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, and Lake Counties.

All in all, with the prospects of higher PWAT (precipitable water) atmospherically for such a prolonged length of time right into mid-June, we might be able to consider that going from today into the weekend we are welcoming the Wet Season afterall (?)

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