"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Will Remnant TD5 Make a THIRD Visit to the Northern Gulf?!

RECAP OF YESTERDAY: Sea breeze generated rain showers and a few light thunderstorms (thundershowers?) were able to pop yesterday from around noon time through 2-3pm between US-1 and I-95 from North Brevard and points south. This activity was fairly isolated in nature and came to an abrupt end by 3:30pm as the east coast sea breeze worked further west toward the greater inland portion of the state. A diffuse, early evening west meets east collision occurred west of Orlando as anticipated with Lake County seemingly receiving the brunt of the rainfall when all is said and done. Moisture and a slightly veering wind profile at the mid-levels returned as anticipated in the post yesterday, but it was a dime late and a dollar short for areas on the east side of the peninsula to receive late afternoon activity, which was also expected, although there was less activity overall than was thought to occur. Today looks different though, and thus another morning of blogging is now at hand.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK: See the end of this post.
SYNOPSIS: Not much of interest across the SE U.S. Remnant TD5  circulation center appears to be over NE portions of Louisiana at time and barely moving if at all. Surface and mid-level ridge axis of high pressure located over the southern third of the state of Florida. As such, a land breeze has developed along the Florida East Coast right at around sunrise. Mid-level flow at time seems to have backed at bit toward being from more of straight from the SSE-S rather than the SSW, but believe this is only temporary. Mid-level temperatures remain atypically warmer than what one should expect to exist for such a long period of time during the course of the summer, thus, thunderstorm coverage and intensity will again be downplayed.
TODAY: Virtually every model generated late last night through very early this morning is painting the same general picture.  The 850-700mb winds again appear as though the will veer toward the S-SW during the mid-late afternoon hours, with the GFS being the odd ball out and actually taking them the whole way around to being from the west.  I haven't seen the KSC sounding because unfortunately it's not available on the internet at this time, but other discussions, later water vapor loop, and early evening data indicate that atmospheric moisture in the mid-upper levels is in no way of short supply.
(EARLY TODAY):The east coast sea breeze will develop at what is now apparent to be a typical time frame, from 11:30am - 1pm. It will form earliest from near Vero and points south as well as right along the A1A corridor from near Patrick Air Force Base to the Cape.  With steering currents as they currently stand we could get some decent cloud lines of convective nature to form parallel to and over or along the intracoastal waterways between 11:30am -1pm which could grow into showers or even a low end thunderstorm (thundershower?) as the clouds lines organize into convective clusters. The greatest likely region as of this time that this seems will occur will be the same areas as yesterday. However, with the mid-level winds already in place (and less from an easterly component), they could form a little closer to the coast today than they did yesterday, which was mostly along I-95 or barely east of there in some locales. Some of this activity could actually penetrate the A1A corridor anywhere in Brevard (and perhaps Indian River County)...and all points north. Further south, where the sea breeze will have been established earlier in the day, storms should have a hard time making it east of I-95 except for maybe around West Palm Beach where a Lake/Sea breeze interaction could induce a storm or to very close to I-95 or even near US-1. One other scenario to watch for today is for storms to go up before noon further south along the earlier forming sea breeze front with subsequent firing of additional activity northward up I-95 to US-1 as we work into the early-mid afternoon time frame. Either way, the same areas will be affected by this pre-mid afternoon thunderstorm activity inherent to Florida summer weather.
(LATER TODAY): The sea breeze will have become established fully by 3:00pm and have begun its westward trek, however, it doesn't appear that it will make it much further west than the North Shores of Lake Okeechobee northward to thru Orlando and into Central portions of Seminole/Volusia Counties. The west coast sea breeze will also be making inland progression during this time frame. It again appears that a  diffuse  (less deliberate) collision of these two boundaries will not occur until around (or after) 6pm along or just maybe east of this aforementioned North/South line. The most likely area that it could actually occur more toward the east would be from a Kennedy Space Center toward Seminole County line. Storms/or perhaps storms debris could reach the immediate coast south of this line from near Indian Harbor Beach and points north, but of little to no consequence. The most likely region along the east coast to see a second round of storms as we work into the early-mid evening hours will be over the Kennedy Space Center, North Merritt Island, Titusville, Mims, Port St. John, Oak Hill ...and points north along US1 and AIA toward Daytona Beach Shores. Meanwhile, further inland much of Orange, Seminole, Volusia, well as further south over Central and Western Osceola and Okeechobee Counties will be prospects for storms. Most of the storms will be very slow moving...with apparent motion actually being induced by boundary interactions and propagation ...but in general storms will drift toward the North.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: At time, it appears the low and mid level ridge axis currently near Lake Okeechobee will drift north to Central Florida. This would place inland portions to continue to be the favored area for late afternoon sea breeze collisions with some activity going up along or over the intracoastal water ways round noon time (give or take an hour either way)...but primarily avoiding the coast. The outlier area being the Space Center toward Mims and Titusville where the more eastward extension of land area gives them an added benefit of being 'further inland' than the region from Port Canaveral and south. Who knows, there could actually be a set up for a funnel cloud near the Space Center in this time frame.
SATURDAY-THIS TIME NEXT WEEK: By Saturday, the mid-surface level ridge axis will sink back south in response to a continental frontal boundary approaching  the Mississippi River Valley. It's hard to believe, but at this time remnant TD5 might still be barely hanging on at the mid-levels in this same region. In fact, and as strictly joked about the other day, it could once again end up being either displaced or redevelop further south along the Northern Gulf Coast somewhere just off the coast anywhere from Apalachicola toward Mobile. Although tropical development of this system is highly unlikely, this scenario could paint a continued wet pattern over already soaked areas from 2 previous visits from this same system. Just something to watch. Meanwhile, by this time next week we could be watching 1 or maybe even 2 tropical systems well off to the east in the Atlantic. In fact, by this time next week we could have our next named system...with another one about to be named on its heels.
Locally: The surface front approaching the Deep South, in conjunction with some mid-upper level troughiness, will be accompanied by lower thickness values in the 1000-500mb layer. This translates essentially to cooler temperatures aloft. As such, the period from Sunday or Monday through Wednesday could be characterized by stronger thunderstorms, greater coverage, and favoring the east side of the state. This will bear monitoring, since that would mean we might actually see some REAL THUNDERSTORMS  along the A1A corridor for the first time since official summer began this year.

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