"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, November 25, 2013

Possible Severe Storms Early Wednesday - Coldest Yet Thanksgiving Morning

A WARM FRONT from the surface to 2000 foot Above Ground Level (AGL) will lift north in advance of a developing surface low and deep upper level trough approaching from the west/Northern Gulf tonight.
Most likely showers across Eastern South Florida will manifest and work northward mainly east of I-95 overnight and up the east coast
TODAY: Continued breezy, especially at the beaches as winds become more easterly during the latter portions of the day. Mostly cloudy but could see more cloud breaks than yesterday, though surface heating from any breaks (if any) could result in regeneration of cloud cover once again.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY:  (Image above). A low pressure system will be developing toward I-10 of Louisiana at the coast and will move east and north over the next 48-72 hours. High pressure will move further east of Florida and the eastern U.S. as the deep upper full latitudinal upper level trough shifts east from the South Central Plains region. 

Surface wind over Florida will become more easterly late today and then SE-SSE late tonight as a warm front from the surface to 2000 ft and eventually 5000 feet lifts north. The result of convergence along the coast with the veering surface winds and colder air mixing out could result in measurable rainfall mainly along and east of I-95 over night tonight from south to north reaching the Central zones well after midnight  which 'could' last off and on until the warmer air associated with the mid-level warm front fully reaches Central toward late morning; clearing of the rain from south to north.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Could become partly cloudy at times but continued breezy this day with wind now from the SE-SSE and slowly becoming more southerly with time. Warmer though, even if it becomes mostly cloudy. Could see a prolonged rain free period though some showers near the coast are still possible after mid afternoon especially with any destabilization of the atmosphere. Upper trough will be approaching, but in this entire weather situation to unfold the lower levels of the atmosphere will not be phasing with the upper level trough quite in sync enough to warrant a full blown severe weather event outcry for Florida as it stands now (per se). Thus, Tuesday might be a nicer day as it will be warmer from noon onward but with a continued chance of some showers and cloud coverage. 

OVERNIGHT TUESDAY - EARLY WEDNESDAY: This is the period to be on some level of weather awareness which unfortunately will be while people are asleep (most likely) from around 1AM through 8AM, beginning toward the West side of the state but potentially rapidly filling in across the remainder of the peninsula as the Upper Level Jet stream associated with the leading edge of the upper trough approaches, resulting in strong upper level divergence and increasing bulk shear through the mid levels. By this time Florida will have been under sufficient southerly flow for some minimal destabilization  with the best 'intersect of instability and wind support' to occur over East Central Florida toward I-4 south toward NE Lake Okeechobee after 4AM. 

See below image showing the 'forecast based on the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) Model of 700mb winds', or around those winds at 10,000 feet at 1AM which will be moving in on the peninsula from the west. Jet stream level winds are much stronger and will be increasing the divergence aspect abetting lift up through the mid-levels heading toward 3AM based on this model (only).

10,000 foot level winds could be transported toward ground level in the event that tall rain showers or thunderstorms can develop, resulting in severe category surface winds in downpours , should they develop, or even a brief tornado might manifest.
Any wind event will be quite brief, but potent.

WEDNESDAY: Active weather scenario will be clearing the state by early-late morning from north to south and should have ended by noon time most areas but really well before that time for the most part. Clearing skies throughout the day but with breezy western-ly winds and temperatures in the 70Fs.

THURSDAY IS THANKSGIVING DAY 2013!  - Starting out mostly clear. Coldest day (if such a word could be used at this point in the season)..of the 2013-2014 cold season (aka - "winter"). Lows at the immediate beaches close to 50F-53F but rapidly falling toward the mid 40Fs west of the intercoastals and well inland if not upper 30Fs into North Central Florida for example in areas around Ocala and Lake County. NNW wind 10-15 mph with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs.

PSALM 110:2, " A Psalm for Thanksgiving. Shout joyfully to The LORD, all the earth. 2 Serve the LORD with gladness; Come before Him with joyful singing.
3 Know that THE LORD HIM - SELF IS GOD!; It is He who has made us, and not we ourselves; We are His people and the sheep of His pasture.
FRIDAY: End of the cold spell. Winds becoming N-NNE-NE overnight such that Friday morning at the beaches could dawn with a morning 'low' much warmer than the temperature experienced when going to bed Thanksgiving Night. Wind fetch this bout of onshore winds will have a trajectory across more water this go around, so cloud cover again should begin to manifest with possible coastal sprinkles becoming more evident later in the day into the night and into Saturday.

WEEKEND: It is possible that measurable rainfall over for example a 6-12 hours period will occur, if not in less time. Onshore winds breezy but not outrageous, but cloud cover and possible rain for the entire remainder of the Thanksgiving Weekend does appear   not to be out of the question for those along the coast east of I-95,  noting that rainfall totals, if so, are shown by the GFS forecast model guidance to be less than 1/2" over a 3 day period.  

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