|'Morning Surveillance' - Great Blue Herons , Cocoa Beach, FL|
TODAY: Increased moistening in the atmospheric profile coupled with instability and late afternoon sea breeze convergence could result in showers and some thunder (possibly an isolated stronger storm) mainly south of I-4 and west of line from Orlando south ).
The general trend is for activity to start mainly across South Florida and work north and become a bit strong toward Eastern parts Polk county late in the day
Otherwise, highs in mid-upper 80Fs well inland with nearer to 90F parts of West Central and interior SW Florida --more toward the lower 80Fs near the east coast beaches where a solid east to southeast wind will prevail. More humid today all areas though, regardless.
MONDAY: Overall surface wind and winds aloft overnight tonight into mid-day Monday veer more toward the SSE at the surface and from the southwest (aloft) as a complex , large and severe weather producing system (which will produce 'severe' in parts of the Deep South of Louisiana, Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas and Western Mississippi today) shifts eastward today and tonight. Stronger storms could enter into the Western Florida panhandle this day. Otherwise --
Moisture and instability in place, and slightly veering wind profiles in place might be enough to introduce the remote potential for some stronger storms as noted in graphic below. Guidance at this time is split on the amount of coverage (if nearly any). Will run with sea breeze convergence coupled with instability and veering wind profiles aloft (though not especially strong) providing for the needed boast to watch for tomorrow with more details coming in all day today into earlier tomorrow anyway. For now, graphic below is a heads up for tomorrow for 'strong storms possible' as shown.
Any rainfall will be welcomed as much of the state is in a 'moderate drought' with a pocket of even worse conditions ("severe drought') across parts of West Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee.
TUESDAY: This day will again be warm with wide spread upper 80Fs and some lower 90Fs. So far guidance implies overall moisture for storm generation will be less available and as a result expecting a chance of a shower or maybe thunder north of I-4 with South Florida remaining dry. Afternoon sea breezes will prevent these warmer temperatures from being realized unless it holds off until after 2pm.
WEDNESDAY: Strong storms possible Panhandle region again and warming again into upper 80Fs and lower 90Fs. Better chances of showers Central appears to be after dark toward sunrise Thursday morning as a front goes through but storms not expected at this point.
Later Thursday into the weekend: Much cooler than what we've been seeing now for a while. Lows in 50Fs many areas to possibly some upper 40Fs northern interior. Highs only in the mid-upper 70Fs. Breezy northwest wind to accompany the cooler air as well especially Friday into Saturday morning.
Dry weather prevails for quite sometime again,
after any rainfall potentials which may be in place Wednesday into early Thursday.