"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, June 22, 2012

Possibility of Torrential Downpours Going into Sunday

Some showers possible near the coast today, mainly south of DAB and brief.
Better chances well west of I-95 , with best coverage between 3-7pm. Thunder possible

TODAY: Not a whole lot different than yesterday for the most part, as large area of low pressure continues in the far Southern Gulf extending toward the Central Gulf as can be seen by clouds in the image above in the Gulf. The disturbed area extends well to the south in toward the Yucatan and waters to its east in the Western Caribbean. This is noted in the water vapor image further down.  Meanwhile, other than some showers and some thunder, little other to occur over Florida today

SATURDAY: The large area of low pressure is expected to at least lift north and gather together a bit better. So far so good, but that is also about as far as guidance gets in agreement.  The GFS had strayed off from previous mathematical solution for one run, then got back right on track with previous runs. The  EURO favors 'something' heading toward Texas, although not sure it is not picking up on an upper level low forecast to move right into that area in the next 48 hours as can be seen of water vapor loops (barely). It is still up for grabs though. Not shown here since if that is the case it means way more time in the distant future and no concern for Florida. 

In any case, chance of showers east central early on, but most rain appears will be South Florida and near the east coast as far north as DAB. As noted , by this time tomorrow guidance starts to already diverge, so much of what the weather does by tomorrow morning will already be contingent upon what occurs in the Gulf, we might have to expect the unexpected (for better or for worse)  until tomorrow when details can be ironed out assuming they even can be)... As seen below:

WATER VAPOR LOOP LATEST (Explanation below, see annotations)
This image is the latest prior to the post of water vapor in the atmosphere primarily in the upper portions and into the mid levels of the atmosphere. We see some features as noted:
1. High pressure to the west. This has been forecast to continue to build in toward the east and flatten southward with time over the weekend
2. What is not shown is weak low circulation in SW Texas. That is also forecast to shift east then drop south toward the location of the orange question mark. This is important for future forecast if it holds true to form because;
3. East of Florida is an upper level low with a ridge to its west off the Florida Coast. Both are forecast to shift east beginning tonight. In doing so, the large area of low pressure easily visible but WEST of the deep convection of storms near the bottom center of the image will lift north under a dome of high pressure aloft, and to its east.
4. Meanwhile, in yellow, a mid level trough could form on the Lee side of the Appalachians accompanied by upper level support. This is expected to build south into the NE Gulf and merge with the now possible depression or storm by late Saturday or Early Sunday, if not sooner. Point is that at this point it makes no difference if a tropical entity is tagged, although they are watching it at the Hurricane Center.

Honesty though, the entire scenario spelled out by the GFS looks suspect. If a good named storm forms, all bets are off and the rules do not apply.

 More clearly, this is the forecast for tomorrow morning, showing UPPER LEVEL high pressure, the low east of Florida moving away. High Pressure near Cuba and low in west Gulf should lift low level surface features northward into the Eastern Gulf. From there, we see the purple arrows and question marks. The low will be in as labelled "No Man's Land" with little steering, and it is at this point the models AGAIN diverge. GFS has been quite consistent on heavy rains mainly from Central to the GA border area, mostly   somewhere between I-4 toward I-10,however, the area of Dead Central is another matter altogether as included further down. Again, based on the GFS (which quite possible is wrong in a number of areas up until this point already).

LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY: GFS has also been consistent with wind fields over Central and South Florida to become favorable for tornadic like activity (IF) the low performs as GFS indicates regardless of weather it is designated a tropical system or not. Actually, if it is, those chances decrease. The entire configuration is quite flaky until heading into over night Saturday time frame, and even then it is the temperatures aloft that seem to be the main driver for designation. Wind fields are way broad , with some of the strongest depth of winds across the peninsula partly due to pressure gradient from high pressure building from the east in the SW Atlantic. Chances are though, it would be named regardless. Point is, even if it is not named conditions could get quite windy over the Peninsula on Sunday and Monday, but most of the rain remains to the north. Those reason alone make it look more sub-tropical than tropical, quickly becoming extra-tropical. as the system is absorbed by a trough digging south as is also shown above.

The NOGAPS model might get the last laugh though, it says, "No can do"..leaving the low in the Gulf to drift off to the SSW-SW-WSW while two other lows form well off the Florida East coast . That would spell major 'Forecast BUST" for all parties concerned, and not much in the way of weather to write your congressman about. For now, 'worst case' scenario is the GFS, and so far it does not look all 'that' bad except for some big rainfall totals, and those wind fields across Central and South as noted above.

If ALL models are wrong, we could have a storm or hurricane sitting in the Gulf not going anywhere for a couple of days. 

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