"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Chance of Strong/Isolated Severe Storm Today - Warm and Muggy

As was the case two days ago, some high clouds Central might be an Issue Once Again
for the amount of rain/storm coverage as well as storm strength. On the other hand....
TODAY: A warm front at the surface is lifting north from the previous day's cool frontal passage which issued in northerly winds. In turn, winds will become again more SE-SSE  today from south to north. Some higher dew point air could be moving in toward Central from the Bahamas as bid mid-level moisture may decreases creating a slight mid-level dry slot. Exactly how deep that dry air is will be one parameter which could determine if the stronger storms (if any) have the uplift to punch through to higher heights and meet the bulk speed and directional shear aloft as noted on the latest SPC Mesoanalysis tool. The east coast sea breeze has yet to set up, but should do so fairly shortly as of noon time.

So far, the better chance of storms will be just inland of Stuart and north toward Volusia county well in from the coast (to start with). Where the east coast sea breeze with a depth of 2-3000 ft stacks up against prevailing SW-West winds aloft across Central to North Central and parts of Central South seems to be the most likely areas to be watching for storms in areas such as Eastern and Central Osceola County to the Brevard County line south toward Vero Beach and Ft. Pierce/northern Okeechobee County and north to Central Volusia County and inland to Eastern Lake and Orange Counties.  

Temperatures aloft are cold enough for small hail and wind gusts toward 58mph should any strong storms develop to severe levels although there is no real pointers indicating that will be the case as of this time. But, things could change for the more likely case or less likely case as the early afternoon wears on. Thus, this is only a pre-fab heads up.  But, interplays along the late afternoon retreating sea breeze boundary combined with any possible earlier activity could result in some short lived briefly severe popcorn; and should "said storm" penetrate the seabreeze toward the east coast  from Brevard to Jax mostly, it could get interesting.  

This as usual is worst case scenario, remembering that just two days ago the same held true, but as it ends up this day might prove to be a bigger challenge for official offices and TV networks since there is not big glob of storms in the Gulf sending a shield of high clouds this way, especially over South Florida and South Central; but with all that has said, IF the worst case can occur, be alert toward US1 after 5pm if any strong storms can press east to the river ways up and down the east coast. To be fair, the NAM model is showing nearly nothing except over the west half of the state due to that the east coast sea breeze in that depiction is expected to get across the state before storms initiate. In that regard, the forecast is a gamble.

Parts of Northern (South Florida) could get into the game as well near the Big Lake. It rained over 4" in a few select locations in the Miami area yesterday, but not from a severe storm.

MONDAY: Again, a chance of thunderstorms although much that occurs tomorrow might be contingent upon what if anything happens today. Any activity appears will be west of I95. Muggy and Warm.

BEYOND: As noted the other day, we will be in an eventual drying trend until late week with some storms possible closer to the west coast from Sarasota and north. Warm with inland highs in the mid-upper 80Fs and closer to the lower 80Fs to upper 70Fs east of I-95 due to onshore flow off cool (but warming) ocean waters.

NEXT SATURDAY Time frame in general looks like it could be another rain maker or cloudy day threat,

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