TODAY: Although not 'exactly' as depicted per models and far from exact for South Florida this morning, increased moisture is making its opening act today to the state. To clarify, South Florida had numerous thunderstorms over land and much more so off shore as can be seen above by the transition of that cluster northward in the past 6 hours. The activity really was not anticipated to such extent based on the forecast discussions I read just two hours before it commenced. Big model 'fail'. Storms for the Brevard Barriers might be done for the day already, as steering is toward the NNW and away from the beaches. Short term model indicates more activity to make head way on to the beaches later today, but just in case there is a "Plan B", it would be titled "Watch Out Far East Central after 1pm". And if so, funnel clouds or even a waterspout is possible. "A word of the wises, be prepared for surprises" (just in case).
BEYOND: Similar timing difficulties will run the gamut for the east coast south of Daytona through Sunday in the hours from sunrise prior to late morning before activity steers toward the interior and eventually west side of the state. Timing close to impossible to forecast due to lack of data forecast points where land observations are close to non-existent for model purposes to the east, with guidance seemingly consisting of largely 'rough guess-timates' as opposed to actuals'.
TRANSITION DAY SOMETIME MONDAY: So far, consistency is pointing toward an over-haul in the wind fields which will gently glide activity toward the NE early next week as opposed to the WNW-W as will be the case by this weekend. Thus, from Monday or Tuesday on the same sort of scenario could evolve except activity and timing is reverted from west to east rather than from east to west as will be case the remainder of the week. Overall, East Coasters should be on the watch for rain early morning through noon time every day.
|ON this DAY last year (Cape Canaveral, FL)|