"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Could It Be...A "Slight" Chance of Rain?

(tiger lilies by the pool)
The long advertised first front of the season is currently located between Daytona Beach on the east coast to just south of Cedar Key on the west side. All atmospheric parameters as far as instability and moisture differences sharply advertise the boundary which is slowly sinking south.

Interestingly, the NAM model has been indicating precipitation with the front along the east central coast by late this afternoon for 2 days now, and now the short range RUC model is doing so as well for the past few runs. It does not appear that the front will "blast" through by any means. In fact, it appears it will make it to a North Brevard - Tampa region by late afternoon and just sort of loiter around a bit before continuing its southward progression after sunset. So what does this mean for us?

Latest sounding data is of little use as the air mass is undergoing some gentle modification throughout the day and will be continuously changing. So based on satellite imagery, surface analysis, and model trends it appears that some form of rain should be included in this 'personal' afternoon forecast package especially from Orlando and points east to the coast and south to the shores of Okeechobee and Ft. Pierce. I was originally thinking that the forecasted precipitation would reveal itself as only enhanced mid-level clouds, but will now kick it up a notch to traceable amounts of rain...maybe measurable. However, it is with great hesitation. The front and its associated moisture may linger just long enough in these areas for moisture to amass and generate some of this rain.

Shortly after dark..or by 9pm it should be over for the central locales though..with the potential lingering until after midnight further south.

As for temperatures, interestingly the Melbourne area got into the upper 60s early this morning, while the coast near Canaveral was still in the mid-upper 70s. With the front going through a tad slower than earlier thought, don't think Wednesday morning temperatures will be all so outstandingly cool; that will wait until Thursday, and even still won't be too great. The biggest change for the late morning riser will be that afternoons will be a solid 5 degrees cooler and much drier through Thursday and into midday Friday.
The next front in the series will be taking shape over the Plains tomorrow and Thursday and will entire our picture by Saturday. Along with that will be increased moisture (humidity) and the chance of rain will again enter the picture. Not by humongous amounts, but it will be there.

For today, enjoy the afternoon and keep ones eyes glued to the WNW after the 3-4pm time frame until dark if your looking for those rain clouds.