"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Colder Yet On Bleak Friday - Warming Trend Sunday through End of Next Week!

FRONT to Clear Central between 2-5PM.
Image shows position of today's front per the GFS model at 4 PM
HAPPY THANKSGIVING: Odd temperature spread across the state this morning, with the cold air not playing favorites. Some areas in South Central are colder than in Pensacola even as a second front will go through 'dry' today. It seems to be easiest to locate outside of a wind shift line by the dew points at 2000 ft (or the standard 925mb layer) as shown above. The boundary being marked by the moisture to dry air (shown in whites and grays).  Otherwise, breezy this afternoon with winds from the NW and highs in the lower to mid 60Fs with only few to none clouds over all but a quick temperature fall late in the day as the sun begins to set.

BLEAK FRIDAY: Lows ranging through the 30Fs from the Daytona to Crestview Line (interior mainly) and then a cross the lower to mid 40Fs most everywhere else except parts of South Florida. Tomorrow afternoon will be cooler than this afternoon with highs in the 50Fs and up to the lower 60Fs Central and South (where it will be a bit warmer yet still). North winds but not strong or gusty at all.

SATURDAY: Wind begins to swing around to the NE  on Saturday with a warm up toward highs similar to what today's highs will be, perhaps a few degrees warmer. The true warm up begins overnight Saturday night toward Sunrise Sunday as easterly winds will bring mid-upper 60Fs to the east coast toward sunrise Sunday Morning but coler still inland as winds decouple overnight away from the beaches (mainly locations west of US1 will be the coldest) but warmest air will be found east of A1A from Canaveral and south.

SUNDAY: Highs in the lower to mid-70Fs  with east wind around 8-12 mph, very pleasant.

MONDAY - THURSDAY: Very little temperature variations along the immediate beaches with round the clock 70Fs or close to it. I bit warmer inland during the day, but also cooler inland over night. Prevailing east winds at a deeper level of the atmosphere will commence to allow low topped stratocumulus clouds to advect on shore at any time, but wouldn't expect any showers except south of Brevard County along the east coast, and light ones at that. 

WHEN IS THE NEXT COLD FRONT?: Good question, none for seen within 7 days and beyond that we lose model credibility so won't even surmise. The Jet Stream has been digging south over the East half of the country for quite some time, and after tomorrow will begin to lift up and out to the east of the U.S., and a much broader disorganized 'split flow' is to develop. 

As such, much of the country north of the Mason - Dixon line will be warming up next week with the colder air in general well to the north other than across parts of the Rocky Mountain region.  

Images below are radar estimated rainfall totals from the past couple of days off the JAX and MLB radars. The highest reported unofficial total I could find was a location in Edgewater where a CoCoRAHS observers came in with 8.10".  As surmised in a previous post, the biggest totals appears would be from Port St. John and north, as so it was (based on GFS model continuity).

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