"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Showers/Storms Unlikely East of US1/I-95 for Central Florida Today

(Image: A weak outflow boundary approaches Cape Canaveral late yesterday from a storm that was nearly 30 miles away and collapsed. This is the affect that occurs when winds just above the sea breeze boundary are from the west..but just above that level they were keeping storms well inland (from the north)
Leaving this one brief, as there is a very large disparity between my line of thinking and what I'm reading/seeing through media/internet outlets.
TODAY:  First off, sure hope I'm wrong about all this (below). We need some storms along the immediate coast. But...
To be brief, think the chance of coastal rains from Ft. Pierce to Daytona look pretty darned meager today. Showers and storms are approaching N. Lake County at time but having an impossible time penetrating further east than where they've reached the past 2 hours. Model guidance and latest MAPS forecast sounding data indicate continued warm air aloft today...and getting warmer aloft as the day goes by as steering winds veer more northerly to even the NNE by late. Thus, believe most activity that goes up along any sea breeze collision which will go up west of I-95 will be pushed S-SW and away from the coast during the early evening hours toward The Big Lake and along the west coast from Tampa-Ft. Myers.
Outside of sea breeze activity, other showers could go up near the Orlando area - Volusia County before noon due to outflow from early convection to the northwest of there..this activity could push SE-ESE initially while it remains low-topped..any robust activity though that could generate lightning will likely start to drop due southward.
Late morning activity still has a chance of forming along the east shores of Lake O near I-95/US1 though in Palm Beach-Dade County...but that should be few and far between. Further north in Central Florida...any rains in this region would have to occur between 11:30am-2pm right before and as the sea-breeze develops. Should be scoured out though by 2:30pm if there is any at all for that matter. Also, by this time high level clouds could have impinged from storms that have generated way out over the Atlantic this morning. Actually, the more I look at it even late afternoon/evening activity chances do not look too great any where. Surely someone will get the boot, but don't think it's going to be anywhere in Brevard/Volusia/or Indian River Counties.
SUNDAY: For now, looking at slightly better rain prospects..but not by much.
LATE SUNDAY- TUESDAY: For now seems to be the best chance of rain/storms for the East Half of the entire state. Models are STILL having a hard time coming to anything close to agreement...but they are getting there.
LATE WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND: So far...looks like all convection will be west of an Orlando - Lake Okeechobee Line as high pressure builds across the mid-Atlantic Region. Will watch for the possibility of nocturnal shower activity to begin for the immediate A1A corridor areas along all of the Florida East Coast as this time frame approaches.
TROPICS?:  Still not much going on.

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